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Ad Wars: Oregon's Smith Seeks "Middle Ground"
2008-05-20 16:41:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV.Senate Watch: LouisianaThe NRSC is stretching a little bit in its latest attack, this time against Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu. Taking a page out of the 2004 presidential playbook, the web ad portrays Landrieu as a flip-flopper, citing several recent bills that Landrieu voted both for and against. Of course, it's a ridiculous charge given the nature of the Senate, but the NRSC is apparently hoping voters are stupid. The most egregious part of the video, however, is the effort to suggest Landrieu lacks leadership Louisiana voters deserve because she hasn't made an endorsement in the Democratic presidential primary. Seriously? No doubt the NRSC is disappointed that Landrieu hasn't endorsed Obama, so that they could attempt to tie her to his "bitter" comments (that ploy hasn't been so successful in recent House contests, just ask the NRCC). Senate Watch: OregonRepublican Gordon Smith is up with a new ad, "Middle Gro...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-04-13 00:42:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings--look for a fresh set of rankings next week. AlabamaThe latest polling continues to show Republican Senator Jeff Session (pictured) with a commanding lead in his bid for a third term. Sessions leads state Senator Vivian Figures 57%-36%. Three-fourths of the electorate hold a favorable view of the incumbent, while only 39% view Figures favorably. Figures, who isn't well known outside of her own district, doesn't appear to pose a serious threat to Sessions.AlaskaNew numbers out of Alaska confirm that Republican Senator Ted Stevens, in office since 1970, is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. Elected by landslide margins in every election since he assumed office, Stevens (pictured) holds a narrow 46%-45% lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In trouble largely because of a federal corruption investigation, Stevens earns support from just 71% ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-03-19 05:27:00 Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race befor...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-01-22 22:15:00 Our rankings are supersized this month, with blurbs about all 35 races across the country. Our top ten remains largely unchanged, with the open seat race in Mississippi joining the list for the first time. Mitch McConnell's race in Kentucky fell from the top ten after Democrats failed to get a top tier recruit to face the minority leader.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner (pictured) continues to have smooth sailing on his way to the Senate. His likely opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, has drawn a challenge from Bob Marshall, that further complicates his chances. Gilmore should survive in a party convention, but Warner has shown no signs of slowing. Most polling gives him a lead of 15-20 points, but the Old Dominion is very much a swing state, so Warner shouldn't get too comfortable. VERDICT: Likely Democratic takeover2. New Mexico (Open-R) [3]: While Representatives Steve Pearce (pictured) and Heather Wilson duke it out in the Republican pr...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-01-17 23:12:00 It's time to check in again on the Senate races that are developing around the country. We will be out with new Senate rankings tomorrow. IdahoFormer Congressman Larry LaRocco (pictured) has released his fundraising figures, bringing in $165,000 during the fourth quarter. The Democrat has $172,000 in the bank. LaRocco will likely face Republican Lt. Governor Jim Risch in the race to succeed scandal-plagued Larry Craig. For his part, Craig is continuing to give Idaho Republicans headaches. Craig recently penned an editorial claiming that he remains an effective senator for the state, despite many of his Senate colleagues avoiding him like the plague. Craig, who initially planned to resign last fall, has decided to remain in the body through the end of his term.KentuckyIraq veteran Andrew Horne will have more company in the Democratic primary this May. Businessman Greg Fischer (pictured) announced his candidacy this week via a video posted on his campaign site. Should he be w...
By: Political Realm
Quotabull
2008-01-10 21:49:00 Maybe I have liberated us to actually let women be human beings in public. … There was just a really wonderful moment there when, you know, people I think got a sense of why I do what I do. ? Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in a Jan. 9 interview with CNN. It’s my party, and I’ll cry if I want to Cry if I want to, cry if I want to You would cry too if it happened to you ? lyrics to “It’s My Party” sung by Leslie Gore, 1963. My own favorite theory is that this week, Hillary was a stand-in for every woman who?s overdosed on multitasking. They grabbed at the opportunity to have kids/go back to school/start a business/become a lawyer. But there are days when they can?t meet everybody?s needs and the men in their lives ? loved ones and otherwise ? make them feel like failures or towers of self-involvement. And the deal is that they can either suck it up or look like a baby. ? Gail Collins, op-ed columnist for The New York Times; Jan. ...
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-01-09 22:28:00 Due to the holiday break and the beginning of the primary season, we haven't touched on Senate campaign news for a while. So it's time to catch up.AlaskaRepublican Ted Stevens (pictured) earned a primary challenge this week in the midst of an ethics scandal that could drive the veteran lawmaker from office. Businessman David Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in 1996 and earned 27% of the vote, announced that he will again seek the Republican nomination. Since his appointment in 1968, Stevens has rarely faced a serious challenge, but this year he could be in trouble. Polling already shows him in a tight race against potential Democratic rival Mark Begich. Democrats, however, are likely hoping Stevens makes it through the primary. The scandal that surrounds him could propel them to a surprising win in this Republican state. KentuckyGreg Stumbo (pictured), once considered a likely challenger for Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has confirmed that he will instead seek his old se...
By: Political Realm
The Song Remains the Same
2008-01-09 05:28:00 But this time its a Dem accused of taking bribes in return for earmarks. Is this just the tip of the iceberg?From Citizensforethics.comCitizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) today sent a complaint to the Department of Justice, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District for Louisiana and the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas, asking for an investigation into whether Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) violated federal bribery law by including a $2 million earmark for Voyager Expanded Learning in a bill a mere four days after receiving $30,000 in campaign contributions from company executives and their relatives. CREW also asked the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate the matter.Call me cynical but part of me is just waiting for the Dem's to start showing the same degree of corruption we saw when the government was under GOP control. We need meaningful election/ campaign finance reform. However until that happens I'm going to continue backing publicly fi...
By: Dyre Portents
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-12-14 21:37:00 ColoradoA new poll gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a slight edge over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer (pictured) in Colorado. Udall leads Schaffer 39%-37%, with a quarter of voters undecided. Several other polls have also shown a tight rice, suggesting this could be one of the closest and potentially nasty (judging by some of the early bombs thrown on both sides) in the country next year. In our last Senate Rankings, the Colorado race came in as the fourth most likely to flip and was rated a pure toss-up.GeorgiaMore polling confirms that Republican Saxby Chambliss (pictured) is headed towards a fairly easy re-election next year. The poll shows Chambliss breaks 50% against four potential challengers and leads each by at least 30 points. That has to be disappointing for Democrats, who are eager to give Chambliss a fight after the bitter 2002 race in which he knocked off Democrat Max Cleland. In that race, Republican ads compared Cleland, a triple amputee Vietn...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-12-11 18:51:00 AlaskaA new poll suggests that Republican Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, would be defeated by potential Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Stevens trails 41%-47%. Begich, Anchorage mayor, has been recruited by national Democrats to challenge Stevens, who is facing the most difficult re-election effort of his career. Stevens (pictured) typically would garner little attention in this heavily Republican state, but an ongoing ethics investigation has left him vulnerable.ColoradoA new poll puts the Colorado Senate race in a virtual tie, with Republican Bob Schaffer edging Democrat Mark Udall (pictured) 42-41%. Several polls have confirmed that the race remains tight in this traditionally Republican state. Democrats have made inroads of late, however, picking up the governor's office and the other Senate seat during the past two cycles. The strategy here is clear: paint the other guy as too extreme (to the left or right) for Colorado. The candidate tha...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-12-04 17:57:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. Though Democrats were disappointed by Republican Thad Cochran's decision to seek re-election in Mississippi, it has turned out that they'll get a shot at an open seat there after all. Trent Lott's decision to resign before the end of his term means another seat for Republicans to defend. Tom Udall's decision to run in New Mexico also provided a boost for Democrats this month. As things stand today, Democrats seem almost certain to gain at least two seats, a number that could easily swell to half a dozen depending on how the cards fall.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Democrat Mark Warner (pictured) lost his first Senate try more than a decade ago--a surprisingly strong effort against now-retiring Republican John Warner. Since that time, however, Warner was elected governor, left office with high approval ratings that helped Democrats keep the seat in 2005, his party toppled Republican George Allen in 2006 and won...
By: Political Realm
Election 2007: Results Coming In
2007-11-07 06:01:00 The biggest prizes in the 2007 election season were the governor's offices in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Louisiana contest was settled weeks ago, with Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal avoiding a runoff to capture the seat for his party. Jindal's victory came as little surprise, with incumbent Kathleen Blanco so tarnished by Hurricane Katrina that she didn't seek re-election and Democrats failing to field a top tier challenger.The results in Mississippi and Kentucky have been just as apparent for months. Polling has shown Democrat Steve Beshear holding leads of 15-20 points over Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher. With 99.9% of the precincts reporting, Beshear has become the next governor of Kentucky, winning 59%-41%. In Mississippi, Republican Governor Haley Barbour, one of the few politicians to escape the Katrina situation with a stronger reputation, was never seriously challenged by conservative Democrat John Arthur Eaves in his bid for a second term. W...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-11-01 20:14:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. The seat's previous ranking is listed in brackets. Democrats have had an up and down month, missing out on major opportunities in Nebraska and North Carolina, while picking up new prospects in New Mexico and Kentucky.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: The Virginia seat remains atop our rankings this month, even as Republicans avoided a potential bitter and divisive battle for their nomination. Congressman Tom Davis announced he would not seek the seat, though he had been seen for years as John Warner's preferred successor. Davis' decision, precluded by the party's choice to hold a convention over a primary, essentially gives the Republican nomination to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Though Gilmore has won statewide before, his more conservative views make him perhaps a less potent general election candidate to oppose Democrat...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-10-01 23:51:00 Welcome to our first rankings of the 2008 Senate contests around the country. These rankings will appear at the beginning of each month through November 2008. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. As you will notice, the landscape sets up rather nicely for Democrats looking to increase their small majority. Republicans have more seats to defend and (at least right now) fewer resources to help defend them. Democratic recruiting efforts have yielded strong results, while the jury is still out for Republicans. The bottom line is that Democrats have far more opportunities in 2008 and, while they won't pick up every seat they target, a gain of at least a few seems likely at this point.1. Virginia (Open-R): The retirement of John Warner dealt a devastating blow to Republicans. The seat that would have been easily defended had he opted for re-election has now become the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Popular former Governo...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-08-30 22:43:00 Alabama? Incumbent Republican Jeff Sessions continues to lead in his race against state Senator Vivian Figures, 59%-37%. Sessions appears to be a safe bet for re-election to a third term.Idaho? Embattled Republican Larry Craig has been removed from his his committee assignments at the request of the GOP leadership seeking to distance the party from the scandal. Support from Craig in his home state and among Republicans is already collapsing, with several senators calling for him to resign.? Mitt Romney, whom Craig endorsed for president, continues to distance himself from the veteran lawmaker. Romney called Craig's actions "very disappointing" and compared the situation to the scandals that surrounded former President Clinton and former Congressman Mark Foley.Louisiana? State Treasurer John Kennedy announced earlier this week that he will switch parties and become a Republican before he seeks re-election to his current post this fall. Many are interpreting the party switch as a...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-08-24 19:44:00 Louisiana? Republicans are still searching for a candidate to challenge vulnerable Democrat Mary Landrieu. The incumbent has twice won extremely narrow victories, but the demographics in the state continue to trend Republican, perhaps expedited by the population displacement following Hurricane Katrina.? John Kennedy, the current state treasurer and a Democrat, is being recruited to challenge Landrieu. He recently announced that he would seek re-election to his current post in 2007, send mixed signals about his future plans. Kennedy ran as a Democrat for the Senate in 2004, but lost to David Vitter, the first Republican senator from the state since Reconstruction and who was recently involved in a sex scandal. Minnesota? CQ Politics writes that Al Franken is working hard to prove himself as a serious candidate in the race to challenge Republican Senator Norm Coleman. Franken has proven himself a strong fundraiser already and is airing web ads attacking Norm Coleman's associati...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Recruitment Troubles
2007-08-22 21:37:00 In a recent column over at The Fix, Chris Cillizza wrote:Recruiting is the main task of both parties in the year before an election. It's an arduous process that involves not only trying to find the best candidate and convince him or her to run, but also navigating tricky local political waters to make sure not too many toes are stepped on. A good recruiting program, it should go without saying, is crucial to making gains (or preventing losses) at the ballot box. Without a competent challenger who can make a strong case for change, even the weakest of incumbents has a fighting chance to be reelected.At this still-early point in the '08 cycle, it's hard to overlook the dearth of top-tier Republican candidates in potentially competitive Senate races. The best recruit on the board for Republicans at the moment is Bob Schaffer, a former congressman who is running for the Colorado Senate seat being vacated next year by Wayne Allard. The GOP cupboard is all-but-bare elsewhere. No serio...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: 1st Tier Races
2007-07-30 23:47:00 After picking up six seats in 2006, Democrats seized control of the Senate with a razor-thin majority. With Senator Joe Lieberman declaring himself an "Independent Democrat" and Senator Tim Johnson remains absent while recovering from brain surgery, Democrats have found it difficult to move their agenda forward. The 2008 Senate races have become all the more significant for Democrats, seeking to build a more workable majority, and for Republicans, hoping to take back control.In 2008, 34 seats will be up for grabs--22 Republican-held seats and 12 Democrat-held will face voters. Those numbers along with the current political environment--low approval for President Bush and increasing dissatisfaction over Iraq--create a landscape that will be challenging for Republicans. Democrats were able to defeat six Republican incumbents in 2006 and it seems likely that they could increase their majority in 2008.We have ranked the following contests as 1st tier races--meaning that we believe t...
By: Political Realm
Mary Landrieu (D) - Incumbent Senator Louisiana
2007-04-16 22:48:00 First Elected: 1996 2002 Result: 52% to 48% over Suzanne Haik Terrell 2004 Presidential Result: Bush 57% Kerry 42% Possible Challengers: U.S. Rep Richard Backer, Suzanne Haik Terrell, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne Front Page: Landrieu is definitely going to be challenged and challenged hard. The GOP will see this as a big opportunity and I am sure that some will be disappointed if this is not a pick up. The main reason for the optimism from the GOP is that Landrieu had a tough challenge in 2002 and many feel that Katrina forced many Democratic voters to relocate to other areas of the country. It is unlikely that many will return. Also, Landrieu's approval rating is 12 points lower than Republican Senator David Vitter, albeit a relatively solid 54%. Landrieu is one of those moderate Democrats who has not been particularly quick to move to the left even as the mood changes. She was part of the infamous gang of 14 that prevented the filibusters of our Supreme Court nominees, but w...
By: Coldheartedtruth
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