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Housing Bubble

Did Liberal Democrats cause the housing bubble?
2008-08-31 14:10:00
From: NWI Connect Restricting Housing - Spells Liberal Democrat Domination Source: Political Calculations. We've been saying this for two years on Daltonsbriefs and Porter County Politics, if you arbitrarily restrict housing for reasons of environmentalism or "impact" politics, you run the risk of negative equity and eventually highly liberal policies that lead to urban decline and slums. In general liberal housing policies can be shown to have caused the bubble and the foreclosure crisis that we now face in some markets.The first map, showing the percentage of homeowners with negative equity in April-June 2008 for U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, was created by Hannah Fairfield of the New York Times as a reference for an article about the aftermath of the housing bust in the central valley of California: The second map, which was created by David Leip, shows the degree to which voters in the U.S. voted in favor of a particular political party, by county. Note that in...
Pending Sales No Longer Good Indicator Of Future Sales
2008-06-09 20:01:00
According to CNBC this morning, Housing Market Is Showing Signs of a Turnaround: Pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in April to the highest level in six months as foreclosed properties flooded the market and drove prices sharply lower, a real estate trade group report showed. The National Association of ...
Crack of Doom: Feeling Poorer?
2008-06-09 09:03:00
It’s Monday, and if your wallet seems thinner to you these days, there’s a reason: The net worth of Americans fell $US1.7 trillion in the first quarter - the biggest drop since 2002; the amount of equity people have in their homes fell to 46.2%, the lowest level on record (and house prices are still falling); ...
Las Vegas May Home Sales: Inventory and Sales Up, Prices Down
2008-06-09 09:01:00
The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) has released their May numbers.  The biggest news is the median price, which declined from $301,352 to $236,692 for a 21.5% drop. According to the Hubble Smith of the Review Journal:
Phoenix Realtors Jumping From A Sinking Ship
2008-06-09 04:57:00
In 2005, you couldn’t throw a rock in Phoenix without hitting a Realtor, but that isn’t the case any more.  Apparently a lot fewer people are signing up for real estate school these days. [Hat tip Asset Hunter!] Connie Ross wonders a little when people tell her they want to enroll in real-estate school. Ross, a ...
Portland: Not a ?bubble?, but still a bust
2008-06-08 14:25:00
  We keep hearing how the "Gloom and Doomers" are overstating the problems.  After all, the pundits tell us, "All real estate is local,"  so not all markets are feeling the pain.  There are still "bubble-proof" markets like Portland, Oregon: NORTH PLAINS, Ore. - Here at the western edge of the Portland metro area, green fields ...
Government Is No Good At ?Flip That House?
2008-06-07 15:01:00
Even some of the sharpest folks [Or perhaps I should say ESPECIALLY the sharpest folks] in real estate have gotten out of house "flipping". In a declining economy, with a glut of homes on the market, and financing difficult- it’s next to impossible to have flipping make financial sense.  That doesn’t stop government from wanting ...
Option ARM Reset Schedule Moves Up As Homeowners Feel Distress
2008-06-06 15:44:00
Business Week has published an interesting article on option ARMs. The general thesis is that they will be the next wave of homes that are entering foreclosure in the United States. With subprime loans wreaking havoc across the United States and world financial markets, the housing market has been suffering. The unsold inventory and foreclosures are ...
Op-Ed Friday: Banks Experiencing Subprime Losses
2008-06-06 14:48:00
It’s Friday, and with mounting foreclosures and rumblings at Lehman Brothers, I couldn’t help but think that Doomers would enjoy this video: We welcome your comments on subprime losses, or anything else housing related.
Canada: Old, Frozen Commercial Paper Becomes New Again
2008-06-06 09:01:00
From Bloomberg yesterday: June 5 (Bloomberg) — A Canadian judge approved a plan to convert C$32 billion ($31.5 billion) of frozen commercial paper to new notes that mature within nine years over objections of noteholders who have indicated they will appeal to retain their right to sue sellers of the debt. ...
Housing Bubble ? 5 biggest mistakes by real estate investors
2008-06-06 01:02:00
The housing bubble left many investors with empty pockets. There are many people talking about real estate housing bubble for years now. (...)
Tax Those Vacant Properties Away!
2008-06-05 14:04:00
Washington, D.C. has an unusual solution to all those vacant properties- double their taxes! [Hat tip M!] The D.C. Council voted Tuesday to double the tax rate on vacant properties and make permanent some of the tighter enforcement rules the D.C. Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs has been practicing since early last ...
Workouts AFTER Foreclosure
2008-06-04 09:01:00
I had an interesting conversation with an Austin attorney yesterday. He said that many of his clients are, shall we say, less than sophisticated.  He has had several that have come to him AFTER they were foreclosed on, trying to save their house.  Surprisingly, more often than not, he says it’s possible. There are a lot of ...
Will Home Prices Turn Before You Know It?
2008-06-03 15:03:00
The real estate pundits are out and warning that you should buy before prices start to go up.  From Irwin Kellner, chief economist for Marketwatch and Capital One Bank: Housing could shift from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market before you know it. Now don’t get me wrong. I am not saying that all is ...
Phoenix Home Sales: May Preview
2008-06-02 15:55:00
While the official numbers from ARMLS will not be out until the 15th, we thank M as always for our early preview of Phoenix home sales.  This month it appears that sales are down year-over-year, but only slightly: Active    &-#160; 53,104 UC     -;     -  8,304 Sold    -60;     5,605 According to ARMLS, 5795 homes sold in May 2007. Our unofficial inventory stood at 54,705 last ...
Crack of Doom: Today?s Ugly Graph
2008-06-02 14:56:00
It’s Monday, and do you know what your Fed is doing?
Two Years Of Doom: Happy Birthday To Us!
2008-06-01 10:01:00
On June 1, 2006, Doom went online with its first post.  Much to my amazement, two years and 1,404 posts later, we are still here. I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone who makes Doom possible. It was my intent from our inception to have HousingDoom be a forum and a resource, rather than ...
Greenspan Apparently Suffering From ?Bubble Blindness?
2008-05-31 16:06:00
From Reuters yesterday: MONTREAL (Reuters) - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday that he does not expect another "bubble" in world markets for a long time, and that central banks at any rate do not control the long-term interest rates that can be related to bubbles.
Builders: ?Agents Drag Your Customers Way Out Here, We?ll Pay Your Gas?
2008-05-31 15:37:00
For developments far from the center of town, apparently the potential of a large cobroke isn’t enough to entice agents any more. More and more often, the builders are offering to kick in with gas money- this D.R. Horton offer being the most I’ve seen so far.  Usually the builders just offer a one trip ...
In Parts of CA, Lenders Have Lock On Resale Market, Resellers Out Of Luck
2008-05-30 15:28:00
Thinking of putting your house on the market in Stockton, CA?  Good luck getting an agent to represent you: In some areas of California, so many foreclosed homes are available to buy on the cheap that real estate agents are discouraging prospective sellers from even putting their houses on the market. Perhaps the most ...
Do Valuations Continue to Slide for Years? What?s The Answer?
2008-05-30 13:33:00
I?m like everyone else. All I can do is take what I?ve been taught couple it with my experiences and what I?ve learned to make what to me appears to be an informed decision. Therein lies the rub at least as far as this real estate debacle is concerned. I look at the foreclosure filings in my county and see they are up. I read articles that tell me other areas, with few exceptions, are also experiencing an uptick in foreclosure filings. I combine the two pieces of information and come to the conclusion the foreclosure mess will be with us for the remainder of 2008 and likely throughout 2009. I also deduce, maybe incorrectly, that the turn around won?t happen until 2010, if then. On the other hand, I also read articles that tell me this mess will bottom out in 2009. One of the reasons stated is that people are staying away from the real estate market today because they don’t want to buy an asset that might lose value right away. Wouldn?t it stand to reason that if the mess isn...
Newly Delinquent Borrowers Outnumbering Those Catching Up Two-To-One
2008-05-30 09:01:00
Defaults and delinquencies show no sign of slowing: May 30 (Bloomberg) — Newly delinquent mortgage borrowers outnumbered people who caught up on their overdue payments by two to one last month, a sign that nationwide efforts to help homeowners avoid default may be failing. In April, 73,880 homeowners with privately insured mortgages fell more than ...
Foreclosure is rarely fair
2008-05-29 16:57:00
From CNBC’s Diana Olick: [Hat tip L!]   I was moderating a panel of two governors and an economist today on the foreclosure crisis. It was much of the usual stuff until Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell made a bold proposal. He said that in addition to the legislation making its way through Congress to ...
Senate Doesn?t Want Borrowers Walking
2008-05-29 16:19:00
About the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008 just passed by the Senate: Buried in the proposed legislation is something new and revolutionary, an effort to stop mortgage walk-aways. According to author Peter G. Miller: The Senate legislation addresses the walk away issue by saying that before borrowers can get FHA financing they must ...
Banks Choking Home Sales? Should Have Done It Earlier
2008-05-28 09:01:00
Darn those banks, anyway.  More and more they are insisting that buyers be able to afford the homes they purchase, and that the homes be worth what is being paid.  This isn’t sitting well with everyone: It’s not that people don’t want homes, it’s that they can’t buy them under the stricter lending standards. That’s ...
MLS Now Open To Online Real Estate Brokers
2008-05-28 05:11:00
Thanks to everyone who gave me a heads up, and to G.H. who sent this link to the Arizona Star: WASHINGTON — The Justice Department gave a boost today to online real estate brokers — and potentially their clients — by forcing new industry policies that give Internet-based agents access to home listings they ...
Case-Shiller: Home Price Drop Largest On Record
2008-05-27 15:23:00
From Reuters this morning:   Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged a record 14.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, marking a pace five times faster than the last housing recession, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller national home price index reported on Tuesday. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 ...
The burst of the housing bubble will last a long time
2008-05-27 06:18:00
This from CNBC: “This is going to be another difficult spring,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.” The devastation is certainly a far cry from the boom years from ...
Is Las Vegas Real Estate Showing Signs Of Life?
2008-05-26 13:00:00
The real estate agent seems to be the eternal optimist. In the middle of the credit crunch, foreclosure crisis and general market malaise, he or she will be smiling broadly and proclaiming that this is a great time to buy. You could almost picture the agent showing a property that had been devastated by an earthquake, flooded by a hurricane and whisked away by a tornado and saying “It?s a steal, a little paint and new carpet and it?ll be good as new!” Lately I?ve been hearing real estate professionals here in Las Vegas saying that they are busier than they?ve been in a long time, just more puffing? Houses being snapped up in a matter of days, multiple offers, bidding more than the listing price, - sounds like the real estate market circa 2005. However, that?s what I?m being told is happening today. This is the world of bank-owned homes, or REOs, in Las Vegas at the moment. This isn?t some pundit spouting numbers, or an economist manipulating data to support a pre-formed ...
Canadaian Housing Market Also Subject To Housing ?Physics? And Is Going Dow
2008-05-24 14:08:00
Alas, what goes up, must come down- even in Canada.  After months of the MSM reporting that the Canadian housing market would not go the way of their neighbors to the south- the Canadian housing market is going the way of their neighbors to the south:   Canada’s long-running housing boom has ended, with the formerly ...
April National Existing Home Sales: Sales Down, Inventory At Record Levels
2008-05-23 16:52:00
JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli said that existing home sales were "No worse than expectations".  If you want to be positive, that’s about as good as it gets.  According to Reuters this morning: WASHINGTON, May 23 (Reuters) - The pace of existing home sales in the United States fell 1 percent in April to a ...
Op-Ed Friday: Arizonans Losing Home Equity At Fastest Rate Ever
2008-05-23 09:02:00
It’s Friday, and in Arizona, home equity is "slip-sliding away": [Hat tip MR!] New figures Thursday from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight show the value of an average home in the state slid 5.5 percent in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period a year earlier. So a ...
Loan Funds Nearly Two Months After Closing
2008-05-23 09:01:00
On May 5, we heard from Jacque, who hadn’t received her funds a month after closing.  We heard again from Jacque yesterday- the loan funded at last: Sorry it took so long for me to post an update, but things got a little crazy for awhile. The good news is, the loan finally funded and all ...
Boarding Up Abandoned Homes? Tastefully
2008-05-22 09:01:00
For areas now experiencing high levels of foreclosures, here’s a great instructional video from the city of Dayton– How to make boarded up properties look less like they are boarded up.  
Phoenix April Home Sales Down, Not Up? Results Skewed By Trustee Sales
2008-05-21 09:01:00
[My thanks to everyone who forwarded me this one- and there were a lot of you!] According to yesterday’s Arizona Republic, Jay Butler’s April home sales report was wrong: Butler compiles a report each month on home-resale transactions in Maricopa County. The report said home resales were up 15 percent compared with the same month in 2007, ...
Alt-A Loans: The Crisis Yet To Come?
2008-05-20 18:14:00
Last week, James Connery commented on my weekly post that he thought the next great crisis, following the current one caused in large measure by subprime mortgages, will come to us via something called Alt-A loans. And, he just may be right! Alternative to grade-A prime loans..or Alt-A loans..unlike subprime loans, were dished out to folks considered credit worthy. But, and here’s where the plot thickens, many of these loans, says the New York Times, were given “without verification of income or assets and on tricky terms…” Watch out for 2009 Watch out because these loans will reset next year. And, says the Times, “In coming years, if price declines are in line with expectations, Alt-A losses are projected to total about $150 billion. So, will this crisis soon to be upon us be better or worse than the current crisis caused by subprime mortgages? No one really knows for sure. But brace yourselves for a political and economic rollercoaster ride. Advertise...
Getting Paid To Walk Away
2008-05-20 09:01:00
It apparently isn’t just homeowners walking away from their homes.  Now squatters are moving into foreclosure properties- and making a quick buck while they are at it: Squatters are moving into foreclosed homes and posing as tenants so they can live in comfort until the bank either goes through the eviction process or bribes them to ...
The casualties of the burst of the housing bubble
2008-05-20 00:05:00
The chickens are coming home to roost. Irresponsible people who took money out of their homes to buy boats are now losing them. According to the New York Times: When a boat owner defaults on his loan, the bank hires Jeff Henderson to seize its property. The former Army detective tracks the boat down in a backyard ...
You Are More In Debt Than You Think
2008-05-19 17:21:00
So you don’t use credit cards, own your house free and clear and the car is paid off?  You might be thinking you don’t have much in the way of debt.  If Sheila Weinberg, chief executive for the Institute for Truth in Accounting is right, you are on the hook for more- a lot more: The ...
Fannie Mae: Building The Underwater Mortgages Of Tomorrow
2008-05-19 09:01:00
Fannie Mae continues to trod where other lenders don’t dare to tread- they are no longer worrying about loaning in "declining markets": WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) today announced a new, national policy on down payment requirements for conventional, conforming mortgages the company will purchase or guarantee. Starting June 1, 2008, Fannie ...
Ignoring the Dollar Problem in the Price of Oil
2008-05-19 04:30:00
No doubt, there are quite a few problems behind why oil has jumped above $128 a barrel.  Never mind hooey arguments about greedy oil companies that resonate with the economic illiterates among the loudmouth media and the complaining voters. While we don’t have much good to say about any politician on the matter of energy, we ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Ignoring the Dollar Problem in the Price of Oil", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/200-8/05/18/ignoring-the-dollar-pro-blem-in-the-price-of-oil/" });
The ?Psychological Trauma? Of Foreclosure
2008-05-18 15:54:00
There have been a lot of excuses made for bailing out homeowners, but this one from economist Robert Shiller takes the cake- now we should worry that going into foreclosure will hurt people’s self esteem:  [Shame on you Shiller, you are usually one of my heroes!]   It is important to consider the psychological trauma of ...
I?m shocked, shocked that there?s gambling going on here!
2008-05-16 21:24:00
This is too ripe. From the Financial Times: ECB voices ‘high concern’ over liquidity scheme By Paul J Davies and Norma Cohen in London and Anousha Sakoui in Vienna Thursday May 15 2008 17:45 The European Central Bank on Thursday voiced its “high concern” at growing evidence that banks are exploiting its efforts to unblock the frozen funding markets ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "I’m shocked, shocked that there’s gambling going on here!", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/200-8/05/16/im-shocked-shocked-that--theres-gambling-going-on-here/-" });
Op-Ed Friday: Housing Starts In The Eye Of The Beholder
2008-05-16 16:19:00
It’s Friday, and housing starts are either at a 17 year low or "showing growth"- depending on your choice of spin: Feeling negative? May 16 (Bloomberg) — Construction of U.S. single-family houses in April dropped to the lowest level in 17 years, even as building of condominiums and townhouses rebounded. Builders broke ground on 692,000 single-family ...
Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Dollar Degradation
2008-05-16 00:42:00
“The Federal Reserve as other central banks is obviously taking onto its balance sheet a lot of mortgages these days.” “Well, the creators of the Federal Reserve system would be rolling over in their graves if they knew the Federal Reserve is buying mortgages.” – Former Federal Reserve Chariman Paul Volcker Whether or not the creators ...SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Sowing the Seeds of Inflation and Dollar Degradation", url: "http://www.ernharth.com/vi/200-8/05/15/sowing-the-seeds-of-inf-lation-and-dollar-degradation/"- });
Sorry Greenspan, But I?m Not Seeing It
2008-05-15 09:01:00
According to Marketwatch yesterday, "Greenspan sees U.S. house price hit bottom in 2009".  I think he’s seeing things. [Thanks L!] U.S. home prices will likely bottom out in early 2009 after the market absorbs excess inventories, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told audiences in Asia Wednesday, according to news reports. Greenspan, ...
The Reality Fairy Has Left The Room- And Possibly The Country
2008-05-14 20:09:00
Here’s a novel solution to our economic woes.  Let’s just redefine what makes for a "good" economy.  From today’s Arizona Republic:  [Thanks L!] Arizona’s economy may seem ugly right now but when you look at it from a historical context, it looks pretty good, an Arizona State University economics expert said Tuesday. Home building is ...
Phoenix: April Home Sales Up But Median Down 21%
2008-05-14 18:31:00
Yesterday Jay Butler released his monthly home sales report for the Phoenix area: MESA, Ariz. — For the first time since July 2005, the local resale housing market has posted year-over-year improvement. April had 5,585 recorded sales in contrast to 4,855 sales for a year ago and 4,335 sales in March 2008. Given the ...
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