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Welcome To The Portland Housing Blog!
2008-05-15 16:57:00
Here is your open thread...
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Bend Condo Conversion Opportunity
2008-05-07 16:17:00
A ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY!Take advantage of this unique investment opportunity on over eight acres within the city limits of Bend , Oegon. JJ Court, at the corner of Butler Market Road and Boyd Acres Road in the beautiful city of Bend, is the ideal opportunity just waiting for the right person. All of the usual red-tape hassles of changing apartments into condominiums have already been completed, and you are immediately set to convert.The price? A cool $13,850,000 or $94,217 per unit. Even if they find a willing buyer for the apartment complex what bank will fund this? Maybe our Bend readers can fill in the details of this failed flip.
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Tighter Lending Standards Are Here
2008-05-06 23:31:00
We've been talking about the tighter lending standards for a while. Here is a little evidence of it from the MailTribune:The Federal Reserve reports that more banks are tightening lending standards on home mortgages, other types of consumer loans and business loans in response to a spreading credit crisis.The Fed reported Monday that the percentage of banks reporting tighter lending standards was near historic highs for nearly all loan categories.The survey, conducted in April, found that nearly two-thirds of banks surveyed had tightened lending standards on traditional home mortgages with 15 percent saying those standards had been tightened considerably.The current credit crisis began last year with rising defaults in the market for subprime loans. Many of those subprime loans were packaged into mortgage-backed securities and sold to investors around the world.Those investors, however, have pulled back from the subprime market and from other types of credit as losses have soared w...
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March U of O Index of Economic Indicators
2008-05-06 15:01:00
Professor Duy released the March U of O Index of Economic Indicators this week and things aren?t improving.The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators? dropped sharply in March, fall­ing 0.7 percent to 101.9 (1997=100). Only two indicators?the interest rate spread and the weight-distance tax collected?im­proved. Remaining indicators held roughly steady or deteriorated. The index continues to decline at a rate consistent with weak economic growth and a high possibility of recession. Still, even if a technical recession is avoided, continued strains on household finances suggest a prolonged period of eco­nomic weakness.Click on any graph for a better image.As a general rule of thumb, a decline of 3.5 percent over six months, coupled with a decline in more than half of its components, signals that a recession is likely imminent.On the job market:Nonfarm payrolls fell by 2,700 employees during the month, although the February loss was revised to show a slight gain ...

Is Portland?s Spring Selling Season Over?
2008-05-05 16:11:00
The rain has subsided, the tulips are in bloom. It must be spring. Everybody is enjoying this except our local real estate professionals. I?ve been playing with the Pending Sales numbers that the RMLS publishes every month and I found something interesting; the spring selling season is a total bust.Last month my estimate predicted 1,633 sales would consummate during the month. The actual number was 1,691. I was short by about 4%, not bad for an amateur. Here is a look at my model vs. actual sales for the past 5 years. Based on the published pending sales I think about 1,740 sales will close in April, lets round up to 1,800 to be safe. Here is what that would look like. I?m being optimistic. For comparison Ron Ares is calling for less than 1,600 sales during the month.Either way you cut it Portland doesn't have much good news to share.
More About: Selling , Spring , Season

Housing Slowdown Hits WY
2008-05-03 17:56:00
From the Oregonian:Weyerhaeuser Co., one of the world's largest timberland owners and wood products manufacturers, said Friday it swung to a loss in the first quarter, hurt by a sagging housing market and low product prices.The Federal Way, Wash.-based company said it expects continued weakness in the housing market and higher fuel costs to hurt second-quarter earnings in its timberlands segment.Weyerhaeuser lost $148 million, or 70 cents a share, in the first three months of the year, compared with a profit of $720 million, or $3.09 a share, in the year-ago period. Results included $40 million in charges for closures in Weyerhaeuser's wood products business and $35 million for real estate impairments and reserves. Excluding these and other pretax items, the company lost $51 million, or 24 cents a share.Sales fell 24 percent to $3.39 billion from $4.5 billion a year ago.Thomson Financial said analysts expected a loss of 17 cents a share on sales of $3.63 billion. Those estimates t...
More About: Housing , Hits

Friday Riddle
2008-05-02 20:51:00
A reader of the blog sent me this message.Have you noticed that the Oregonian's Bought + Sold column (published Thursdays) has stopped printing real market value (RMV) figures? For years I have read the column and there was always the zip code, street address, sale price, and the RMV and almost without exception the sale price was way over the RMV. Then several weeks ago without comment the Oregonian stopped showing the RMV and listed just the sale price. I had to go to portlandmaps.com to get the RMV figures for interesting addresses.Guess what? Several of them sold for less than the RMV, especially those over $350K. I've e-mailed the Oregonian editors twice to inquire about this change but have never received a reply. I wonder if the RMV figures will return after the housing slump is over. I don't know much about it but I thought other readers would be interested?
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Tony Baloney Files For Bankruptcy
2008-05-01 23:18:00
Tony Marnella, or as we here at The Portland Housing Blog call him Tony Baloney, filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy last month.I told you nobody wants to buy your homes but you insisted that they were a great value. Apparently Portland buyers agreed with me.For more about the realtor/developer you can see our prior conversation. Here are my favorites:In the 20+ years I?ve been in the real estate industry, I?ve seen and experienced firsthand the various peaks and valleys of the real estate market. One of my biggest frustrations right now is the amount of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) being generated by the media about the state of the current real estate market and the local economy. In my opinion, there is a lot of misinformation and a failure to acknowledge the positives about our local real estate market. Our economy is in fact doing quite well and our real estate market is solid. Only the ?perception? of the market is bad. Our local market is not going to be affected by the sub-...
More About: Bankruptcy , Files , Tony

The Portland Real Estate Party Is Over
2008-05-01 09:37:00
The May issue of Oregon Business Magazine is out and guess what the lead story is?I had the privilege of sharing a cup of coffee with Ben as he was researching the housing market and I couldn?t wait to see his article. It is very long and I recommend people read the entire story. On Short Sales:By the time Scott Gephart moved from California to Oregon, he had become an expert in profiting from declining real estate markets. He founded Chaparral Real ty Group in Medford last August, and within six months he had built his business from three to 12 employees and leased a new 2,600-square-foot office.?I think we?re the only growing company in our market,? says Gephart. ?Everyone else is either shrinking or going out of business.?The key to Chaparral?s growth has been the short sale, a complex deal in which a home is sold for less than is owed on its mortgages and lenders agree to accept a loss rather than repossess the property. Gephart?s expertise has served him well in Medford, where m...
More About: Party , Estate , Real Estate , Portland

Real Estate Weakness Spills Over
2008-04-30 16:56:00
From the Register Guard:Home inspectors in Lane County endured an anxious winter, and the early spring real estate sales figures are offering little to sooth their nerves.Closed and pending sales were each down about one-third in March, compared with March 2007, according to the Regional Multiple Listing Service.Cumulatively, Lane County?s several dozen home inspection companies ? which are hired by buyers or sellers to inspect properties and report on their condition ? had a potential pool of 547 fewer houses to inspect since last September, compared with the same period during previous year.That?s a loss of as much as $200,000 in revenue to inspection firms.?The inspection business goes hand-in-hand with real estate sales,? said Sylvia Duerksen, executive director of the American Institute of Inspectors. ?It?s dropped significantly. There?s no sugarcoating it.?Some inspectors are working part-time fallback jobs to prop up their incomes. Others are dropping their prices to attract ...
More About: Estate , Real Estate , Real

Welcome to the Portland Housing Blog!
2008-04-30 16:42:00
Here is your open thread.
More About: Blog , Housing , Portland

February 2008 S&P Case-Shiller Index
2008-04-29 15:13:00
The S&P Case -Shiller Index is based on observed changes in home prices. It is designed to measure the increases or decreases in the market value of residential real estate.For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding any previous sale for the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired and are considered a ?repeat sale.? Sales pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.Sales pairs from the following counties are included in the Portland index: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, Clark (WA), and Skamania (WA).The first graph shows the year over year changes for the month of 2008 .html">February 2008 . The index consists of 20 cities and Charlotte is the only city showing price appreciation. Click on any of the graphs for a better image.The second graph shows the one month change for each of the 20 cities. All cities showed ...

Is The Cyan Alienating Its Target Demographic?
2008-04-28 17:01:00
The Cyan development between downtown and Portland State University is positioning itself as the greenest condo in the area. I received an email from the condo promoter about the start of their Green Salon Series. Basically it?s an orgasm of organic products and businesses. Here is the email.Organic catering by Phresh?Is the Cyan running the risk of alienating its client base? When I read it I wasn?t really attracted to this idea and I?m fairly conscious of the products I consume. It comes across as too commercial and superficial for the type of person they are courting.What do you think?
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Northwest At Risk Of Price Declines
2008-04-26 06:26:00
National City released its fourth quarter 2007 report last month and it offered a chilling look at Oregon?s metro areas.Metro areas in the Northwest seem to be the remaining pockets of froth, coincident with robust economies but at risk of price declines going forward??Bend Oregon tops the overvaluation list.According to National City, Oregon contains some of the most overvalued markets in the country. The first graph shows Northwest markets with their ?overvaluation? ranking. Click on any graph for a better image.The second graph shows Oregon metro home prices since the mid 80?s.The third graph shows Oregon metro valuation since the mid 80?s. Anything above zero indicates overvaluation, but doesn?t guarantee a price correction.The National City report covers 330 metro areas and encompasses 93% of all housing units. The overvalued regions are in red.
More About: Price , Risk , National City

The Columbian Stumbles Again
2008-04-24 17:26:00
Last week The Columbian trumpeted the drop in months of supply for the Vancouver housing market. The ratio dropped from 14.6 to 11.9; a balance market has between 6 and 8 months of supply.I feel obligated to compare their optimistic interpretation to the total supply of homes on the market.

Is The Bottom Near?
2008-04-24 17:16:00
Professor Duy shares his thoughts on when the bottom of the recession will occur?Tim Duy looks for signs that the bottom of the cycle is approaching
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People Who Can't Afford Homes Will Lose Them
2008-04-23 16:20:00
From the Portland Tribune:Here is a story about somebody who couldn't afford a home and is now losing it.Susan Shell dreamed of buying into a nicer Portland neighborhood where she could enroll her son at Grant High.But the single mom wound up stuck with a subprime mortgage loan she can?t afford and can?t refinance, on a home she cannot sell.As recession grips other communities around the country, the health of Portland?s economy rests partly on what happens to Shell and thousands like her, who hold shaky home loans poised to unravel in the coming months.President Bush and mortgage industry professionals advise people like Shell to contact their lenders and negotiate ?workouts,? where both parties agree to restructure loans and payment plans.Then people could remain in their homes. Lenders and investors could keep getting paid. And home foreclosures, which have propelled the nation?s economy into a tailspin, could subside.But in Shell?s experience, that plan isn?t working.?It?s all ...
More About: People , Homes

Portland Unemployment Up In March
2008-04-23 01:07:00
From the Columbian:The Vancouver-Portland area?s unemployment rate increased to 5.3 percent in March , compared to 5.0 percent in February, according to data released Monday by the Oregon Employment Department.Clark County?s March unemployment rate was 6.9 percent, up from the 6.7 percent February figure.The metropolitan region added 400 jobs in March, with the construction and health service sectors combining to add 1,700 jobs. Losses in other sectors, such as the financial industry, offset some of those gains. Since March 2007, the regional work force has expanded by 0.9 percent.Construction added jobs?
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Southern Oregon Unemployment Continues Rise
2008-04-22 21:19:00
From the MailTribune:The local unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent in March, up from 7.7 percent in February and 6.3 percent in March 2007. The number of unemployed in the labor force rose from 6,312 in March 2007 to 8,109 in March 2008.Jackson County employers continue to create new jobs, but not fast enough to keep pace with a growing workforce.Employment gains came in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and local government education, regional economist Guy Tauer said.Neighboring Josephine County saw its unemployment rate climb from 9.3 percent to 9.5 percent last month.Wow 9.5% unemployment.
More About: Oregon , Unemployment , Southern , Rise , Southern Oregon

Realtor Audit: Tony & Libby Kelly
2008-04-21 16:15:00
Libby is a second generation Realtor with a Masters in Education and B.A. in Biology.Tony is a graduate of the United States Air Force Academy with a B.S. in Engineering. He is also a former Fortune 500 high tech industry executive with vast experience in successfully managing international sales and marketing organizations. Tony has an MBA in Marketing.They specialize in providing a superior level of professional real estate services combining today's technology with yesterday's hands-on personalized care. As top producing listing and marketing specialists, they will get your home sold for top dollar and in a timely manner. They have been featured on HGTV's "HOUSE HUNTERS" and "MY HOUSE IS WORTH WHAT?".I sent the duo an email to see just how optimistic they are about the local housing market.Here are my questions to Libby & Tony:I?m thinking about buying a condo in the Tigard area but it seems like prices will be going down, can you tell me what you are seeing out there?Do y...
More About: Kelly , Audit , Libby

Eugene RMLS Market Report ? March 2008
2008-04-20 22:16:00
The median sale price for March 2008 was $228,500 this is a 3.6% decrease over the median sale price for March 2007.The Eugene residential real estate market peaked in June 2007 with a median sale price of $243,300. Prices have now fallen 6.1% from that peak.Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 8.4 months compared to the 4.5 months of supply for March 2007. A balanced market has between 6 and 8 months of supply.The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply.The third chart shows residential sales. 246 homes closed during the month compared to 347 the same month in 2007; a drop of 29%. The fourth chart show new residential listings. 621 homes entered the RMLS during the month compared to 686 the same month in 2007; a drop of 5%.Th...
More About: Market , Report , March 2008

Portland Rental Market Tightens in 2008
2008-04-20 22:02:00
From the Oregonian:For owners of rental property in the Portland area, 2008 is shaping up to be a banner year.Across the region, rental units are full or turning over quickly, rents are steadily rising, new units are in demand and tenant turnover is slow."We have 100 percent occupancy," says Chris Cournoyer of City Houses Inc., which rents residential units in Northeast and Northwest Portland. "Three to four units transition each month, but they're usually rented before they're vacated." RealFacts, a research organization and database publisher specializing in the multihousing market, reports that average Portland rent for the last quarter of 2007 was $934 monthly, a one-year increase of 8.4 percent. The occupancy rate for rentals was 95 percent, and, with home buying stalled by the subprime loan debacle, the number of potential tenants just keeps growing. "My theory is that people who would be buying houses are in rentals still. That makes it easier to rent and provides better te...
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Vancouver RMLS Market Action Report ? March 2008
2008-04-19 17:50:00
The median sale price for March 2008 was $250,000 this is a 5.7% decrease over the median sale price for March 2007.The Vancouver residential real estate market peaked in July 2007 with a median sale price of $269,900. Prices have now fallen 7.4% from that peak.Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) is at 11.9 months compared to the 7.0 months of supply in March 2007. A balanced market has between 6 and 8 months of supply.The first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. The inventory of homes is up 20.4% from the same month the year before.The third chart shows residential sales. 381 homes closed during the month compared to 538 the same month in 2007; a drop of 29%.The fourth chart show new residential listings. 1,212 homes entered the RM...
More About: Action , Market , Report

Oregon Commercial Real Estate Slow Down Begins
2008-04-18 21:45:00
From the DJC:The region?s real estate markets have taken an across-the-board dip in the first quarter of 2008, according to the latest quarterly findings. A report issued by Morris, Beggs & Simpson shows aflattening of the office market and a steep upswing in central city industrial and retail vacancy rates.National concerns about the economy keep industry sights toward the future more than the present, brokers profess.Fears of, and debates over, whether the country has slipped into a recession have createda ?hurry up and wait? environment for brokers, says Jennifer Medak, a vice president at Norris, Beggs & Simpson.The vacancy rate for Portland?s central-city office market remains flat from where it was last quarter, at about 10 percent, but has dropped two percentage points from where it was last year.The local numbers, though in no way a harbinger of market collapse, are indicative of a slowing economy and tightening lending standards catching up with the Portland real es...
More About: Commercial , Estate , Real Estate , Oregon , Real

Oregon Foreclosures up 118% in March 2008.
2008-04-17 03:52:00
RealtyTrac released their March 2008 foreclosure data this week and Oregon ranks 22nd in the nation for per household foreclosures.There were 1,119 notices of defaults this month, up 106% from March 2007. The bank files a notice of default when a mortgage payment is late and attempts to reconcile the issue out of court have failed. Click on any graph for a better image.If the homeowner does not pay all the default balance within 90 days then the bank records a notice of trustee sale with the county and schedules a trustee's sale. There were 434 notices of trustee sales in March, up 144% from March 2007.The best way to compare state foreclosure rates is with a penetration or per household rate. Here is a comparison of the regions states. A larger number indicates fewer foreclosures.Here is a map of the nation from RealtyTrac.
More About: Foreclosures , Realty

Dreaming On The Oregon Coast
2008-04-17 00:38:00
Located in Nehalem Oregon , Hilltop Estates is offering multiple incentives to entice buyers to buy one of their overpriced homes. Check out the incentives: Here are my calculations:1: $10,0002: $20,000 ($1,600/month)3: $1,200 ($100/month)4: $2,500Total: $33,700Just cut the price already! You're asking $230 per sq/ft.The website lists Dave Samsel as the builder; You're dreaming buddy. Nobody will go for this.Phase II: Coming Soon, but not too soon.
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SoWhat Affordable Housing Isn?t Going To Happen
2008-04-16 21:30:00
From the Oregonian:In 2003, when Portland city leaders brokered plans for the $2 billion South Waterfront development, they pledged that the new, taxpayer-supported district would offer housing for everyone, not just the rich.Five years later, that hasn't happened.Under the deal, work on the first affordable apartment building was scheduled to finish by December 2006.Today, construction among the district's condo towers has yet to start.The project that the Portland Development Commission hoped would break ground last fall has fallen to a scheduled summer ground-breaking. A second affordable apartment project faces big obstacles to meet its deadline, too.What's the problem?Yes, national economic forces have hit South Waterfront: Financial market contortions mean it's harder to sell low-income housing tax credits needed to build the apartments.But the PDC also ran into obstacles: a ballooning budget for an aerial tram to Oregon Health & Science University, design changes on t...
More About: Housing , Affordable housing

Portland Existing Homes Sales Forecast
2008-04-15 17:10:00
Last month several realtors noted my closed sales forecast for 2008 was a low-ball estimate. I thought it would be a good idea to update my estimate this month since the March RMLS report includes quarterly data.Real estate sales are seasonal yet predictable. Typically 19% to 22% of the annual sales occur in the first quarter of the year. With this we can estimate the annual sales for 2008.The percent of total sales that occurred in the first quarter are as follows:2005 19.4%2006 21.0%2007 22.7%We can see the effects of the slow down as it picks up steam. To forecast I?ll be conservative and say that 19.5% of 2008 sales occurred in the first quarter of the year. This is probably low and will result in an overstatement of closed sales.My forecast remains at 21,800 existing homes to close in 2008; sales haven?t been this slow since 1993.If I were to low-ball it and say 23% of sales occurred in the first quarter then the year end total would be about 18,500.
More About: Sales , Portland , Homes , Forecast

Portland RMLS Market Action Report ? March 2008
2008-04-15 03:53:00
The median sale price for March 2008 was $286,500 this is a .1% increase over the median sale price for March 2007.The Portland residential real estate market peaked in August 2007 with a median sale price of $300,000. Prices have now fallen 4.5% from that peak.Months of supply (total inventory/monthly sales) sits at 9.1 months compared to the 3.8 months of supply for March 2007. A balanced market has between 6 and 8 months of supplyThe first graph compares the median and average sale price with the months of supply. Click on any graph for a sharper image.The second graph shows the total supply of homes available for sale. This is simply a calculation of the months closed sales multiplied by the months of supply. The inventory of homes is up 45.9% from the same month the year before.The third chart shows closed sales by month. Closed sales fell 39% from the same month the year before.The fourth chart shows new listings by month. New listings decreased by 1.8% from the same month the...
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Oregon's Unemployment Rate Up In March
2008-04-14 21:30:00
From the Portland Business Journal:Oregon's unemployment rate in March rose 0.3 percent to 5.7 percent.The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent in March from 4.8 percent in February.In March, Oregon's seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined 2,700, following a revised gain of 900 jobs in February.In March, several major industries recorded substantial seasonally adjusted job declines: trade, transportation, and utilities (-1,600 jobs), manufacturing (-1,300), construction (-700) and leisure and hospitality (-700).The losses were partially balanced by seasonally adjusted job gains in educational and health services (+1,300 jobs) and government (+1,100).
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