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WOT 5-10-2008
2008-05-10 00:00:00
In Da House -- Crazy Frog Part of our formula for success at the Irvine Housing Blog is to be entertaining. Reading about the housing market can be dry and boring, or it can be lively and entertaining. We always try to make it fun, funny and entertaining.   My wife cannot stop laughing at the crazy frog... We have done many kinds of posts at the IHB: Analysis Flips Fraud WTF prices Big losses HELOC abuse We try to inject fun and humor in our posts by adding music, making fun of bad descriptions, and creating funny graphics. If possible we try to weave all these together in a manner that informs as well as entertains. So tell us what you like about the IHB and what you would like to see more of. If you have ideas for other posts you would like to see, please share them here.
More About: 2008

FSBO - For Sale By Optimist
2008-05-09 00:00:00
Don't Dream It's Over -- Crowded House You don't need a realtor to sell a house. A title company can take care of most paperwork, and an attorney can draft the rest for a minimal fee. Realtors are supposed to be experts at sales and marketing, but if you possess these skills, there is no need to pay someone 6% to draft a poorly written property description and sit in your house on the weekends. You can do it yourself and save a great deal of money. There are advantages of to selling on your own. You don't have to base your asking price on comparable properties. You can make up a number and put the property for sale for whatever price you want. There is no neutral market observer to tell you your price might be too high. Who needs to pay attention to comps? Also, you don't have to worry about the time and money your realtor is going to spend marketing your home because you will pay all those expenses yourself. Today's featured property has been featured on IHB before. The prev...
More About: For Sale , Sale

Woods WTF
2008-05-09 00:00:00
Norwegian Wood -- The Beatles The WTF prices of Great Housing Bubble are an obvious illustration of the greater fool theory. Usually, the detachment from fundamental values is not so great. Prices that look foolish in retrospect do not always look foolish in the moment. Irvine house prices from 2004 onward looked foolish even as people were paying them. The absurdity of the situation becomes even more apparent when you see the asking prices of those who purchased at the peak of the Ponzi scheme as they look to find the next greater fool. Today's property is one dramatic illustration. These buyers grossly overpaid right at the peak in summer of 2006. Rather than admit defeat, they are asking for 50% appreciation from the peak with an asking price that is so ridiculous you just have to ask, "WTF?" Asking Price: $2,975,000 Income Requirement: $743,750 Downpayment Needed: $595,000 Equity Burn: $24,791 Purchase Price:  $1,882,500 Purchase Date: 7/13/2006 Address: 28 Woods Tra...

35% Off the Peak
2008-05-07 00:00:00
Comfortably Numb -- Pink Floyd Have you become numb to the losses we see here at the Irvine Housing Blog? The dollar amounts we are talking about are almost too large to comprehend. Monday's property is going to be an over $500,000 loss. Today's is $140,000, and it is a tiny condo. It can be hard to relate to the size of these numbers, and even harder to relate when it is a big corporation losing most of the money. These losses will continue to mount. If the lenders had to do a mark-to-market on all their loans based on the value of the underlying collateral, our entire financial system might collapse. It might anyway. I guess it is a good thing that we have runaway consumer price inflation, or the monetary deflation of all these bank losses would be a real problem. Asking Price: $232,000 Income Requirement: $58,000 Downpayment Needed: $46,400 Monthly Equity Burn: $1,933 Purchase Price:  $359,000 Purchase Date: 10/31/2006 Address: 47 Lakepines, Irvine, CA 92620 Beds:...
More About: Peak , The Peak

The Ultimate Post
2008-05-07 00:00:00
The Ultimate Sin -- Ozzy Osbourne What would be the ultimate post we could do at the Irvine Housing Blog? We have been getting a great deal of attention lately for our posts on HELOC abuse, and our post on Monday showing the $500,000 loss was also very well received. This is only one way you can top what we have done to date: combine the two. Today's featured property is the new pinnacle. We are raising the bar. Today, we have a property where the owner took out over $1,000,000 in a series of small refinances and general HELOC abuse, and now the lender who has taken back the property is looking at a $650,000 loss. It does make me wonder... How can I get a lender to give me $1,000,000 that I don't have to pay back? Asking Price: $895,000 Income Requirement: $223,750 Downpayment Needed: $179,000 Total Property Debt: $1,490,000 Lender Purchase Price: $909,195 Lender Purchase Date: 3/19/2008 FB Purchase Price: $520,000 FB Purchase Date: 4/6/2000 Address: 3 Green Hollow, Irvine, CA ...
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How to Lose $500,000 in a Year
2008-05-05 00:00:00
Ship of Fools -- Robert Plant Today we are breaking with our tradition of profiling a $250,000 loss, and we are going big time -- $500,000 lost on one property. This flip is sunk. These flippers are so far underwater, they are not on a ship of fools; they are on a submarine. Asking Price: $799,000 Income Requirement: $199,750 Downpayment Needed: $159,800 Monthly Equity Burn: $6,658 Purchase Price:  $1,299,000 Purchase Date: 6/8/2007 Address: 20 Silver Cres, Irvine, CA 92603 Beds: 4 Baths: 2 Sq. Ft.: 2,128 $/Sq. Ft.: $376 Lot Size: 6,741 Sq. Ft. Property Type: Single Family Residence Style: Contemporary Year Built: 1977 Stories: 1 Level View: Hills Area: Turtle Rock County: Orange MLS#: S529152 Source: SoCalMLS Status: Active On Redfin: 17 days Fixer-upper BRING YOUR CONTRACTOR....This home has great potential. Lowest priced detached home in Turtlerock. Endless possibilities with this spacious single level ho...

WOT 5-3-2008
2008-05-03 00:00:00
Fix You -- Coldplay Everyone either has or will be impacted by the housing bubble. It will be one of the defining events of our lifetimes. It changed lives. Like many others who either could not or would not buy, I had to rent during the housing bubble. So tell us, how did the housing bubble affect you? . When you try your best but you don't succeedWhen you get what you want but not what you needWhen you feel so tired but you can't sleepStuck in reverse.And the tears come streaming down your faceWhen you lose something you can't replaceWhen you love someone but it goes to wasteCould it be worse?Lights will guide you homeAnd ignite your bonesAnd I will try to fix youAnd high up above or down belowWhen you're too in love to let it goBut if you never try you'll never know"Just what your worth"Lights will guide you homeAnd ignite your bonesAnd I will try to fix youTears stream, down on your faceWhen you lose something you cannot replaceTears stream down your face and I...Tears st...
More About: 2008

Silent Spring
2008-05-03 00:00:00
Silent Scream -- Slayer It doesn't look like we are going to have a bear rally this spring. The rate of price decline is accelerating, credit is still tightening, foreclosures are still increasing, job losses are mounting, mortgage interest rates are rising, inflation is rising, the economy is sputtering, and sales are still anemic. Did I forget anything? Rachel Carson wrote Silent Spring in 1962 about the death of eagles caused by DDT. Who will write about our silent spring? Oh yeah, I did. Asking Price: $670,000 Income Requirement: $167,500 Downpayment Needed: $134,000 Monthly Equity Burn: $7,166 Purchase Price:  $860,000 (via Sitex) Purchase Date: 5/19/2006 Address: 36 New Hampshire, Irvine, CA 92606 Beds: 4 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 2,270 $/Sq. Ft.: $295 Lot Size: 3,500 Sq. Ft. Property Type: Single Family Residence Style: Colonial Year Built: 2000 Stories: 2 Levels Area: Walnut County: Orange MLS#: P626711 Source: SoCalMLS S...
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Short
2008-05-01 00:00:00
Short People -- Randy Newman Short sellers got no reason to hope. They got little houses, little pets, they go round borrowing great big debts. They got little kitchens, little stoves, granite counters; they are selling in droves. Don't want no short sales, don't want no short sales round here. Today's featured property is a typical 100% financing deal gone bad. There are two types of distressed properties that have caused the 20%+ declines we have seen in the last year: 100% financing deals and HELOC abusers. We have profiled many of each type. They have set the stage for the next wave of foreclosures when all the ARMs begin to explode. We haven't begun to see the fallout from that problem yet. Asking Price: $780,000 Income Requirement: $195,000 Downpayment Needed: $156,000 Monthly Equity Burn: $6,500 Purchase Price: $960,000 Purchase Date: 5/19/2006 Address: 26 Midsummer #1, Irvine, CA 92620 Beds: 4 Baths: 4 Sq. Ft.: 2,386 $/Sq. Ft.: $327 Lot Size: - Propert...
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Craving
2008-04-30 21:30:00
Silently Craving -- Michael Kiske The Second Noble Truth of the Buddha is that all suffering is caused by craving. People who took out HELOCs to fuel consumer spending gave in to craving, and they are about to endure a period of extreme suffering in their lives. People crave for just about everything they believe money can buy: cars, boats, vacations, status, lovers, self-esteem, and many other things or states of mind. HELOCs enabled people to obtain things that would have been denied to them under ordinary circumstances. When people obtain objects of their desire, it leads to a temporary state of satiation followed by an even more intense wanting. It is like drinking salt water: you think it helps, but drinking it makes you even more dehydrated and causes you to crave water even more. Those that drank the kool aid of the Great Housing Bubble took out HELOCS and tried to satisfy the craving beast inside. It didn't work. What is worse for them is that they are now accustomed to fee...

Cheap?
2008-04-29 21:30:00
Cheap is relative. Compared to pricing at the peak, the prices of houses in Irvine right now are cheap. Of course, they will get cheaper, but today's property caught my attention because I did not get an overwhelming feeling of revulsion at the high price. That is real progress. I am not sure what attracted me to this property. Perhaps it is like ZZ Top's Cheap Sunglasses. We are the Irvine Housing Blog, and I rarely profile properties outside of Irvine, but today's property is in the Irvine school district, and although it is in Tustin, it is certainly Irvine adjacent.  Asking Price: $507,900 Income Requirement: $126,975 Downpayment Needed: $101,580 Lender Purchase Price: $503,477 Lender Purchase Date: 1/28/2008 FB Purchase Price: $598,000 FB Purchase Date: 9/2/2005 Address: 362 Flyers Lane, Tustin, CA 92782 Beds: 3 Baths: 4 Sq. Ft.: 1,938 $/Sq. Ft.: $262 Lot Size: - Type: Condominium Style: Contemporary Year Built: 2005 Stories: Three or More Levels ...
More About: Cheap

Give Up
2008-04-28 21:30:00
Tear the Roof Off The Sucker (Give Up The Funk) -- Parliament Tear the roof off? Remember when Jim Cramer said we should plow under the Inland Empire? That might be a bit extreme, but these lazy houses need to be punished somehow, don't they? Houses used to provide a steady supplemental income, and now they don't. Think about all the people out there who became accustomed to the free money their houses were generating. If I were one of them, I would be pretty angry. Today's featured property is another in our endless series on HELOC abuse. For any of you that thought this was not common, I hope all these posts are opening your eyes to the reality of the situation. HELOC abuse is everywhere, and these people are watching their supplemental income disappear which in turn is taking down our local economy. Are these cases the exception rather than the rule? It really doesn't matter, does it? There are enough of these properties to materially impact the market. These are properties t...
More About: Give up

WOT 4-26-2008
2008-04-27 00:00:00
Free Money -- Patti Smith   Every night before I go to sleepFind a ticket, win a lottery,Scoop the pearls up from the seaCash them in and buy you all the things you need.Every night before I rest my headSee those dollar bills go swirling 'round my bed.I know they're stolen, but I don't feel bad.I take that money, buy you things you never had.Oh, baby, it would mean so much to me,Oh, baby, to buy you all the things you need for free.I'll buy you a jet plane, baby,Get you on a higher plane to a jet streamAnd take you through the stratosphereAnd check out the planets there and then take you downDeep where it's hot, hot in Arabia, babia, then cool, cold fields of snowAnd we'll roll, dream, roll, dream, roll, roll, dream, dream.When we dream it, when we dream it, when we dream it,We'll dream it, dream it for free, free money,Free money, free money, free money, free money, free money, free money.Every night before I go to sleepFind a ticket, win a lottery.Every night before I ...
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Tip
2008-04-25 00:00:00
Tiptoe Through The Tulips -- Tim Tiny Isn't that the most annoying song you have ever heard? Can you fathom a reason why someone would write and record it? In the same way, can you imagine why someone would buy this old condo backing on the 5 for $699,000? Some things you look back on and go, WTF? Actually, this does illustrate the mindset of the bubble rather well. Any property is a good property when prices are going up. Quality doesn't matter because the property's desirability comes from increasing prices, not from the characteristics of the property itself. This guy bought the tip; he purchased on the high tick of the market action. There was nowhere to go but down. Asking Price: $263,000 Income Requirement: $65,750 Downpayment Needed: $52,600 Monthly Equity Burn: $2,191 Purchase Price: $435,000 Purchase Date: 7/3/2006 Address: 8 Orangetip, Irvine, CA 92604 Beds: 3 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 1,785 $/Sq. Ft.: $308 Lot Size: 2,517 Sq. Ft. Type: ...

Money’s Too Tight
2008-04-24 21:30:00
Money's Too Tight to Mention -- Simply Red Everyone was livin' large with all that HELOC money coming in. Now that the housing ATM has been shut off, money is too tight to mention. Asking Price: $549,900 Income Requirement: $137,475 Downpayment Needed: $109,980 Lender Purchase Price: $459,200 Lender Purchase Date: 3/12/2008 FB Purchase Price: $649,500 FB Purchase Date: 12/28/2006 Address: 37 Olivehurst, Irvine, CA 92602 Beds: 3 Baths: 2 Sq. Ft.: 1,752 $/Sq. Ft.: $314 Lot Size: - Type: Condominium Style: Traditional Year Built: 2001 Stories: Two Levels Area: Northpark County: Orange MLS#: S528888 Status: Active On Redfin: 8 days Wonderful large model in Northpark/Auburn. Large bedrooms, separate laundry room, vaulted ceilings, granite counter tops, stainless appliances. Bank to paint the entire interior, clean the carpets and replace the garage door opener.  Did you notice the pergraniteel? . . I find it interesting that this property went...

Gilligan?s Aisle
2008-04-24 00:00:00
The Ballad of Gilligan's Island -- George Wyle and Sherwood Shwartz Would you like to get stranded on Alicante Isle? (I know it is spelled Aisle and it means something else, but just go with it.) People buying properties as flips during the down cycle are betting on the return of the market. There is no shortage of ignorant prognostications of the bottom, and if flippers are foolish enough to believe them, then they deserve to become bagholders. If flippers and lenders became the bagholders for the decline, Karma would be delivering its comeuppance. Flippers hope to get in and out of a property quickly, and like the passengers on the US Minnow who thought they were going on a 3 hour tour, getting off the island will likely take much longer than planned. They end up stranded in a condo searching desperately for a way to get out. The market will eventually rescue them. The castaways of Gilligan's Island were only trapped for 4 years until the series was mercifully cancelled. The fli...

Quail Hell Comp Killer
2008-04-22 00:00:00
Ghost Town -- The Specials Did you see the recent CNN article on Irvine, Welcome to subprime's ghost town? How about the post at Calculated Risk on the See-through buildings - reminiscent of the '80s. The Business Week article The Other Orange County about the boom town gone bust? We are becoming the center of attention as the housing bubble deflates because the activities here were largely responsible for inflating it. Are we reaping what we sowed? The rest of the nation seems to think so... Today's featured property was featured before back in November of 2007. It is back now as REO. Last year it was offered as a short sale for $529,000. Anyone who thought about buying that one will be happy they didn't. Now it is for sale for $459,900. Asking Price: $459,900 Income Requirement: $114,975 Downpayment Needed: $91,980 Lender Purchase Price: $535,500 Lender Purchase Date: 1/28/2008 FB Purchase Price: $567,500 FB Purchase Date: 12/29/2004 Address: 109 Reunion, Irvine, CA 92603 &...
More About: Comp , Killer , Hell

Low Watermarke
2008-04-22 00:00:00
Water Runs Dry -- Boys II Men Don't buy now. Just say no. Don't let your downpayment wash away with the declining market. As Boys II Men say "We'll make the biggest mistake of our lives. Don't do it baby" Today's featured property is a major comp killer establishing a new low water mark in the Watermarke development. They developers of this property are geniuses. They started a high-end apartment complex just as the bubble was taking off, and being opportunistic, they decided to convert the properties to condos, and they made a fortune off the frenzied buying of the Great Housing Bubble. The property was purchased on May 18, 2005 for $367,500. It was flipped on July 3, 2006 for $435,000 right at the peak. The 2006 purchaser used 100% financing (big surprise,) with a $348,000 first and a $78,000 second. The property went REO on January 23, 2008 for $324,900. It appears as if the loans were originated by IndyMac. It was purchased by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company, and the ...

Please Help Me Get Published
2008-04-22 00:00:00
    The Great Housing Bubble Book Proposal -- Irvine Housing Blog.pdf I have completed my manuscript on The Great Housing Bubble. I have never published a book, and I know very little about the publishing industry. It was suggested to me that I use the power of the blog to get some help. Please, help me. My first attempt at a book proposal is contained in the PDF link above. It contains the information typical of a submission including a table to contents, a list of tables and exhibits, the preface explaining why I wrote the book, and introduction describing the book in more detail, and 2 sample chapters. Advice on writing a good book proposal would also be appreciated. If any of you know publishers or agents who could help me get my manuscript in print, I would appreciate any advice or contacts you can offer. My first choice would be a large, commercial publisher. I would like this book to reach the widest possible audience. Smaller publishers, niche publishers or Univers...
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WOT 4-19-2008
2008-04-20 00:00:00
Lurker's Post For all you readers out there who have never posted before, please say hello. We know you are out there. This is your chance to break the ice...    
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Rental Parity?
2008-04-19 00:00:00
Savin' Me -- Nickelback   Today's property has been featured before, but the price reduction is so significant, I thought it worthy of a new post. This property may be selling for rental parity. One of the key concepts we have been espousing here at the Irvine Housing Blog is the idea that prices will bottom at rental parity. When a potential homebuyer can save money versus renting, it makes sense to own. A homeowner does not need appreciation for real estate to be a sound financial investment. If you are saving money versus renting, you are coming out ahead. This property can likely be owned for its rental value. If you are willing to live there long term, you will see substantial savings over renters who face subsequent rental increases. Of course, you have to want to live there, and that is the problem with this property and all apartment-like condos for that matter: They are transitory housing. These units will likely fall below rental parity. They should bottom out at pr...
More About: Rental

What Goes Up?
2008-04-17 00:00:00
What Goes Around... Comes Around -- Justin Timberlake What goes up must go down, and what goes around comes around. Markets move in cycles, and although they can trend for significant periods of time, all price trends eventually reverse. Real estate markets usually trend for very long periods, and we are only 2 years into what is likely to be a 6-8 year decline. We are nowhere near the bottom. I imagine most people with toxic financing who need to refinance really don't want to think about it. It is probably making them sick, and they can't believe it is ending this way. They are shocked it is going down. As Justin Timberlake points out, "What Goes Around... Comes Around." Today's property is part of the ongoing carnage in the Collage complex in Northwood. We have profiled this neighborhood before. It is one neighborhood in Northwood showing serious distress. The featured property is a toxic financing victim (and we even have a new graphic to go with it.) The owner purchased in e...

WOT 4-12-2008
2008-04-16 00:00:00
  Just in case any of you forgot, about 1/3 of all loans originated in 2005 and 2006 in California were Option ARMS. Very few if any of the people with those loans will be able to refinance.
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Greed Killing
2008-04-16 00:00:00
Greed Killing -- Napalm Death . Financial manias are built by greed and fear: the two motivations driving the fluctuation of prices in all financial markets. When prices get greatly detached from fundamental valuations, the market is poised for a dramatic fall. There is a phenomenon in residential real estate markets where foreclosures become bank-owned properties (REO) that causes prices to drop. Today's post explores the impact of a single REO in a neighborhood as it lowers the values for everyone else. Asking Price: $614,900 Income Requirement: $153,725 Downpayment Needed: $122,980 Monthly Equity Burn: $5,124 Lender Purchase Price: $606,300 Buyer Purchase Price: $758,000 Purchase Date: 6/13/2005 Address: 116 Tall Oak, Irvine, CA 92603 Beds: 3 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 1,766 $/Sq. Ft.: $348 Lot Size: - Type: Condominium Style: Other Year Built: 2004 Stories: Three or More Levels Area: Quail Hill County: Orange MLS#: P631509 Status: Active On Redfin: 3...
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Levee Breaks
2008-04-16 00:00:00
When the Levee Breaks -- Led Zeppelin . Today's featured property is another mortgage equity withdrawal casualty. Properties like this underscore the dangers of partaking in the appreciation kool aid of the Great Housing Bubble. Most, if not all, of the people who believed in endless appreciation and serial refinancing took out their equity. Many utilized Option ARMs, and they are going to lose their homes. Think about the ramifications of that belief and the decision it influenced: Homeowners who did not take out their equity and refinance with Option ARMs are not going to be in financial trouble, and they will keep their homes. Those that did take out their equity are going to lose their homes. This is one very important life decision supported by a bevy of fallacious beliefs with very serious consequences. Financial bubbles are only fun when they are inflating... Mortgage Equity Withdrawal 1991-2007 There could be any of a number of reasons this house is for sale no...

Vintage
2008-04-16 00:00:00
  . Another day, another market crushing REO. I have to wonder when the knife catchers will start to realize there is a steady flow of these properties entering the market. It isn't like you need to buy this one because it is the only good deal in the market, and it isn't going to be the only one we will see in the future. In fact, as each one of these comes on the market, they lower the comps and cause a whole new wave of foreclosures as all the overextended homeowners in the area lose their ability to refinance. We are witnessing the first stage of the market's downward spiral.   Asking Price: $601,400 Income Requirement: $150,350 Downpayment Needed: $120,280 Monthly Equity Burn: $5,011 Lender Purchase Price: $625,338 Borrower Purchase Price: $745,000 Lender Purchase Date: 3/27/2008 Borrower Purchase Date: 11/30/2006 Address: 176 Vintage , Irvine, CA 92620 Beds: 3 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 1,580 $/Sq. Ft.: $381 Lot Size: - Type: Condominium Sty...

WOT 4-12-2008
2008-04-12 00:00:00
Just in case any of you forgot, about 1/3 of all loans originated in 2005 and 2006 in California were Option ARMS. Very few if any of the people with those loans will be able to refinance.
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Jefferson
2008-04-12 00:00:00
. Thomas Jefferson believed "Financiers, bankers and industrialists make cities the cesspools of corruption, and should be avoided." It is hard to argue with him given it is the actions of lenders that enabled the Great Housing Bubble. Today's property illustrates why something needs to be done to prevent irrational exuberance from creating volatility in our real estate markets. The family that bought this property put 25% down, and although they started with an Option ARM, they refinanced in 2006 into a fixed-rate mortgage. They tasted the kool aid and did not find it palatable. Families like this should not get screwed based on the timing of their purchases due to life's circumstances. From the photos, it appears they have young children. They probably bought this as a family house. People should be able to do this without losing their life savings. If lenders did not enable people to overborrow, prices would rise about 4.5% a year, and people wouldn't have to worry about when ...

American Idiots
2008-04-10 00:00:00
. . The National Association of Realtors hopes that the American sheople are American idiots. They control the media message nearly everywhere, and they constantly push their self-serving agenda: it is always a good time to buy or sell and generate a commission. Unfortunately, you can't even find the truth in newspapers anymore. Does anyone think the OC Register would be willing to write stories about how and why the market is tanking? If they did, I suspect their real estate advertising section would get a lot smaller. People come to the Irvine Housing Blog because we tell them the truth about falling prices, and we explain why prices will continue to fall. Last week I wrote a post called Inventory Panic. In that post, I mentioned that there are a large number of bank owned properties not yet for sale on the MLS. When these get listed and sold, they will continue to push prices lower. Currently, there are more foreclosures each month than there are sales, and Irvine is ...
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A New Season
2008-04-10 00:00:00
. . Today's property is an example of how the market crash hurts ordinary people. This property is owned by a couple, and although I do not know them, I suspect they are a young couple who purchased this as their first home and they were hoping to do a move up later. That is how the real estate game is played around here. I don't see any data on the first mortgage, but there is a HELOC for $116,850. Assuming this is 20% of the purchase price, I have estimated the purchase price at $584,250 which is consistent with the tax assessment. Therefore, they likely have a first mortgage for $467,400. I can't feel too sorry for them as they don't appear to have any money in the transaction. They are priced over the market and praying for a knife catcher to come bail them out. It probably is not going to happen.   Asking Price: $549,000 Income Requirement: $137,250 Downpayment Needed: $109,800 Monthly Equity Burn: $4,575 Purchase Price: $584,250 -- I think. Purchase Dat...
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