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Ad Wars: Count The Votes
2008-06-01 15:46:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV.Presidential Watch: Michigan And FloridaA new group, Count The Votes Casts PAC, aired this ad in Washington, DC and on CNN nationally urging members of the the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee to seat all the full delegate slates from Michigan and Florida. The ad features several older Democrats who insist the contests were valid, reference the Florida recount in 2000, and suggest disaster lies ahead should the party not count the votes.Senate Watch: ColoradoDemocratic Congressman Mark Udall has launched his second ad of the cycle, "Worth." Udall focuses on national defense in the ad, calling for the creation of a new army division, improving veterans care, and finding Osama bin Laden. "Isn't there a better way to protect America?" Udall asks.Senate Watch: New MexicoRepublican Congressman Steve Pearce decries attacks from House colleague Heather Wilson in his latest ad, "We Can Do Better And We Deserve Better." The Republica...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Outside Groups Take Aim In Colorado
2008-05-21 18:34:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV.Presidential Watch: John McCainThe left-leaning MoveOn.org has launched a new ad urging John McCain to fire aide Charlie Black. The ad attacks Black for lobbying for "the world's worst tyrants." Several other McCain campaign staffers have recently resigned due to their past lobbying work, which could undermine McCain's message of reform. Senate Watch: ColoradoDemocrat Mark Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer both launched their ad campaigns this week and now two outside groups are getting in on the act as well. Coloradans for Economic Growth, a group that seems to have been formed specifically to support Bob Schaffer, is up with a new ad, "Sources," which touts Schaffer's support for alternative energy.The League of Conservation Voters, a left-leaning environmental group, is airing its own ad, "Fingerprint," which attacks Schaffer for his associations with the oil and gas industry. Senate Watch: New HampshireFormer Democra...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: McCain Looks To The Future, Vaguely
2008-05-16 06:12:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV.Hillary ClintonThe American Leadership Project, a pro-Clinton group that has run ads in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, is airing a new ad in Oregon. "Middle" talks about Clinton's plan to boost the economy and help the middle class. Of note, this is the first ad from the group that doesn't offer even the slightest hint of an attack on Obama.John McCainIn conjunction with a speech the candidate delivered today that outlined his vision for a first term in the White House, the McCain camp released a new web-only ad today highlighting similar points. "2013" is narrated by actors Powers Boothe, who has voiced all of McCain's general election ads, but like all of McCain's prior ads, it offers lofty goals and only vague specifics or none at all.Senate Watch: ColoradoA day after Democrat Mark Udall launched his first ad, Republican Bob Schaffer has taken to the air as well. In "Moving Forward," Schaffer stresses his Colorado r...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Looking Down The Ballot
2008-05-14 19:31:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV. We now have 360 videos in our archives, with more than 50 subscribers!Gubernatorial Watch: MissouriHouse Republican Kenny Hulshof launched his first ad today with the release of "Blessed." It is generally an introductory spot in which Hulshof talks about his upbringing and values. Hulshof faces off against Treasurer Sarah Steelman for the right to face Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon in November. The primary is August 5th.Senate Watch: ColoradoDemocratic Congressman Mark Udall has hit the airwaves with the release of his first ad, "Stand." In the ad, Udall talks energy, seeking independence from foreign oil and the development of green jobs.Senate Watch: MinnesotaThe American Future Fund, which has already run ads this cycle supporting Republican Norm Coleman, is up with a new web ad, "Laugh Track," that attacks Democrat Al Franken. The spot hits Franken for supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants and failing to p...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-04-13 00:42:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings--look for a fresh set of rankings next week. AlabamaThe latest polling continues to show Republican Senator Jeff Session (pictured) with a commanding lead in his bid for a third term. Sessions leads state Senator Vivian Figures 57%-36%. Three-fourths of the electorate hold a favorable view of the incumbent, while only 39% view Figures favorably. Figures, who isn't well known outside of her own district, doesn't appear to pose a serious threat to Sessions.AlaskaNew numbers out of Alaska confirm that Republican Senator Ted Stevens, in office since 1970, is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. Elected by landslide margins in every election since he assumed office, Stevens (pictured) holds a narrow 46%-45% lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In trouble largely because of a federal corruption investigation, Stevens earns support from just 71% ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-03-19 05:27:00 Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race befor...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-03-01 00:27:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country.AlaskaRepublican Ted Stevens (pictured), the 84 year old veteran lawmaker, officially filed for re-election last week. The move puts to rest any speculation that Stevens would step aside in light of an active FBI investigation into his ties to an oil contractor. Ordinarily elected by landslide margins, Stevens faces danger from Democrats and from within his own party in 2008. Jerry Heikes and David Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in 1996, are already in the race. Should Republicans feel Stevens' presence on the ballot endangers their chances to keep the seat, pressure could be increased for him to retire or more prominent challengers could emerge. In 2006, unpopular Republican Governor Frank Murkowski finished third to now-Governor Sarah Palin in the primary. Of course, Murkowski doesn't have the same clout that Stevens carries within the state--he's been in office since 1968, routinely brings pork spe...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-19 00:18:00 ColoradoPolls continue to show an extremely tight open seat race in Colorado between Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) and former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. The latest numbers show Schaffer with a 44%-43% lead--the very narrow margin is a growing trend in this contest. Though the race was initially pegged a likely Democratic pickup by most observers given the recent evidence (Democrats have picked up a House and Senate seat in recent years, adding the governor's office in 2006), we've rated the race a toss-up in our latest Senate rankings. That the race remains so close suggests that neither candidate has succeeded yet in defining his opponent. Schaffer and the Republicans will attempt to portray Udall as too liberal for the state, while Udall and the Democrats are making the opposite case for Schaffer. Though he trails in this most recent poll, Udall has a slight advantage due to his 2-to-1 edge in cash on hand.KansasAlready facing an uphill challenge in...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-05 06:41:00 ColoradoSlowly, but surely Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) is increasing his financial advantage over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. Udall raised $1.1 million to end 2007, bringing his cash on hand total to $3.6 million. Schaffer raised $673,000 in the final quarter of the year, with $1.5 million available for the race. A $2 million deficit is not good news for Schaffer, who will likely appeal to national Republicans for support. With several endangered Republicans throughout the country, however, it's unclear how the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will respond. The group was out raised by its counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), by nearly $25 million last year.IdahoRepublican Lt. Governor Jim Risch (pictured), the favorite for the Republican nomination in a large field, raised $236,000 in the fourth quarter, with $171,000 available. Risch's total bests the $166,000 brought in by Democrat Larry LaRocco, ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-01-22 22:15:00 Our rankings are supersized this month, with blurbs about all 35 races across the country. Our top ten remains largely unchanged, with the open seat race in Mississippi joining the list for the first time. Mitch McConnell's race in Kentucky fell from the top ten after Democrats failed to get a top tier recruit to face the minority leader.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner (pictured) continues to have smooth sailing on his way to the Senate. His likely opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, has drawn a challenge from Bob Marshall, that further complicates his chances. Gilmore should survive in a party convention, but Warner has shown no signs of slowing. Most polling gives him a lead of 15-20 points, but the Old Dominion is very much a swing state, so Warner shouldn't get too comfortable. VERDICT: Likely Democratic takeover2. New Mexico (Open-R) [3]: While Representatives Steve Pearce (pictured) and Heather Wilson duke it out in the Republican pr...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-12-14 21:37:00 ColoradoA new poll gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a slight edge over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer (pictured) in Colorado. Udall leads Schaffer 39%-37%, with a quarter of voters undecided. Several other polls have also shown a tight rice, suggesting this could be one of the closest and potentially nasty (judging by some of the early bombs thrown on both sides) in the country next year. In our last Senate Rankings, the Colorado race came in as the fourth most likely to flip and was rated a pure toss-up.GeorgiaMore polling confirms that Republican Saxby Chambliss (pictured) is headed towards a fairly easy re-election next year. The poll shows Chambliss breaks 50% against four potential challengers and leads each by at least 30 points. That has to be disappointing for Democrats, who are eager to give Chambliss a fight after the bitter 2002 race in which he knocked off Democrat Max Cleland. In that race, Republican ads compared Cleland, a triple amputee Vietn...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-12-11 18:51:00 AlaskaA new poll suggests that Republican Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, would be defeated by potential Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Stevens trails 41%-47%. Begich, Anchorage mayor, has been recruited by national Democrats to challenge Stevens, who is facing the most difficult re-election effort of his career. Stevens (pictured) typically would garner little attention in this heavily Republican state, but an ongoing ethics investigation has left him vulnerable.ColoradoA new poll puts the Colorado Senate race in a virtual tie, with Republican Bob Schaffer edging Democrat Mark Udall (pictured) 42-41%. Several polls have confirmed that the race remains tight in this traditionally Republican state. Democrats have made inroads of late, however, picking up the governor's office and the other Senate seat during the past two cycles. The strategy here is clear: paint the other guy as too extreme (to the left or right) for Colorado. The candidate tha...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-12-04 17:57:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. Though Democrats were disappointed by Republican Thad Cochran's decision to seek re-election in Mississippi, it has turned out that they'll get a shot at an open seat there after all. Trent Lott's decision to resign before the end of his term means another seat for Republicans to defend. Tom Udall's decision to run in New Mexico also provided a boost for Democrats this month. As things stand today, Democrats seem almost certain to gain at least two seats, a number that could easily swell to half a dozen depending on how the cards fall.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Democrat Mark Warner (pictured) lost his first Senate try more than a decade ago--a surprisingly strong effort against now-retiring Republican John Warner. Since that time, however, Warner was elected governor, left office with high approval ratings that helped Democrats keep the seat in 2005, his party toppled Republican George Allen in 2006 and won...
By: Political Realm
CO-Sen: Bay Area drinks with Mark Udall
2007-11-26 20:31:00 Those of you in the Bay Area can get a chance to hang out with future Colorado Sen. Mark Udall this Thursday in San Francisco, at an event put together by the city’s great Drinking Liberally folks. Thursday, November 29 8:00 PM Swig (San Francisco, CA) 561 Geary Street San Francisco, CA 94102 If you will attend, ...
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-13 01:57:00 Polls, polls, and more polls--nearly every competitive 2008 Senate race was polled at least once last week, so today we will focus on those numbers and what they mean going forward.ColoradoPolling gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a 48%-41% lead over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer in the battle to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard. The poll also shows that Udall is better known by Colorado voters, with just over half familiar with Schaffer. These numbers should allow Colorado Democrats to breathe a little easier after an earlier poll showed the race neck and neck.KentuckyAnother poll shows that Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will face a serious re-election test in 2008. He leads potential rivals Greg Stumbo 48%-41% and Crit Luallen 49%-39%. McConnell has seen his approval rating fall as he has become the target of several Democratic groups tying him with President Bush and the Iraq War. Kentucky Democrats also had an impressive showin...
By: Political Realm
Mark Udall: Putting Our Safety At Risk
2007-11-10 12:52:00 YouTube The Irate Nation Link Why doesn’t Mark Udall want U.S. intelligence to have the tools they need to keep our nation safe? Call Mark Udall. (202)225-2161 Ask him... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
By: The Irate Nation
Mark Udall: Putting Our Safety At Risk
2007-11-10 12:52:00 YouTube The Irate Nation Link Why doesn’t Mark Udall want U.S. intelligence to have the tools they need to keep our nation safe? Call Mark Udall. (202)225-2161 Ask him... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
By: The Irate Nation
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-02 21:18:00 AlaskaAnchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father served in the House of Representatives, was in Washington, DC this week. Begich, widely seen as a potential challenger to Republican Senator Ted Stevens, was heavily courted by Senate Democrats, including Senators Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. Begich has yet to commit to the race and appears to be in no hurry to do so. Alaska, typically one of the most Republican states in the country, could elect Democrats to two of its three Congressional seats next year. Stevens and Congressman Don Young, both under federal investigation, appear vulnerable. A recent poll shows Young, who took over the House seat after the death of Begich's father in 1972, trailing Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz.MaineRepublican Senator Susan Collins out-raised Democratic Congressman Tom Allen during the third quarter, with Collins bringing in more than $1 million to Allen's $660,000. Collins also has a cash on hand advantage, holding $3.1 million in t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-11-01 20:14:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. The seat's previous ranking is listed in brackets. Democrats have had an up and down month, missing out on major opportunities in Nebraska and North Carolina, while picking up new prospects in New Mexico and Kentucky.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: The Virginia seat remains atop our rankings this month, even as Republicans avoided a potential bitter and divisive battle for their nomination. Congressman Tom Davis announced he would not seek the seat, though he had been seen for years as John Warner's preferred successor. Davis' decision, precluded by the party's choice to hold a convention over a primary, essentially gives the Republican nomination to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Though Gilmore has won statewide before, his more conservative views make him perhaps a less potent general election candidate to oppose Democrat...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-10-29 20:57:00 AlaskaRepublican incumbent Ted Stevens brought in $463,000 during the third quarter and has more than $1 million available for his re-election bid. That re-election remains in doubt, however, with Stevens under investigation by the FBI. That ethics controversy has led many to question whether the veteran lawmaker would seek another term. Stevens' fundraising, well ahead of his pace from the 2002 cycle, seems to suggest that he plans to be on the ballot next November. His presence could present an opening for Democrats, with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich a possible opponent.ColoradoDemocratic Congressman Mark Udall raised $1.1 million during the third quarter, compared to $800,000 for likely opponent Bob Schaffer. Udall has an impressive advantage in cash on hand, with $3.5 million in the bank. Schaffer has $1.2 million available. Both are seeking the seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard.GeorgiaRecent polling shows Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss has a very comforta...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-10-09 23:38:00 Colorado? Congressman Mark Udall raised more than $1 million during the last quarter and has more than $3 million available for his Senate bid.? The Colorado seat, being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard, is considered one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2008. A new poll, however, shows that the race is likely to be competitive--both Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer poll in the mid-30s, with over 20% undecided. We hold firm in our belief that Udall is the favorite, though the poll confirms that any suggestions that the race would be a runaway are premature. Idaho? Republican Lt. Governor Jim Risch, the man many believed would be appointed to replace Larry Craig, has announced his intentions to run for the seat in 2008. Despite failing in his attempt to reverse a guilty plea to a sex charge this summer, Craig noted that he will serve out the remainder of his term rather than resign as he had previously suggested.Minnesota? Al Franken narrowly out-raised Republi...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Opportunity Knocks
2007-10-05 06:51:00 New Mexico Republican Senator Pete Domenici announced his retirement today, ending speculation over his political future after being implicated in a Justice Department scandal earlier this year. The 75 year old veteran lawmaker becomes the fourth Republican to opt against re-election, joining Wayne Allard of Colorado, John Warner of Virginia, and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. As with those open seats, New Mexico is sure to become a prime target for Democrats looking to build on their narrow majority.Domenici suggested health concerns were the primary reason for his decision, revealing he has a form of dementia. The on-going Senate ethics investigation, however, certainly made Domenici's decision all the easier. It is alleged that Domenici called former US Attorney David Yglesias to pressure him about political sensitive indictments. Yglesias was later fired as part of a Justice Department purge that critics suggest was politically motivated. Weary of a potentially bruising re-ele...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-10-01 23:51:00 Welcome to our first rankings of the 2008 Senate contests around the country. These rankings will appear at the beginning of each month through November 2008. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. As you will notice, the landscape sets up rather nicely for Democrats looking to increase their small majority. Republicans have more seats to defend and (at least right now) fewer resources to help defend them. Democratic recruiting efforts have yielded strong results, while the jury is still out for Republicans. The bottom line is that Democrats have far more opportunities in 2008 and, while they won't pick up every seat they target, a gain of at least a few seems likely at this point.1. Virginia (Open-R): The retirement of John Warner dealt a devastating blow to Republicans. The seat that would have been easily defended had he opted for re-election has now become the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Popular former Governo...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Recruitment Troubles
2007-08-22 21:37:00 In a recent column over at The Fix, Chris Cillizza wrote:Recruiting is the main task of both parties in the year before an election. It's an arduous process that involves not only trying to find the best candidate and convince him or her to run, but also navigating tricky local political waters to make sure not too many toes are stepped on. A good recruiting program, it should go without saying, is crucial to making gains (or preventing losses) at the ballot box. Without a competent challenger who can make a strong case for change, even the weakest of incumbents has a fighting chance to be reelected.At this still-early point in the '08 cycle, it's hard to overlook the dearth of top-tier Republican candidates in potentially competitive Senate races. The best recruit on the board for Republicans at the moment is Bob Schaffer, a former congressman who is running for the Colorado Senate seat being vacated next year by Wayne Allard. The GOP cupboard is all-but-bare elsewhere. No serio...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: 1st Tier Races
2007-07-30 23:47:00 After picking up six seats in 2006, Democrats seized control of the Senate with a razor-thin majority. With Senator Joe Lieberman declaring himself an "Independent Democrat" and Senator Tim Johnson remains absent while recovering from brain surgery, Democrats have found it difficult to move their agenda forward. The 2008 Senate races have become all the more significant for Democrats, seeking to build a more workable majority, and for Republicans, hoping to take back control.In 2008, 34 seats will be up for grabs--22 Republican-held seats and 12 Democrat-held will face voters. Those numbers along with the current political environment--low approval for President Bush and increasing dissatisfaction over Iraq--create a landscape that will be challenging for Republicans. Democrats were able to defeat six Republican incumbents in 2006 and it seems likely that they could increase their majority in 2008.We have ranked the following contests as 1st tier races--meaning that we believe t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-07-18 20:07:00 Alabama? Republican Jeff Sessions appears to be on a smooth path to re-election. Sessions raised more than $1.5 million during the past three months and has around $3 million available. He has yet to receive an official challenger.Arkansas? Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor raised over $1 million in the second quarter and has brought in nearly $4 million this year for his re-election effort. Pryor defeated incumbent Republican Tim Hutchinson in 2002--a race in which the men combined to raise $9 million. Pryor's impressive fundraising this early in the cycle could deter possible challengers from entering the race.Colorado? Colorado Congressman Mark Udall raised more than $1 million in the second quarter and has nearly $2.5 million in the bank. Udall appears to have a clear path to the Democratic nomination for Senate.? Bob Schaffer, Udall's likely opponent, apparently has some Colorado Republicans worried that he may not be able to keep up with Udall's strong fundraising. Such sugge...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: How Blue Is Colorado?
2007-06-11 21:23:00 Following the January announcement that incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard would not seek re-election in 2008, the battle for his Colorado Senate seat is set to become perhaps the most competitive in the country. Allard is currently the only 2008 Senate incumbent to have announced retirement, providing Democrats with their best opportunity to pick up a seat. The race will likely test the strength of the recently resurgent Democratic Party in Colorado against the Republican history of the state.Both parties appear to have their nominees--Mark Udall for the Democrats and Bob Schaffer for the Republicans. Udall currently represents Colorado's liberal 2nd District, consisting of Boulder and some Denver suburbs, and was easily re-elected in 2006, with nearly 70% of the vote. He is part of a powerful political family that includes his father, former presidential candidate and Arizona Congressman Mo Udall, as well as cousins Tom Udall, a Democratic representative from New Mexico, a...
By: Political Realm
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