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New York City Housing Bubble - 'The BIG Picture'New York City Housing Bubble - 'The BIG Picture'A North Williamsburg Brooklyn Bubble? Fuggetaboutit! Here you'll find NYC info, but first and foremost The BIG Picture on macro-economic, financial, and geopolitical issues that will affect the market in the immediate future. 
Articles
Long Island Closing Prices Plunge 10%, Queens 15% Year Over Year
2008-06-10 00:13:00 LI May home prices fall 10% over '07; Queens down 15%by NY Newsday - fullLast month's median closing prices of homes on Long Island dropped by about 10 percent -- 15 percent in Queens -- compared to a year ago. And when compared to April, the figures reveal an erratic housing market some real estate agents say is still correcting from the boom years and feeling the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis.The Multiple Listing Service of Long Island , which also includes Queens, reported that the median closing price was $360,000 in Suffolk, down from $400,000 a year ago. In Nassau the median price dropped $51,500 to $438,500 over the same period, and in Queens the price dropped to $407,500 from $480,000.The declines show the effects of fewer sales coupled with increased inventory, according to MLS chief executive Joseph E. Mottola."Market uncertainty continues as homeowners under increasing pressures of gas prices, tax increases and the upward adjustments in variable rate mortgages t... More About: Year
Could 50% of All Homes End Up in Foreclosure?
2008-06-06 00:29:00 Hi everyone. Here is a provocative topic which sounds farfetched but which has historical precedent: in the Great Depression, about half of all urban homes were in default/foreclosure. Could that happen again? As crazy as it sounds, I would say "yes" based on this report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The "missing ingredient" is job losses/income contraction. Here is an excerpt; if you want to read the entire entry, go to www.oftwominds.com/blog.htmlCharles Smith, your Left Coast correspondentJust how bad could the housing bust get? How about half of all urban homes being in foreclosure? As stunning or unbelievable as that may sound, it already happened once in the U.S., in the Great Depression, as documented in this report: Lessons from the Great Depression (St. Louis Federal Reserve).Though history doesn't repeat, it certainly echoes, and the parallels between the present and 1934 are particularly sobering. The only "missing ingredient" to a full-blown depression is job loss... More About: Foreclosure , Homes
1Q08 US Foreclosures & Late Payments Highest Since 1979
2008-06-06 00:27:00 Home foreclosures set record in first quarter by AP - snip:Home foreclosures and late payments set records over the first three months of the year and are expected to keep rising, stark signs of the housing crisis' mounting damage to homeowners and the economy.The latest snapshot of the mortgage market, released Thursday, showed that the proportion of mortgages that fell into foreclosure soared to 0.99 percent in the January-through-March period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007.The report by the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments.The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent in the first quarter, compared with 5.82 percent for the three months earlier. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.Both the rate of new foreclosures and late payments were the highest on record going back to 1979.Jay Brinkmann, the association's vice president... More About: Foreclosures , Late
Remain Passive And Get Milked
2008-05-30 23:38:00 New Overdue Home Loans Swamp Effort to Fix Defaultsby Bloomberg - snip:Newly delinquent mortgage borrowers outnumbered people who caught up on their overdue payments by two to one last month, a sign that nationwide efforts to help homeowners avoid default may be failing. In April, 73,880 homeowners with privately insured mortgages fell more than 60 days late on payments, compared with 39,584 who got back on track... Foreclosure filings surged 65 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in April compared with a year earlier as rates on adjustable mortgages increased, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Lawmakers and Federal Reserve officials are trying to ease the worst U.S. housing slump since the Great Depression through tax rebates, expanded federal mortgage insurance and other programs. "It's going to take a while before you see the impact of the government's plans, if you can even see a discernable one,"... One in every 519 U.S. households is in some stage of the foreclosure pr... More About: Passive
Homes Sales & Prices Plunge - Deep Recession On Tap
2008-05-25 17:27:00 Buffett sees "long, deep" U.S. recession by Reuters - snip:The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday. He said the United States was "already in recession" and added: "Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it" with two consecutive quarters of negative growth. "But the people are already feeling the effects," said Buffett, the world's richest man. "It will be deeper and last longer than many think"...Unsold houses rise to 23-year high in April by MarketWatch - snips:Sales decline 1% even as prices plunge 8% year-on-yearThe U.S. housing market weakened further in April with a flood of homes coming on the market even as sales and prices declined, the National Association of Realtors reported Friday. Resales of U.S. houses and condos dropped 1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million fro... More About: Homes , Deep , Recession , Prices
Housing's False Bottom
2008-05-23 23:02:00 Greetings, readers! At the gracious invitation of the New York City Housing Bubble, I've been invited to be occasional guest poster. Many of you may already have seen this piece on my website OfTwoMinds.com or via patrick.net, but I post it here in the hopes of starting a thread about NYC neighborhoods which, like this one I describe in the SF area, are still in high demand. Is your 'hood seeing a surge of buying as "bottom fishers" decide to jump in? Please let us know what's happening in your area.I have long supported this blog with cross-links to my site and I hope to contribute to its maintenance.best regards,charles smithwww.oftwominds.comThere's been a sort of ghoulish fascination in watching house values ebb from bubblicious heights. But now that sales are rising sharply, (S.F. Bay Area Home sales see first monthly gain in 6 months) the bottom must be in, right? Whew. Those two years of decline after 10 years of rising values were brutual.Cartoonist Bill Griffith capt... More About: Bottom
Guest NYCbubble Blogger
2008-05-23 01:37:00 All, within the next day or two, the NYCbubble will have a guest blogger posting. His work in the blogsphere on finance, real estate and other topics is exceptional.Please give him a warm welcome on his first post! New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: Blogger , Guest
Brooklyn Feeling The Inventory Pinch
2008-05-21 01:24:00 Brooklyn?s Growth Spurt Tapers Off by GlobeSt NY - snips:The rapid growth seen in Brooklyn?s residential market over the past few years has tapered off thus far in 2008, according to a Q1 apartment research report by Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services. One result of the slowdown has been a reduction in the number of apartment buildings changing hands. ?There?s certainly been a softening in transaction velocity in the first quarter,? J.D. Parker, regional manager of Marcus & Millichap?s Brooklyn office, tells Real Estate New York. ?We saw this toward the end of last year as well, but it has continued to decline. I?m seeing somewhere between a 50% and 65% decline in transaction velocity in apartment building sales in Brooklyn"...?Some of the projects that are in strong locations will probably have to adjust their prices downward a little to move units off their shelves,? says Parker. ?But I think most of the savvier builders have had a contingency plan in place... More About: Inventory , Brooklyn , Feeling
Possible Guest Bloggers
2008-05-18 16:09:00 Dear All, Once again, thank you for all the kind words and support provided in the post comments from May 8th while I navigate a difficult situation in personal affairs. I've had a few offers from readers and financial bloggers to post on the NYCbubble while I attend to matters. I will keep you all posted on this development and introduce any potential guest blogger when agreed. Please utilize my extensive Blogroll of great links on the left navigation bar (as a guide, note the sites with an *asterisk and those I've referenced on previous posts). New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: Bloggers , Guest
Paul Volcker: "New Financial System Is Broken Down"
2008-05-18 15:40:00 Paul Volcker is the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve from August 1979 to August 1987. Here is his testimony to Congress from this past week commenting on the current financial crisis.Image Courtesy of Jim Sinclair's Mineset New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: System , Financial , Paul , Broken
Foreclosures Surge In Long Island's Hamptons Paradise
2008-05-13 01:13:00 TROUBLE IN LI PARADISE by NY POST - snip:In the first three months of this year, banks have launched preliminary foreclosure actions - known as lis pendens proceedings - against a record 120 borrowers in East Hampton and Southampton towns... "This problem didn't even exist before," said John Brady, a broker with Coldwell Banker in East Hampton. "They used to pop up once in a while, and you wouldn't even pay attention. Now you expect to see new ones every week".. New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: Foreclosures , Paradise , Long , Surge , Hamptons
The Last Post - REVISED
2008-05-10 00:26:00 Due to personal matters, as well as the lack of interest and participation by new york city metro residents, after a year and a half of steady dedication in providing this resource on a volunteer basis, unfortunately for the loyal readers, this blog has found its last day. I can no longer dedicate the time and effort necessary. I hope that you've all gained good knowledge and developed your own home prospecting strategy for the turbulent economic times ahead for us all. Best of luck and happy lowballing. ------First... to Everyone who has sent me emails and posted on this comment. THANK YOU! Its overwhelming to have gotten so many kind words. Although, I still have matters to attend to. I will try to post from time to time on important issues that arise. Secondly... perhaps someone out there can assist with posting on the NYCbubble and keep it alive? I'm sure readers will take you in and appreciate greatly. Send me an email... address is in my profile. New York Cit... More About: Post
Charge It!
2008-05-08 00:52:00 US Consumer Debt Increases $15.3 Billion, More Than Forecast by Bloomberg - snip:U.S. consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, indicating a slowing economy is forcing Americans to accumulate credit-card and other forms of debt... "Consumers are strapped as incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression,'' said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. "The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone"...Bankruptcies on the Rise by BusinessWeek - snips:The numbers show a 49% increase in commercial bankruptcies over last year, with an average of 235 daily filings last month compared to 158 in April, 2007, according to data compiled by Jupiter eSources, an Oklahoma City company that runs a database called Automated Access to Court Electroni... More About: Charge
David Lereah Visits The Housing Bust Confessional
2008-05-08 00:50:00 It?s Going to Get Worse Newsweek Web Exclusive - snips:Economist David Lereah (of the NAR) was once the housing market's biggest cheerleader. Now he says the bust isn't near over, and home prices still have a long way to fall... "We're not at the bottom," he says. "[People] want it to be near the bottom, but we're not there yet. The leading indicators are still very bad. Pending home sales are still in bad shape. Mortgage applications are low ? There's still supply out there in abundance ? This thing is going to get worse before it gets better." Lereah says that the industry may begin to see a slight uptick in sales later this summer, which could signal the start of the recovery. Home prices, however, will continue to fall... That's quite a turnabout from the view he articulated in his book, first published in 2005... "You knew there were a couple of [regional] balloons out there, and [I] said you could have a couple of these balloons pop," Lereah says now. "But I didn't thin... More About: Housing , Bust , Confessional
Brain Dead Couch Potatos Awash In Voluntary Debt
2008-05-07 00:43:00 America, The Ignorant by Boom2Bust - snip:Back on February 19, 2008, I wrote a post that talked about how Americans are in serious intellectual trouble. One finding by the National Science Foundation that I noted in that discussion and which really disturbed me was that one in five American adults think the sun revolves around the Earth. Now I know why we love ?reality? shows so much. Well, it?s time to revisit the topics of intellectualism and knowledge among Americans. On April 22, op-ed columnist Bob Herbert of the New York Times talked about a recent survey of teenagers by the education advocacy group Common Core, which found:? One-quarter of teenagers could not identify Adolf Hitler? One-third did not know that the Bill of Rights guaranteed freedom of speech and religion? Fewer than half knew that the Civil War took place between 1850 and 1900? One-fifth did not know who the United States fought during World War II? Eleven percent thought Dwight Eisenhower was the president for... More About: Debt , Dead , Voluntary , Brain , Couch
NYC Foreclosure Rates Soar 34%, And Manhattan Not Immune
2008-05-01 01:23:00 METRO FORECLOSE RATE SOARS 34% by NY Post - snips:The number of New Yorkers losing their homes to foreclosure jumped by a third compared with a year ago, a study has found - and experts are warning that the worst is yet to come... Analysts once predicted that New York's real-estate market would be largely insulated from the wave of home-loan defaults affecting much of the country. But lawmakers and local organizations are now working overtime to keep up with the volume of requests for help from homeowners in crisis. New York's foreclosure process is unusually long, taking more than a year for defaulting homeowners to lose their homes, so experts say the data probably does not reflect the level of foreclosures that will hit the area. "We are still waiting for the other shoe to drop," said RealtyTrac spokesman Daren Blomquist about the foreclosure rate in the city... In Brooklyn, one in every 241 homeowners is now in the foreclosure process. That is more than double the number of... More About: Foreclosure , Manhattan , Rates , Soar
Home Prices Plunge Again, Deliquencies & Foreclosures Accelerate
2008-05-01 01:15:00 Home Prices in U.S. Fall 12.7%, Most Since 2001 by Bloomberg - snips:Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in February by the most on record, pointing to an imbalance between supply and demand that shows no sign of ending. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 12.7% from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007... "This is just one more strain for consumers, in addition to high energy prices and tight credit," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, which forecast a price decline of 12.4%. "Prices are going to continue to fall, probably through the end of next year"... The group's 10-city composite index, with a history back to 1987, fell 13.6% in the 12 months ended in February, also the most ever...Foreclosures jump for seventh straight quarter by Reuters - snip:Home foreclosure filings jumped 23% in the first qua... More About: Home , Accelerate
Record Vacant Homes, Most Since 1956
2008-04-30 00:58:00 Nobody's home: Percentage of vacant houses sets record high in first quarter of 2008 by AP - snip:The percentage of vacant homes for sale in the U.S. set a new record high in the first quarter of this year, the government said Monday. The Census Bureau report shows that shows that 2.9 percent of U.S. homes -- excluding rental properties -- were vacant and up for sale, compared with 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. It was the highest quarterly number in records going back to 1956. That works out to 2.28 million properties, up from 2.18 million in the same quarter last year, according to the report...Warren Buffett says recession may be worse than feared by Reuters - snip:Warren Buffett, the world's richest person, said on Monday the U.S. economy is in a recession that will be more severe than most people expect...Global adjustment will be long and painful by FT - snip:So this crisis is about to end, right? There are two failsafe ways to justify a solid dose of optimism: ... More About: Homes , Vacant , Record
Foreclosures Spread To The Affluent
2008-04-26 01:08:00 Recession Spread ing from Housing to Starbucks, Eye Surgeries and Restaurant Meals by Nouriel Roubini - snips:While the housing figures are getting worse and worse (literally plunging new home sales, falling existing home sales, falling housing starts and permits) the effects of this housing recession and the ensuing financial crisis on the real economy are now in full swing. Three headlines this morning were indicative of how the housing recession has now spread to an economy-wide recession? The Financial Times had a front page story titled that started as follows: Slowdown Filters to Starbucks... Next, the Wall Street Journal had a front page article titled Restaurants Feel Sting of Surging Costs, Debt... Next, the front page of the New York Times business section had an article titled As the Economy Slows, So Do Laser Eye Surgeries... all three stories as well as dozen other ones that appear daily... suggest that what started as a housing recession has now spread to the rest o... More About: Foreclosures
New Home Sales Plunge To Lowest In 17yrs
2008-04-26 00:51:00 New-Home Sales in U.S. Plunge More Than Forecast, the Lowest in 17yrs by Bloomberg - snip:Purchases of new homes in the U.S. plunged more than forecast in March to the lowest level in almost 17 years as stricter loan rules and falling prices caused buyers to hold off. Sales dropped 8.5 percent to an annual pace of 526,000, the fewest since October 1991, from a 575,000 rate the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price slumped 13.3 percent from the same time last year, the most in almost four decades. A jump in subprime mortgage defaults and record foreclosures have worsened the real-estate slump and led banks to limit lending. The threat of a prolonged recession is growing as lower home values constrain consumer spending and persistent declines in homebuilding subtract from economic growth. "The drag from housing is not going to abate any time soon," Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before th... More About: New Home Sales
Lenders Swamped by Delinquent Mortgages
2008-04-24 01:54:00 Lenders Swamped by Delinquent Mortgages by Washington Post - snip:Seven out of 10 troubled mortgage borrowers remain without a plan to work out their loans despite increased industry efforts to help them, according to a new report from a coalition of state attorneys general and banking regulators. The group collected data from 13 of the largest subprime lenders from October through January and found that the lenders are overwhelmed by their workloads and unable to keep pace with the number of borrowers who are falling behind on payments...Ambac gets crushed, another bank wobbles by Financial Ninja - snips:Remember those monoline insurers that used to move the market by a couple hundred points in either direction? The ones that everybody seems to have forgotten about? Well, Ambac (ABK) just reported earnings.. Ambac's $1.66 Billion Loss Wider Than Estimated on Subprime; Shares Plunge ...Ambac Financial Group Inc., having staved off a credit-rating downgrade, posted a wider loss tha... More About: Lenders
Existing Home Sales Continue To Plummet
2008-04-23 01:22:00 Existing-Home Sales Decline by WSJ - snips:Existing-home sales fell during March after making a surprising climb in February. Home resales fell to a 4.93 million annual rate, a 2.0% decrease from February's unrevised 5.03 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Resales fell 19% from March 2007's 6.11 million rate. The median home price was $200,700 in March, down 7.7% from $217,400 in March 2007. The median price in February this year was $195,600. Falling prices have kept would-be buyers from signing off on property as they wait for still-lower price tags... Sales fell 6.5% in the Midwest, rose 2.2% in the Northeast, rose 2.2% in the West, and fell 3.5% in the South...The Market Economist by David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch - (Chart at Right) snip:...We expect both new and existing home sales to show declines next week, in a sign that the housing market is far from bottoming. Existing home sales are expected to post a modest 0.6% decline, while n...
As If Housing Meltdown Wasn't Enough, Food Rationing In New York
2008-04-23 01:00:00 Rice, flour, & cooking oil purchase restrictions on East & West coasts by NY Sun - snip:Many parts of America, long considered the breadbasket of the world, are now confronting a once unthinkable phenomenon: food rationing. Major retailers in New York , in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks... "It's sporadic. It's not every store, but it's becoming more commonplace," the editor of SurvivalBlog.com, James Rawles, said. "The number of reports I've been getting from readers who have seen signs posted with limits has increased almost exponentially, I'd say in the last three to five weeks"...Credit getting even tighter for condo buyers by Chicago Tribune - snip:If you own or plan to buy a condo, a new phase of the mortgage credit squeeze could be looming. Because of underwriting changes by giant investors Fa... More About: Food , Housing , New-York
The Road To Financial Disaster With Nouriel Roubini
2008-04-19 21:33:00 Part 1The Road To Financial Disaster , Assessing The DamageCanadian TV - The Agenda w/Steven PankinInterview w/Nouriel RoubiniPart 2Part 3 New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: The Road
The Other Shoe Yet To Drop - Alt-A Time Bomb
2008-04-18 13:12:00 Housing Starts Still Collapsing!by Chuck Butler of Everbank - snips:Yesterday, we saw U.S. Housing Starts continue to collapse when the March reports printed... Both Housing Starts and Building Permits showed a 59% fall from the high two years ago... Let me put this in perspective... In previous crashes, the decline from peak to trough has been 40-60%, so we are on the verge of breaking all records for a down-move. Nice to know that the men put in place to protect the economy thought this meltdown had "bottomed" last August, eh? ...After the report, Reuters reported that Fed Head Mishkin was overheard saying that "THERE IS ROOM TO LOWER THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE IF NEEDED"... This what I've been talking about, folks... The U.S. rates are going lower, and you can take that to the bank! OK, well... Maybe the legal beagles won't like me saying that, so, let's just say, I think that you should think that U.S. rates are going lower...by Goldman Sachs - snip:...Our message has been cle... More About: Time , Bomb , Shoe , Time Bomb , Drop
Another Shoe Is About To Drop - PRIME Mortgage 'Walkaways'
2008-04-17 00:49:00 REUTERS - US TREASURY'S MCCORMICK-SWEEPING REGULATION, BIG INJECTIONS OF PUBLIC MONEY WON'T CALM MARKETSHere Comes the Next Mortgage Crisis by Slate - snip:Subprime was just the beginning. Wait until California's prime borrowers start handing their keys to the bank... California is to mortgage lending what Chicago is to pork bellies. For years, that meant it was a place with soaring house values; today, the foreclosure rate across the state is twice the national average and going up fast. Riverside County, outside Los Angeles, may be the foreclosure capital of the country, with a rate close to six times the national average. And housing prices are in freefall. California should be the poster child for a mortgage-loan bailout. In few other places have so many taken on such onerous debts with so little equity. Unfortunately, the crisis in California is going to get much worse, and there is no bailout that will solve it. Why? Because if the first stage of the foreclosure crisis was... More About: Shoe , Prime , Drop
U.S. Foreclosures Surge 57% - Bank Reposessions Double
2008-04-16 01:11:00 US Foreclosures Jump 57% as Homeowners Walk Awayby Bloomberg - snips:US foreclosure filings jumped 57% and bank repossessions more than doubled in March from a year earlier as adjustable mortgages increased and more owners gave up their homes to lenders... one in every 538 U.S. households, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, said today in a statement. Nevada, California and Florida had the highest foreclosure rates... About $460 billion of adjustable-rate loans are scheduled to reset this year, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc. Auction notices rose 32% from a year ago, a sign that more defaulting homeowners are "simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender'' rather than letting the home be auctioned, RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer James Saccacio said. "We're not near the bottom of this at all,'' said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of Rosen Real Estate Securities LLC, a hedge fund in Berkeley... More About: Double , Surge , Bank
Staten Island's Foreclosure Row
2008-04-15 00:39:00 FORECLOSURE ST. ON STATEN ISLANDby NY Post - snip:Welcome to New York City's foreclosure capital - tree-lined Blackford Avenue on Staten Island. On two tiny blocks in the Port Richmond neighborhood, eight houses are in foreclosure and five other families have received formal notices from banks informing them they are in danger of the same. In the first quarter of 2008, 174 foreclosures were filed on Staten Island - the highest per-capita rate of any borough, up from 34 foreclosures in the same period last year, according to data compiled by PropertyShark.com, a real-estate search Web site. As the city finds itself in the maw of the national housing crisis, these buyers - many lured by subprime and other adjustable-rate loans to buy houses out of their price range - are now losing their homes...AP poll: Mortgage payments worry manyby Associated Press - snip:One in seven mortgage holders worry they may soon fail to make their monthly payments and even more fret that their home's v... More About: Foreclosure
A 'Long & Deep Recession' - Worse Since Great Depression
More articles from this author:2008-04-13 05:34:00 CNBC 4/12 SquawkboxProfessor Stiglitz, Nobel Prize Winning Economist-Subprime problem just beginning, 2mil more foreclosures to come-30%+ House price drop as a national average-Real Estate brokers and industry experts too optimistic-Zero consumer savings rate-Banks don't know what is on there balance sheets-States and localities tax revenues are dropping-Very little the Fed can do, Bernanke is struggling-US Financial system badly damaged-The current stimulus package is couterproductive New York City Housing Bubble - The BIG Picture More About: Depression , Great , Deep , Long , Recession 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 |
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