New York City Housing Bubble - 'The BIG Picture'

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Banks Face 'Systemic Margin Call', $325 billion Hit
2008-03-09 20:28:00
Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit by Reuters - snip:NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co, said in a report late on Friday.JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week."A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call." The credit crisis that began about a year ago will likely intensify after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most definitely signals recession," JP...
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In Recession, No Doubt About It - 6% Of All Homeowners Delinquent On Mortga
2008-03-08 14:16:00
Unease Erodes Ambition in NY Real Estate by NY Sun - snip:After years of sustained growth marked by grandiose, ambitious plans for the city, the real estate development industry is displaying troubling symptoms. The number of citywide building permits is expected to drop, public and private funding for projects is drying up, and a stream of multibillion-dollar plans is coming in over budget and behind schedule, with many designs being scaled back or scrapped altogether. "There are very disquieting signs that have ominous implications for the next few years," the president of the New York Building Congress, Richard Anderson, said....US Mortgage Market Needs $1 Trillion by MarketWatch - snip:Why are interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rising even as the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates and yields on Treasury bonds fall? The answer is that the mortgage market is short of roughly $1 trillion in capital, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey....
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Home Equity Whacked Back To 1945
2008-03-07 03:18:00
Home equity falls below 50 percent by AP - snip:...Homeowners' portion of equity slipped to downwardly revised 49.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007, the central bank reported in its quarterly U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts, and declined further to 47.9 percent in the fourth quarter ? the third straight quarter it was under 50 percent. That marks the first time homeowners' debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945...Mortgage Foreclosures Increase to All-Time High as Owners 'Give Up'by Bloomberg - snip:US mortgage foreclosures rose to an all-time high at the end of 2007 as borrowers with adjustable-rate loans walked away from properties before their payments increased, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today... "We're seeing people give up even before they get to the reset because they couldn't afford the home in the first place,'' said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based trade ...
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US Post Bubble Recession - Not A Cookie Cut Situation
2008-03-07 02:09:00
Double Bubble Trouble by Stephen Roach for NYT - snip:AMID increasingly turbulent credit markets and ever-weaker reports on the economy, the Federal Reserve has been unusually swift and determined in its lowering of the overnight lending rate. The White House and Congress have moved quickly as well, approving rebates for families and tax breaks for businesses. And more monetary easing from the Fed could well be on the way. The central question for the economy is this: Will this medicine work? The same question was asked repeatedly in Japan during its ?lost decade? of the 1990s. Unfortunately, as was the case in Japan, the answer may be no. If the American economy were entering a standard cyclical downturn, there would be good reason to believe that a timely countercyclical stimulus like that devised by Washington would be effective. But this is not a standard cyclical downturn. It is a post-bubble recession...It's Not Just Housing Anymore by Econbrowser - snips:Not a good start t...
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NAHB - Worse Housing Downturn Since Great Depression
2008-03-05 04:11:00
Housing, deepest decline since Great Depression by MarketWatch - snip:Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating. The NAHB's latest forecast calls for new-home sales to drop 22% this year, bringing sales 55% under the peak reached in late 2005. Housing starts are predicted to tumble 31% in 2008, putting starts 60% off their high of three years ago. "More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread," said David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, on a conference call with reporters. "Housing is in a major contraction mode and will be another major, heavy weight on the economy in the first quarter"...Bernanke Urges Banks to Forgive Portions of Mortgagesby Bloomberg - snip:..."Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce...
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Warren Buffett: 'Significant Downturn' Possible
2008-03-04 00:58:00
Homeowners and Investors, Time to Get Real by Ben Stein - snip:...First, as I see it (and I'm often mistaken), the real estate market still has some serious falling to do. I base this on the fact that real estate in some of the most overpriced markets -- like Manhattan and the west side of Los Angeles -- have yet to fall dramatically. I, your humble servant, have been looking for a condo here in L.A. for my son, and I've been floored by how high the asking prices are for these dwellings. Yes, they've fallen, but they're still far higher than they were four or even five years ago. Keeping asking prices high may make sellers feel good, but it won't sell their homes. Consider this: On one hand, brokers tell me that prices haven't fallen much, and that they think that's a good sign. On the other hand, they complain that sales volume is way down....Buffett says U.S. in recession, stocks not cheap by USA Today - snip:Billionaire Warren Buffett says the US economy is essentially...

More 'Depression' Talk On CNN, ShadowStats Follow-up
2008-03-02 16:10:00
CNN follow-up on John Williams' ShadowStats interview"Washington not embracing magnitude of problems"Posted at BrainPhreakYouTube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dR7h8NBQU3 E------Washington Post - Inside the Mind Of a Debtor NationFinancial Times - Non-doms: move to New York City and pay moreNYT - Bankruptcy Court Asked to Sanction Countrywide Brookings - Alternative Policies for Tackling the Mortgage MessMarketWatch - U.S stocks enter March on uncertain footingBloomberg - Rosy Credit Ratings, Misery Matters, Ruble RumblingsWSJ - Hedge Funds' Fire Sales Send Muni-Bond Yields To Historic HighReuters - Global inflation rise puts central banks in a fixRutgers Univ - Collapse of Bretton Woods Cause the Great Inflation?Telegraph UK - UK banks write-off record £6.8bn in household debt New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture
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Inflation & M3 Money Supply by ShadowStats.com
2008-03-02 05:40:00
Click Image To PlayFed Underrates Inflation - CNN Money Video 4:36Economist John Williams from ShadowStats.comInflation is much higher than the Federal Reserve reports.John predicts a severe recession by year end,possible depression with excessive inflation.http://money.cnn.com/video/#/vi deo/news/2008/02/28/news.hunter.shadowsta ts.Feb28.cnnmoney New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture

There Is No Fix For The Problems We Face
2008-03-01 14:54:00
Facing Default, Some Walk Out on New Homes by NYT - snip:When Raymond Zulueta went into default on his mortgage last year, he did what a lot of people do. He worried. In a declining housing market, he owed more than the house was worth, and his mortgage payments, even on an interest-only loan, had shot up to $2,600, more than he could afford. "I was terrified," said Mr. Zulueta, who services automated teller machines for an armored car company in the San Francisco area. Then in January he learned about a new company in San Diego called You Walk Away that does just what its name says. For $995, it helps people walk away from their homes, ceding them to the banks in foreclosure. Last week he moved into a three-bedroom rental home for $1,200 a month, less than half the cost of his mortgage. The old house is now the lender's problem. "They took the negativity out of my life," Mr. Zulueta said of You Walk Away. "I was stressing over nothing"...Consumer Spending Stalls in January by NYT...
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NYC Mortgage Holders, US GDP, And Freddie Mac Whacked
2008-02-29 01:59:00
Defaults up 15 percent in NYC by NY Daily News - snips:Foreclosure woes continued to plague city homeowners in January, though at a much lower rate than seen nationally. There were 2,172 foreclosure-related filings on homes in the five boroughs, up 15% from December, according to RealtyTrac. That's one filing for every 1,508 households, in a city with about 3.3 million households. "The most important thing these numbers say is we're not done with the increases in foreclosures yet," RealtyTrac spokesman Daren Blomquist said.... In Queens, there were 985 filings last month, a 28% increase from December. That's one filing for every 844 households. The number of Manhattan foreclosure notices rose 33%, but amounted to just 89, or one per 9,211 households. There were 644 filings in Brooklyn, up 11% and one per 1,471 households. There were 205 notices sent in Staten Island, or one filing per 849 households. The Bronx was the only borough with fewer foreclosure notices than in December -...
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Mortgage Delinquency Rates Spike For All Loan Types
2008-02-28 02:08:00
S&P: Mortgage Bond Credit Worsens by CNN Money - snip:The delinquency rate for a wide range of home loans that provide the payments for mortgage bonds has spiked in the past year, Standard & Poor's said Wednesday. In a report detailing credit quality, S&P said most pools of home loans that secure bonds have suffered from more people missing payments on their debt... The delinquency rate was the worst for pooled subprime loans, or loans to people with bad credit. For pooled subprime loans issued in 2005, the delinquency rate is 34.4 percent, S&P said. Delinquencies have soared as much as 15 percent for some subprime loan pools. The only class of loan whose delinquency rate has moderated in the past year is home-equity line of credit loans issued last year. A home-equity line of credit is a credit line a bank offers borrowers using a house a collateral. For HELOC loans issued in 2005 and 2006, delinquencies are up 6 percent to 7 percent. Delinquencies on closed-end...
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FED Braces For Failed Banks & Foreclosures Skyrocket
2008-02-28 02:07:00
FDIC to Add Staff as Bank Failures Loom by WSJ - snips:The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is taking steps to brace for an increase in failed financial institutions as the nation's housing and credit markets continue to worsen. The FDIC is looking to bring back 25 retirees from its division of resolutions and receiverships. Many of these agency veterans likely worked for the FDIC during the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 financial institutions failed amid the savings-and-loan crisis. FDIC spokesman Andrew Gray said the agency was looking to bulk up "for preparedness purposes"... In public, policy makers are debating what role the government should play in trying to stabilize the housing market and minimize foreclosures. Meanwhile, regulators have worked discreetly behind the scenes to closely monitor the growing number of troubled banks and thrifts considered at risk. "Regulators are bracing for well over 100 bank failures in the next 12 to 24 months, with concen...
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No Hope That Housing Will Turn Around Anytime Soon
2008-02-26 01:14:00
U.S. Home Resales Fall to 9yr Low by Bloomberg - snips:Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell in January to the lowest level since records began nine years ago and prices slid for the sixth time in seven months, posing a threat to consumer spending, the largest part of the economy. Resales declined 0.4 percent, less than forecast, to an annual rate of 4.89 million from a revised 4.91 million in December that was higher than previously reported, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The figures indicate declines in home prices so far aren't sufficient to entice more buyers. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said today that the deepening rout in housing is having a "broader effect" on spending, and that a recession this year may be deeper than previous downturns. "The Federal Reserve's efforts to restore the mortgage market so credit is available so people can buy houses has largely failed," Peter Morici, an economics professor at the Universi...
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NYC RE Community Beginning To Accept Price Correction Reality
2008-02-24 17:20:00
Residential Rental Buyers Adapt to Today's Marketby NY Sun - snip:As the second month of 2008 comes to an end, members of the real estate community are beginning to accept the fact that the market has seen a price correction. Purchasers of residential rental property in New York City have had to adopt a whole new terminology, with phrases like "all-cash purchaser," "seller financing," "full and limited recourse," "higher debt service coverage," "lower loan to values," and "personal guarantees"...Credit Card Delinquency / HELOC Freeze / Ambac Bailoutby NY UrbanDigs - snip:Ahhhh, nothing like a good bond insurer bailout rumor to save the day for wall street! Funny, how every rally these days is rooted either from a bailout rumor or a fed rate cut rumor; solid stuff! Anyway, I had a conversation with a family friend a week ago who recently LOST HER LINE OF CREDIT on a HELOC, but I didn't put much thought into it until CR's post today. All this stuff really means something and it beg...
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10.3% Of Homeowners UpsideDown On Mortgage
2008-02-23 00:50:00
8.8 million homeowners underwater by NYT - snip:Prodded in part by some of the nation?s biggest banks, the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses. Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody?s Economy.com...Reuters - No housing bottom until 2010: CP MorganCNN Money - Foreclosure prevention plan under attackMarketWatch - 'Headwinds' blow Fannie and Freddie off courseMSN Money - Real-estate agents bail out Dan Norcini - The US Equity Markets At Work?CNBC - Is Time Running Out for Bond Insurers?Reuters - Dollar Falls Broadly, Stocks RecoverWashington Pos...
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ARM Mortgage Holders Defaulting Even Before Rate Resets
2008-02-21 00:52:00
Subprime loans defaulting even before resets by CNN Money - snip:For months, we've fretted about the Armageddon that will hit when subprime adjustable rate mortgages start resetting to much higher interest rates. What's happening is even worse: Many of these loans are defaulting well before their rates increase. Defaults for subprime loans issued in 2007 - none of which have reset yet - hit 11.2 percent in November. That represents perhaps 300,000 households, and is twice the default rate that 2006 loans had 10 months after being issued, according to Friedman, Billings Ramsey analyst Michael Youngblood. Defaults are spiking well before resets come into play thanks to the lax lending environment of the past few years. Many borrowers were approved for mortgages that they had little chance of affording, even at the low-interest teaser rates...Housing Cycle Is Caught in Vicious Circle by WSJ - snip:Economists have a term to describe what it means when things keep going from bad to wor...
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How Many Millions Will Walk Away From Their Homes?
2008-02-20 00:49:00
The Forthcoming ?Jingle Mail? Tsunami: 10-15 Million Households to Walk Away from Homes /Mortgages Leading to a Systemic Banking Crisis by Nouriel Roubini - snip:The current housing recession, subprime meltdown and severe credit crunch in financial markets has many worrisome aspects. And while there is always a ?crisis de jeur? - one day SIVs, the next day monolines, the next day TOBs or auction-rate securities - one needs to keep some perspective and consider which risks are first-order sources of stress for financial markets and which ones are of second or third-order concern. I will argue that the most important first-order risk for financial markets derives from the likelihood that 10 million to 15 million households may walk away from their homes if ? as likely - home prices fall another 10% in 2008 and further in 2009. When ? in the summer of 2006 ? this author argued that this would be the worst housing US recession in the last 50 years and that home prices would fall ? from t...
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A Crisis Everywhere You Turn
2008-02-18 23:18:00
Washington Post - Bernanke in 2005: There's No Housing Bubble to Go BustNY Daily News - Foreclosures in Jamaica now home to squattersNYT - Jitters for First-Time NY Homebuyers NYT - The Short Sale Gains in Allure on Long IslandWasington Post - From Foreclosure Signs to Auto Repo LotsWashington Post - Wall Street Faces Fury Over SubprimesNewsWeek - America the Over-StoredAtlanta Business Journal - Georgia loan problems worst in SoutheastProject Syndicate - Is Europe?s Housing Market Next?------FXstreet - US: Manufacturing activity collapsesCrooked Timber - Here comes the big oneNaked Catpitalism - Credit Default Swap Worries Go MainstreamNYT - CDS Market Is Next to Face Big Credit TestEVRO Intelligence - The Credit Default Swap ("CDS") Market ? Will It Unravel?------Times UK - Don?t cave in to bankers who plead for moreEconomist Magazine - The credit crunch isn't going anywhereBusinessWeek - Hard times heighten long-felt uneaseNew Yorker Magazine - The Stimulus StrategyEVRO Intelli...
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Leading Banks Advised To 'Walk Away' From Big Buy-Out Deals
2008-02-16 00:50:00
Bleak economic reports signal recession by Reuters - snip:A series of bleak economic reports on Friday showed the mood of American consumers deteriorating in February to a point that has always signaled recession, while factory activity in New York state suffered its biggest drop on record. Compounding worries about a downturn, data suggested bubbling price pressures, raising the possibility of a troublesome scenario of simultaneously slowing growth and rising inflation -- "stagflation." "This is just horrible. The sustained volatility in the markets, the rise in energy and food prices and, of course, the catastrophe in the housing market is making consumers extraordinarily miserable," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York...Big deals under threat over bank losses by Financial Times - snip:Leading banks are being advised that it would be cheaper to walk away from big buy-out deals than incur further losses on their funding commi...
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U.S. Home Price Declines Hit Record In 4Q07
2008-02-15 01:58:00
Home Price s Fall in Record 77 U.S. Metro Areas by Bloomberg - snips:Home prices fell in a record number of U.S. metropolitan areas in 4Q07, according to a report released today by the National Association of Realtors in Chicago. The median sale price of a U.S. home dropped 5.8% to $206,200 in the last three months of 2007 from $219,000 in the same period of 2006, the realtors group said today. Prices fell in 77 of 150 metropolitan areas, the most since the group began tracking values in 1979. The decline was 10% or more in 16 metro areas, the association said. Prospective homeowners had a tougher time getting mortgages in 2007 as lenders tightened standards amid rising foreclosures, and made 14% fewer loans and 28% fewer jumbo loans, which cover up to $417,000 of a home's value. Prices have fallen more than 10% since their July 2006 peak in the worst U.S. housing slump in 26 years. "The continuing crunch in the jumbo loan market that began in August has disproportionately reduce...
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Daughter Of Toll Brothers' Founder Skips Out On $2.47mln Condo Contract
2008-02-14 01:50:00
Reuters - Daughter of Toll Brothers ' founder Bruce Toll skips out on $2.47mln condo contractBloomberg - Americans Selling Homes Find Prices So Low Mortgage Exceeds Current ValuesNY Real Deal - Corcoran prepares to open new Williamsburg office Curbed - McCarren Park Pool Plans: Where Will Concerts Go?Bloomberg - Fed Interest-Rate Cuts Fail to Lower Borrowing Costs Calculated Risk - Is BofA Willing to Write Down Loans 30%?------Reuters - Depression risk might force U.S. to buy assetsFinancial Times - Full impact of squeeze ?yet to be felt?Wall Street Examiner - More Ponzi Finance Dilemmas------Bloomberg - Auction-Bond Failures Roil Munis, Pushing Rates UpForbes - Multiple muni issuers see notes fail at auctionBloomberg - Buffett Plan Saves Muni Market, Dooms Ambac, MBIAReuters - European shares fall as Buffett effect peters outBloomberg - U.S. States' Credit Rating Outlook Turns NegativeNYT - The credit crunch hits studentsUSA Today - Car loans stretched to 7 years or longer  &...
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Third Of Recent Buyers Owe More Than House Is Worth
2008-02-12 23:55:00
Reuters - 1/3 of recent buyers owe more than home's valueNYT - Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans NY Newsday - Home prices on Long Island at 3yr lowNY Newsday - Subprime crisis spurs post-Depression fearsNY Observer - Macklowe Receives Default Notice, Debt Negotiations StallWSJ - Homes in Bubble Regions Remain Wildly OvervaluedCBS - 6 Lenders Up Efforts To Aid Mortgage MessNaked Capitalism - New Treasury Mortgage Borrower Salvage Program, Smoke and MirrorsCBC - 2.2 million foreclosure filings in 2007------Jim Sinclair - What The Spin Would Have You BelieveWSJ - New Hitches In Markets May Widen Credit WoesNYT - New Stimulus Package A Big DisappointmentTimes UK - The vicious circle that trapped AmericaMarketWatch - Vote on world's next megabubbleAsia Times - Credit Crunch Bulletin: At the heart of disorderTaipei Times - Ending the debt delusionTelegraph UK - Stagflation dragon stirs as factory prices soar------CNN Money - Russian bomber buzzes U.S. aircraft carrierAP - Isra...
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In The News Today
2008-02-12 04:10:00
Seems I've come down with a touch of the flu. Minimal posting for a few days.USA is at Epidemic levels... http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htmNY Real Deal - Manhattan cools off ... and more NYT - A League of Their Own - Manhattan Luxury CondosNY Magazine - Brooklyn?s Great Prospect?Slive - NY Savvy home buyers may have the upper handCNN Money - What slump? Homeowners in denial Washington Post - Don't Blame SubprimesSudden Debt - Commercial RE Lending Risk SoaringCalculated Risk - Inventory, Inventory, Inventory - Builders Still BuildingBusinessWeek - Consumers: Over The LimitBlown Mortgage - McCain?s Mum on Mortgage Reform------New Yorker Magazine - How ?Bout Them EconomyNY News day - Fears of recession for Long IslandForbes - Look Out Below, Long, Deep RecessionMarketOracle - Great Depression of '08 - It can't happen to us....can it? Northern Trust - Recession Now ? Putting Our Forecast Where Our Mouth Has BeenNYT - Postmodern recessionsAP - Many believe US already in a rece...
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The Hamptons' On Long Island Walking Off A Foreclosure Cliff
2008-02-09 01:30:00
Hard Times in Hamptons? Land of Plentyby East Hampton Star - snips:Although it may not be apparent amid the giddy headlines of record-breaking rentals and multimillion-dollar sales, a parallel foreclosure crisis on the South Fork might be more imminent than previously thought. With banks waiting longer to take action on their delinquencies, some longstanding problems may just be emerging. ?People are calling me who are not only behind two or three months but a whole year or year and a half,? Ann Nowak, a Water Mill lawyer with a specialty practice in bankruptcy, said on Monday. ?Foreclosure s are not happening as quickly... It appears the banks don?t want the houses back, maybe because they don?t want to have to unload them.? Ms. Nowak offers free consultations to those who might be facing bankruptcy and foreclosure. She said on Monday that the number of calls she has been receiving is climbing. ?I can?t quantify it for you, but we?re getting a lot more calls over the past few mont...
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EUROs Accepted At NYC Retail Establishments
2008-02-08 01:04:00
"Euros Accepted" signs pop up in New York City - by Reuters - snip:In the latest example that the U.S. dollar just ain't what it used to be, some shops in New York City have begun accepting euros and other foreign currency as payment for merchandise. "We had decided that money is money and we'll take it and just do the exchange whenever we can with our bank," Robert Chu, owner of East Village Wines, told Reuters television. The increasingly weak U.S. dollar, once considered the king among currencies, has brought waves of European tourists to New York with money to burn...Bloomberg Video: Credit Markets, Slow Moving Train Wreck--> "People involved equities don't really understand how badly broken the financial intermediation system is. You take enron/worldcom, you take the internet bubble, you take LTCM, you take the junk bond crisis, you take the S&L crisis you take the housing crisis of 1990, roll them all into one, and that's what we're looking at." Subprime is a problem,...
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NYC Foreclosures Continue To Soar
2008-02-07 01:39:00
FORECLOSE FLURRY HITS BIG APPLE by NY Post - snip:January was a cold, cruel month for home foreclosures in New York City. All five boroughs are posting the sharpest overall one-month rise in the past two years. Staten Island was the hardest hit, with foreclosure auctions up 184% over December, while Queens soared by 150%, according to PropertyShark.com. Manhattan followed with an 80% hike, and Brooklyn came in fourth with 46%. Only The Bronx seemed to weather the rising foreclosure-auction rate with a modest 14% upswing. Last month's 135 foreclosures in Queens, compared to 54 the previous month, is "troubling," said PropertyShark's Ashleigh Rose Clark.... "More alarming increases came from Staten Island, where [the yearly foreclosure rate] was up 260 percent," Clark said. Manhattan's yearly rate held steady...The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdownby Nouriel Roubini - snips:The Twelve Steps to Financial Disaster. Why did the Fed ease the Fed Funds rate by a whopping 12...
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Economic Worries Whack Wall Street
2008-02-06 01:30:00
Bond Unbound by New Yorker Magazine - snip:If the ongoing turmoil in the world?s financial markets has made anything clear, it?s that the list of things that can go wrong in those markets is a very long one. Month after month, it seems, another potentially disastrous problem rises to the surface. The latest looming crisis is the possible implosion of a group of companies called monoline insurers. If you haven?t heard of monoline insurers, don?t worry: until recently, few people, even on Wall Street , were all that interested in them. Yet their problems have become a serious threat to global markets. Rumors that monoline insurers, like M.B.I.A. and Ambac, were in serious trouble helped spark the vast market sell-off that prompted the Federal Reserve?s interest-rate cut two weeks ago...CDO Market Is Almost Frozen, Merrill, JPMorgan Sayby Bloomberg - snip:Buying and selling of collateralized debt obligations based on mortgage bonds, high-yield loans or preferred shares has ground to a n...
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The NYC Real Estate Market Has, In Fact Turned South
2008-02-05 02:02:00
Home Prices Start to Dip, Recalling ?90s Slumpby NYT - snips:For homeowners in the metropolitan area, all of the talk in the past year about a real estate collapse may have sounded as foreign as a Bollywood musical. After all, the value of the typical home in the area has more than doubled in this decade. And at the region?s core, the prices of apartments in Manhattan have floated upward on seemingly unquenchable demand. But lately, more cracks in the housing market have begun to show, and the trend is reminding some analysts of the severe downturn in the region during the recession that followed the boom years of the late 1980s. Even in Manhattan, signs of weakness have appeared beneath the headlines about ever-rising average sale prices of condominiums and co-ops. A report last week found that rents in Manhattan declined in January, by more than 7 percent in some neighborhoods, according to the Real Estate Group New York. The latest set of numbers ?reinforces our sentiment that ...
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Robert Shiller: Historic Housing Correction, Severe Recession On Tap
2008-02-03 03:12:00
Robert Shiller on Bloomberg - 1/29/07http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-o n2j12c84 New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture
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Brace Yourself - 25%+ Decline In Home Prices Over Next Couple Years
2008-02-02 01:18:00
Housing Meltdown by BusinessWeek - Feb 11, 2008 Issue snips:As Washington policymakers struggle to keep the U.S. out of recession, the swirling confusion over the housing market is making their job a lot tougher...Some experts have begun to suggest that a bottom is in sight. Pali Research analyst Stephen East wrote in a research note to his firm's clients on Jan. 25 that "the sun is not shining very brightly, but at least the worst of the storm has likely passed"... But it's considerably more likely that the storm is still gathering force. On Jan. 30 the government said annual economic growth slowed to just 0.6% in the fourth quarter as home construction plunged at a 24% annual rate. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index fell 7.7% in November from the year before, the biggest decline since the index was created in 2000. And that could be just the start. Brace yourself: Home prices could sink an additional 25% over the next two or three years, returning...
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