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Fundamental analysis for CEE emerging markets.
2008-06-03 15:52:00 Yesterday I posted about new ETF iShares MSCI Eastern Europe (IEER.L). Let's have a look to key fundamental indicators of countries included in the fund. Russian index RTX, Polish WIG, Hungarian BUX and Czech PX. Country/Region DivYld P/B P/CF FY0 P/E 12M Trailing P/E FY1 P/E Russia 0.98 2.24 13.91 13.22 10.35 11.6 Poland 2.78 2.25 9.14 12.73 12.39 11.94 Hungary 2.6 2.37 6.4 10.23 9.83 9.36 Czech Republic 2.96 2.82 8.52 15.49 18.39 13.62 Central European countries provide high dividends. On average dividend yield in Emerging countries is 1.91. Also P/E ratios are better than average. Lower P/E valuation for Hungary is mainly influenced by low GDP growth which is already one year below 1%. Hungarian economic outlook is the worst in region. See below how these emerging markets stand vs global fundamental picture. ...
Fundamental Analysis Dilemma
2008-05-31 09:45:00 Experience traders usually rely heavily on the fundamental analysis more than technical in their daily trading. This is because they have already study for so many years about the behavior of market movement affected by each of the economic data. Despite of their overall success there are certain times they still at least incur some losses. And their only solution to cut that losses is by putting
By: Forex Beginner
Markets Update 29 May
2008-05-29 16:22:00 After weak Australian Capex, weak German employment data, and an upwardly revised US Q1 GDP, the greenback is stronger against most major currencies with the exception of the Canadian dollar. The US dollar index is up .30 at 72.84. With UBS CEO saying the worst of the subprime crisis is over for banks, credit market spreads have tightened with the European iTRAXX Series 9 5 year crossover is down 6 ...
Nouriel Roubini in Video Interview with the Financial Times
2008-05-29 15:24:00 He discuss the outlook for the US economy, housing and mortgages; the prospects for policy action (the Frank-Dodd bill to provide debt relief to distressed mortgage borrowers) and for Fed policy; and the outlook for financial markets. Part 1 Part 2 Part 3
Market update 27th May
2008-05-27 17:48:00 Prior to the S&P CS US home price index, the greenback is mixed but still under pressure from the downgrading of the US economy from the Federal Reserve that occurred last week. The US dollar index is up .08 at 72.07. ?With continued concern over UBS rights issuance, credit market spreads have moved out with the European iTRAXX Series 9 5 ...
Reading recomendations for fundamental analysis?
2008-05-22 16:07:00 While I somewhat agree with the efficient market hypothesis at least with the part that past pattens cannot be used to predict future performance I believe at least in theory that its possible for the market to make errors in valuing securities. I think that technical analysis is a bunch of garbage but I do think that with dilligent hard-work it may be possible to find and capitolize on opportunities where the market may have under or over valued a security. Based on my assumptions about how the market works are there any books no best-sellers or ten secrets to beating the market type stuff that you would recommend? Is fundamental analysis the processtheoryphilosophy that most accurately represents my beliefsassumptions about investing or am I misinterpreting the definition of fundamental analysis? Thanks in advance to anyone willing to help out someone whos intersted in starting to learn how to invest. I should mention that I do have a solid understanding of the elementary con...
By: nobosh Answers
Forex Fundamental Analysis Is Certainly Not Dead And Buried Posted By : Don
2008-05-06 00:19:00 While most forex traders have moved away from fundamental analysis in favor of technical analysis this does not mean that fundamental analysis is dead and indeed it remains a very valuable tool in predicting currency price movements. The tax laws can be incredibly complicated to understand, especially for the Small Business Owner like yourself. How can you be expected to run your business AND keep up with all the tax rules and regulations? That's why over the years I've discovered many tax-saving strategies that will reduce your tax bill each and every year. These "strategies" are not difficult to understand, nor are they hard to implement.
The Latest Reason To Choose Technical Analysis Over Fundamental Analysis
2008-04-18 20:45:00 On Wednesday, it took me about 15 minutes to recognize and write about (VISN) breaking out to new highs, suggesting higher highs. And, last night, I spent a few minutes scanning through all my stock charts—not because I don’t care, but because I’ve been doing it for a decade so I know exactly what to look for—it’s easy…that’s why I mentioned RDTA in this morning’s pre-market post—it was a perfect perfect breakout, suggesting higher highs. … [visit site to read more] ShareThis
By: TimothySykes.com
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 26 February 2008
2008-02-26 04:55:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, February 26th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO coming out. I don't recommend trading that.Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core PPI m/m. This is a quite small indicator. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. In order to move the market, we would need to have a large deviation here. I would enter a trade with 0.2 deviation on Core PPI supported by 0.5 deviation in the same direction on headline. If the core goes the other way than the headline, or headline is just as expected, probably you would want to exit the trade rather sooner than later. Having said all that, if the core PPI m/m comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell GBP/USD and look for about 35 pips. If it comes out at 0% or negative, you may want to buy GBP/USD and also look for 35 pips move.Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA At 9 a.m. we will have U.S. S&P C20 House ...
Trading The Fundamental News
2008-02-23 13:35:00 While technical analysis is critical to currency trading - especially for pinpointing entries and exits - it is insufficient on its own for creating a comprehensive trading game plan. Market sentiment in FX is driven primarily by the economic and geopolitical news of the day. The key players in the currency market - Fortune 500 multinationals, the world's central banks, multibillion-dollar hedge funds and the top tier investment banks that service them - do not care if there is a double top in the EUR/JPY on the hourly candles. Instead, they formulate their trades by analyzing the most recent economic news and geopolitical developments, as well as the latest pronouncements from G-7 monetary authorities. Therefore, the proper approach to FX trading can be summarized as follows: trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically.Popular wisdom in the market states that traders who want to trade fundamentally should choose a longer time frame involving daily, or even weekly, charts. Th...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 22 February 2008
2008-02-22 02:54:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, February 22nd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales coming out. I recommend trading the headline number but be aware if there is a conflict, the initial spike may be in direction of headline but then it may be muted or go the other way depending on numbers. I think 0.6 trigger can be used because every time we had 0.6 deviation or greater, we had pretty good price actions. It is expected it will came out at 0.7 (or sometimes 0.8). If the headline comes out at 1.4%, you may sell USD/CAD and look for 35 to 40 pips. If it comes out 0.2% or lower, you may want to buy USD/CAD and expect 35 to 40 pips in the first hour of the report. Previous >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 21 February 2008
2008-02-21 02:53:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, February 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK At 4:30 a.m. we will have U.K. Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.25% (some people say 0.2% and some 0.3%). If it comes out at 0 or negative, I think it would be a good sell signal on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, looking for 50 pips of a price action in a first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.5% or more positive, I would recommend to buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY. For more details how the price moved in the past, please watch the video. Thursday, February 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. It is expected to come out at 349 K. If it comes out at 370K or more, sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 35 pips move. If it comes out at 330K or lower, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 35 pips move. Previous >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 20 February 2008
2008-02-20 07:08:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, February 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK At 4:30 a.m. we will have BOE Minutes coming out. The consensus is between 7:2 to 9:0. Majority of economists expect, however, 9:0 vote. I think if the vote is NOT 9:0 but 6:3 or 7:2, it would be worthy to buy GBP/USD. For 8:1 or 9:0 it would be a no trade. There is no sell opportunity for this report unless you know how to analyze the commentary.Tuesday, February 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI X Food & Energy m/m, and Building Permits and House Starts. My only concern is if we get dollar weakening CPI number and good numbers from the housing market (positive deviation of 100 or more), then it may move the market the other way. Let's assume there is no major conflict. If the CPI comes out at 0.3% or higher, I think it would be a sell opportunity for GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, it would be a buy opportunity for the GBP/USD. Either case, I woul...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 19 February 2008
2008-02-19 04:03:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, February 19th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI. You would need to have USD/SEK or EUR/SEK to trade this; if you don't have such pairs, skip this report. There are 4 numbers coming out: CPI Underline Inflation m/m and y/y, and CPI Headline m/m and y/y. I will focus on Underline Inflation y/y. If it comes out at 2.5% or higher, I would sell EUR/SEK. If it comes out at 2.1% or lower, I would buy EUR/SEK. I would expect at least 300, most likely 400 to 500 pips on a tradable deviation. Keep in mind that such pairs make a lot of pips but there is very little money per pip. Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA At 7:00 a.m. we will have CAD Core CPI m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and I would expect 30 to 40 pips on initial spike, and 50 to 55 pips total in the first hour of the report. If it comes out -0.1%, I would buy USD/CA...
Forex News Trading Tip: How To Trade The FOMC
2008-02-17 13:34:00 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates is one of the most powerful market movers in the forex market and when the markets move traders trading the news have the opportunity to make money.The FOMC sets the discount rate or federal funds rate and because interest rates are set higher to induce foreign investment and therefore fight inflation during times of prosperity and lower to increase spending during recessions they are one of the main factors influencing the strength of the dollar.Economic indicators play a huge role in the forex trading especially for traders who approach the market through fundamental analysis and trade the news. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision is one of the most influential indicators for the US dollar and you can be sure after the news is released there is going to be volatility in the markets and volatility is what traders thrive on.I have heard many 'traders' say never to trade the news and esp...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 14 February 2008
2008-02-14 02:39:00 Fundamental Analysis For Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30, buy USD/JPY if it comes out 327K or lower,and sell USD/JPY if it comes out 367K or higher looking for 35 pips or more onthe USD/JPY. As far as US and Canada Trade Balance is concerned, I think we'rebetter off leaving those alone. Also, there'sNZ Retail Sales at 16:45 expectedin at +0.1%. I plan to cautiously trade this one with a 0.6 trigger looking tobuy NZD/USD if it comes out at 0.7%or higher, and sell it if it comes out at-0.5% or more negative.Just be wary about the release time just minutes before the NY close/rolloverorder flows that could potentially mute or hurt the price action. Previous >
Forex Training - Supply And Demand Basics
2008-02-07 08:15:00 A popular method of trading Forex is to use fundamental analysis to make decisions about the direction a currency is likely to go in. This article will provide you with an introduction to how you can use the basic concept of supply and demand to improve your Forex trading results. The foreign exchange (Forex) market, works ...
FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis on Forex Trading
2008-02-04 01:14:00 It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best. When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy
FOREX TRADING: Fundamental Analysis & Economic Indicators
2008-02-04 01:00:00 Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy. Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 01 February 2008
2008-02-01 04:50:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, February 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI coming out. It is expected to come out at 52.5. Based on past performance, triggers such as 1.4 or 1.5 were not successful. I would use 2.0 trigger on it. If it comes out at 54.5 or higher, you may consider buying GBP/USD and expect 25 pips of a price action. If it comes out 50.5 or lower, you may consider to sell GBP/USD for 25 or 30 pips of a price action.Friday, February 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and the Unemployment Rate. Last month we had 0.2 deviation on the Unemployment Rate. When it deviates by 0.1, it is not that big deal but whenever you get 0.2%, in any country, it is significant and tends to be commanding. If it comes out 5.2%, that would be weakening the U.S. dollar. If it comes out at 4.8%, it would very strengthening the U.S. dollar. The Non-Farm Payroll is expected to come out at 65K t...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 31 January 2008
2008-01-31 08:01:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, January 31st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 2 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Price m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.4%. I would use 0.3 trigger on this one. Keep in mind that this is a quite new indicator so don't be so sure with your decisions and consider smaller profit targets like 10 to 20 pips, If it continues going on, so be it. If it gives a really good number such as 0.6 trigger, you may try to put a long term sell trade on EUR/GBP and try to bank 100 pips over the time, or if it comes very low, you may want to buy GBP/EUR for a long term position. In the short term we trade I would use 0.3 trigger. If it comes out at -0.1% or better (0 or positive), I would look to buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and expect 25 to 30 pips of the price action on GBP/USD. If it comes out lower than expected, such as -0.7 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY for a similar price action.Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New Yo...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 30 January 2008
2008-01-30 04:52:00 Fundamental AnalysisWednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA First, we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. I usually say trade it with 75K or even 100K trigger. However, I don't recommend to put any trade on this report unless you know what you are doing. All because of the U.S. Interest Rate statement that is coming out at 2:15 p.m. so it is hard to judge how the market will react on the ADP indicator right before the interest statement.Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA Then at 8:30 we will have the GDP Annualized q/q which is much more powerful that the ADP. It is expected to come out at 1.2% for the 4th quarter. I would trade this with 0.5% deviation. Keep in mind that even with 0.5 deviation (which is significant) sometimes it hits only 20 to 30 pips target on the EUR/USD or USD/CHF. This is also a situation where you may want to stay out. I personally will be trading it put I will also put less money than usually on this trade. If...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 29 January 2008
2008-01-29 02:52:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, January 29th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 a.m. we are going to have U.S. Durable Good X Transportation (Core) m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.0% or 0.1% according to some other sources. Based on the current situation, I recommend trading it with 1.5 to 2.5 trigger, and I would trade EUR/USD this time. Well, let's say if it comes out at 2% or higher, it would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell EUR/USD looking for 30 to 40 pips price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out low, at -2% or even more negative, I would then buy EUR/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips price action in the first hour. This report is "hit or miss" type. If it comes out against a strong trend, then I would not recommend taking the trade on given pair and I would look for an alternative pair such as USD/JPY or USD/CHF (don't forget to flip triggers for USD based pairs as the trigger is provided for EUR/USD) or GBP/USD. Just try to pick ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 28 January 2008
2008-01-28 01:40:00 Fundamental AnalysisMonday, January 28th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA At 10:00 a.m we will have U.S. New Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at 645K. Last month it came out at 647 K so it was a very shocking negative number. This time I would trade it on the USD/JPY. If it comes out at 700 K or higher, then I think it would constitute a good buy signal on the USD/JPY. If it comes out at 550 K or lower so a very large trigger on a negative side, then I think it would be enough to put a sell trade on USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips of movement, if not more. The reason why I set up much bigger trigger on the lower side is because the negative news on housing is largely priced in so it is not shocking to the market any more. Be very careful on this one, you really need to have a shocking number if you want to sell USD/JPY.Previous >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 24 January 2008
2008-01-24 04:05:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, January 24th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO. I would not trade this, leave it alone.Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have the U.S. Unemployment Claims coming out, and it is one of the rising stars now. It is expected to come out at 320 K. It is the best to trade 20 K trigger so if it comes out at 340 K or higher, it is more unemployment so it is bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out 300 K or lower, that's less unemployment and good for the dollar, and I would buy the USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 30 to 35 pips or more of the price action.Thursday, January 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Existing Home Sales coming out of the U.S. If we get a shockingly low number, it will not really move the market like it used to. What people are looking for is if there is any s...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 23 January 2008
2008-01-23 02:17:00 Fundamental AnalysisWednesday, January 23rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK GDP as well as BOE Minutes. Because M. King spoke today at 3.10 and said enough about inflation like it may be over 3%, a lot of people think they will not do an emergency cut, implying they are going to cut but not an emergency cut. This makes the Minutes a little less important than usually it is. However, if they vote 9-0 to hold the rates steady on January 10, that would be bullish for the British pound, and if they voted 5-4, then it would be weakening for the pound. We will also have the GDP indicator at the same time. Last time the BOE Minutes dominated; this time, I think, the GDP may be more important. However, you have to look at the whole picture and try to get a good sense what is going on. Even 0.1 trigger is significant on the advanced GDP out of the UK but to be safe due to BOE Minutes coming out at the same time, I would trade 0.2 trigger. If the GDP q/q...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 22 January 2008
2008-01-22 01:34:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, January 22th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA At 8:30 a.m New York time we will have Canadian Retail Sales headline coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.3, and I believe the headline number is a little more watched than the core number. Because we will have Canadian interest rate statement, that may interrupt this trade a little. Deviations of 0.3 and 0.4 are quite risky, 0.5 is a little better but because of the interest rate statement coming out later I would use 0.6 deviation on the headline retail sales. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher I would sell USD/CAD; if it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would buy USD/ CAD. If the trigger is hit, I would expect 25 to 35 pips move in the first 30 minutes after the report. With a big deviation such as 1 or 1.2, it can easily move the market by 40 to even 70 pips or more. Recently retail sales came out, in general, lower so if you consider any pre-news trade, you may consider it towards Canadian dol...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 18 January 2008
2008-01-18 01:32:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, January 18th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKOn Friday we are going to have UK Retal Sales coming out. I would be conservative here although UK reports performed quite well in the past. Last few weeks we had a few UK reports that came out very close to expectations so the London session has not really been tested; the weird price action was happening during New York session. I still think there is a good chance this report should go well. Also, out of 12 reports, there were two 0.1 deviations that were definitely not tradable. There is also one 0.6 deviation that did not work well as it went up by 25 pips and then it went the other direction. Every other report even with 0.2 deviation worked really well with a very profitable price action, and that was 9 trades like that so it is hard for me to be pessimistic here. You can try to trade 0.2 deviation but I will use 0.3 deviation here. If the UK Retail Sales m/m comes out at 0.5 or higher, I would buy GBP...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 17 January 2008
2008-01-17 01:28:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, January 17th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Housing Starts. It is expected to come out at 1.15 M (1150 K). Out of all housing indicators this indicator is the most powerful one. I think the lower number is kind of priced in since people are expecting lower numbers so I would be a little bit more conservative on the sell and a little more aggressive on the buy signal. If it comes out at 1.2 M (1200 K) or higher, that should be a good buy signal on USD/JPY, looking for about 30 to 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 1.05 M (1050 K) or lower, I think that would signal much more negativity than expected and it would be a good signal on sell, and I would look for 30 to 40 pips or more on the USD/JPY.Thursday, January 17th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10 a.m. we will have Bernanke speaking. It is something you can be aware of. It is hard to say what may surprise the market so I don'...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 16 January 2008
2008-01-16 02:19:00 Fundamental AnalysisWednesday, January 16th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have the U.K. Average Earnings + Bonus. I will be trading it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 4.1 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If it comes out at 3.7 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If there is a conflict with unemployment rate, I would stay out of the trade. Ideally, you want to see unemployment number coming out as expected or coming the opposite direction than the Average Earnings. Last month we had 0.2 deviation and it moved the market about 30 pips in the first couple of minutes.Wednesday, January 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAThen at 8:30 we will have U.S. Core CPI coming out. I would trade this on EUR/USD. We did not have a lot of deviations on the core CPI but if we get a deviation, I believe the EUR/USD will perform best. Stay away from USD/JPY on this report as it is a quite unpredictable pair on this report. On 0.1 trigger expect about 40 pips price action. ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 15 January 2008
2008-01-15 01:30:00 Fundamental AnalysisTuesday, January 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI y/y coming out. Historically I was trading the y/y headline but recently the core number became more in focus so make sure that the deviation agrees between the headline and the core number; if there is a conflict, I would stay out. Historically, the headline is more powerful but keep in mind that in November we had a tradable deviation on it but the core number screw everything up. I would trade a 0.2 deviation on the headline y/y. If it comes out at 2.2 or higher, it would be a buy GBP/USD signal. If it comes out at 1.8 or lower, then it would be a sell GBP/USD signal.Tuesday, January 15th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONEAt 5:00 a.m we will have German ZEW. A deviation of 15 can be tradable but this indicator is not a hot indicator, not even warm so I don't recommend trading it at this time.Tuesday, January 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 10 January 2008
2008-01-10 04:44:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, January 10th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKTomorrow we will have the UK Trade Balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. This indicator used to perform quite well but last 3 times it failed with 700 M or even 900 M trigger as the price action went the other way. If you want to trade this, use 1000 M (1 B) deviation. Therefore, if it comes out at -8200 M or more negative, that would be weakening the pound and I would look to sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move price action to the downside on the GBP/USD. On the other hand, if it comes out at -6200 M or less negative, then it would be positive for the U.S. pound and I would expect to see 30 to 40 pips move price action to the upside on the GBP/USD.Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 7 a.m. we will have UK Interest Statement coming out. It is expected they will hold the rate at 5.5% because they just cut rates recently. There is also 20% to 25% economists expecting them to cut the rate. H...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 08 January 2008
2008-01-08 02:19:00 Fundamental Analysis Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I think we need to be more conservative on this report and use 5.0 trigger. If it comes out at 4.7% or higher, that would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips move or more. If it comes out at -5.3 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIAThen at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would be very positive for the AUD so you can buy AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move or more. Last month the number really overreacted and we saw 77 ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 04 January 2008
2008-01-04 03:47:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, January 4th, 2008 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLANDFirst, at 1:45 a.m. we will have Swiss CPI coming out. I recommend you to trade y/y number with 0.2 triggers. If the Swiss CPI comes out at 2.00% or higher, then it would be strengthening the Swiss Frank, and I would short either USD/CHF for 30 pips price action, or GBP/CHF for 40 to 50 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.6% or lower, that would be weakening the Swiss Frank, and I would go long on USD/CHF or GBP/CHF, looking for 30 and 40 to 50 pips, respectively. You can make more pips on GBP/CHF but sometimes the spread is too big to take a risk. Choose a pair wisely based on your broker.Friday, January 4th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 51.5. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger so if it comes out at 50.5 or lower, I would short GBP/USD, looking for 30 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 03 January 2008
2008-01-03 03:56:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. That is expected to come out at 47.5 K, and I see 33K expected from another source so that numbers may change as we are approaching to the report. Last month it came out at 189K, and it was a great trade. To be safe, a reading of -20K or more negative would be weakening the U.S. dollar in general. A reading of 100K or higher would be strengthening the U.S. dollar. I would trade this on USD/JPY. I would look to buy USD/JPY on reading of 100K or higher, and sell USD/JPY on a reading of -20K or more negative.Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAThen at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims which is expected to come out at 345K. It is a weekly indicator and recently more people are focused on it. If it comes out at 360K or higher, that should be weakening for the dollar, and it would constitute a sell...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 28 Desember 2007
2007-12-28 03:01:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, December 28th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKOn Friday at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have the UK Nationwide House Prices. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I recommend trading 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0 or positive, it would be a buy signal on GBP/USD, good for 25 to 30 pips. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, it would be a sell signal on GBP/USD, good for 25 to 30 pips. You can also trade GBP/JPY.Friday, December 28th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USAThen at 10 a.m. New York time we will have the U.S. New Home Sales. If it comes out at 770K or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and a reading of 670K or lower would give a sell signal on USD/JPY with about 30 pips profit target.Previous >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 27 Desember 2007
2007-12-27 03:04:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, December 27th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAOn Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Durable Goods x Transportation and Initial Jobless Claims. The Initial Jobless Claims is expected to come out at 340K versus 346K last month. If Durable Goods comes out at 3% or higher, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD. A reading of -2% or more negative would constitute a buy signal on GBP/USD. Then look at Initial Jobless Claims: 20K trigger should be tradable.Thursday, December 27th, 2007 (6:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPANWe are going to have Tokyo CPI coming out. I would not trade this one.Previous >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 21 Desember 2007
2007-12-21 03:23:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, December 21st, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UKAt 4:30 a.m New York time we will have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I recommend you to trade 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, GBP/USD may go down about 40 pips. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, GBP/USD may move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.Friday, December 21st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADAAt 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few reports coming out: Canadian GDP and Retail Sales. I would focus on the Headline Retail Sales. For some reasons, the headline was moving market a little bit better recently. I would trade it with a 0.6 trigger so if it comes out at -0.9 or more negative, that would be a buy USD/CAD signal. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, that would probably be a sell USD/CAD signal. Look for 30 to 35 pips either direction if the trigger his hit. The retails sales is in general more powerful than the GDP; ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 17 Desember 2007
2007-12-17 02:17:00 Fundamental AnalysisMonday, December 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 8:30 a.m we will have U.S. Empire State Business Conditions Index and U.S. Current Account. Because they are coming at the same time, it is hard to say which one is going to grab the market. Most likely Empire Manufactures is more important one, and usually when it is in focus by itself a deviation of 10 or 12 can be tradable but I would skip that one.Monday, December 17th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USAAt 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions. This indicator used to work, then it did not work, and past 3 months it started working again because of very large deviations. It is expected to come out at 49 B. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I would look to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 100 K or more positive, then I would buy USD/JPY. This is one of the financial health indicators so I think USD/JPY should work better on this one.Monday, December 17th, 2007 (1:00 p.m. New Yo...
Buckle Up ? Turbulence Ahead (Part II)
2007-12-14 15:48:00 Watch changes in tone in the job market Employment-related indicators must be carefully followed too. There are signs of change in the trend of improvement to date, with the jobless rate in September-October climbing back above 4% and rising in consecutive months, and indications also that the job offers-to-applications ratio may soon drop below 1 again. ...
Buckle Up ? Turbulence Ahead (Part I)
2007-12-14 15:18:00 Decoupling notion prevails, but a sharp slowdown looks likely Our US economics team has lowered its 2008 growth forecast all the way to 1.1% and expects a mild recession in the first half of 2008. Meanwhile, our economists covering emerging markets, including China, remain bullish. The decoupling notion - that major economies are likely to still ...
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 14 Desember 2007
2007-12-14 02:30:00 Fundamental AnalysisFriday, December 14th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USAWe will have only one tradable indicator, and that is Core CPI coming out of the U.S. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I think this is worthy to trade with any deviation. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be dollar weakening so buy signal on GBP/USD, and we can expect 35 to 50 pips move or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, we can expect a sell signal on GBP/USD, good for 35 to 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. The CPI is less in focus than it used to be so we may get a choppy price action but still quite important.SUMMARY:* Report: US Core CPI* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.1% or lower* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.3% or higherPrevious >
Forex Fundamental Analysis - 13 Desember 2007
2007-12-13 09:52:00 Fundamental AnalysisThursday, December 13th, 2007 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND At 3:30 New York time we will have Swiss Interest Rate coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.75%. About 16% of economists are expecting them to hike the rate. If they do hike to 3.00%, it will be a clear sell signal on the GBP/CHF, good for 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they leave the rate unchanged, unless you are very experienced I would recommend you stay out because the price action will all depend on comments. If they cut the rate to 2.50%, then would be a buy signal, good for 50 to 70 pips but this will not happen. Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few indicators. I would skip CAD manufacturing shipments as it was not performing well at all. I would focus on the U.S. Core Retail Sales. It is expected to come at 0.6%. If it comes 0% or lower, that would be weakening U.S. dollar, and I would ...
Aggressive Internet Marketing Made Possible by sas_femitaylor
2007-12-12 13:32:00 Aggressive internet marketing means full-blown marketing and promotions that exceed any businessman's expectations. A business needs fierce internet marketing. No more, no less. But to make it low... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
Find the Pattern with Better Trades by sas_svetlana
2007-12-12 13:31:00 I am chartist and a technical trader. I believe that the first line of analysis is to find patterns. Line drawing and straight line analysis is the standard. It has been and continues to be the base... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
The discipline to follow rules is the mark of a top trader by Mike Estrey
2007-12-12 13:30:00 This article focuses on the discipline involved in using a technical approach to trading the stockmarket, but the rules shown below could easily be modified and in some cases equally applied to any... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
Learn Forex trading - 10 Essential Tips and 10 Myths to Avoid For Huge Prof
2007-12-12 13:29:00 If you want to enjoy forex trading success, you need to avoid the 10 common myths enclosed and follow the 10 tips - if you do you will learn forex trading the right way and could make a lot of money... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
Forex Trading - How many technical indicators do you useâ?¦.or need? by T
2007-12-12 13:27:00 Being one of the Power Course instructors allows me to see the charts that new traders use for their trading decisions as they will send them to us for our opinions. I must say that many of them are... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
How Do You Make Money In Currency Trading? by Tom Howze
2007-12-12 13:26:00 The question, "How do you make money in currency trading?" is being asked by investors and potential investors worldwide as they witness the multi-year downturn trend of the US dollar and upswings in... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/
Keeping Your Bottom Line Strong by Terry H. Hill
2007-12-12 13:25:00 Henry Ford once said, â??Money is like an arm or legďż˝"use it or lose it.â?ť There is a lot of truth in Mr. Ford's statement. One of the biggest challenges that entrepreneurs face when building a... Online Forex Trading Resources - Improve Your Forex Trading, Foreign Exchange, Stock Exchange, Option Trading, Commodity Trading, Future Exchange, Option Forex, Option Stock, Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Currency Trading Strategy with simple to understand guides. Learn How to leverage your investment and maximize your return. Please also visit to http://online-forex-trading-rev-iews.blogspot.com/ |
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