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Ad Wars: Looking Down The Ballot
2008-05-14 19:31:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV. We now have 360 videos in our archives, with more than 50 subscribers!Gubernatorial Watch: MissouriHouse Republican Kenny Hulshof launched his first ad today with the release of "Blessed." It is generally an introductory spot in which Hulshof talks about his upbringing and values. Hulshof faces off against Treasurer Sarah Steelman for the right to face Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon in November. The primary is August 5th.Senate Watch: ColoradoDemocratic Congressman Mark Udall has hit the airwaves with the release of his first ad, "Stand." In the ad, Udall talks energy, seeking independence from foreign oil and the development of green jobs.Senate Watch: MinnesotaThe American Future Fund, which has already run ads this cycle supporting Republican Norm Coleman, is up with a new web ad, "Laugh Track," that attacks Democrat Al Franken. The spot hits Franken for supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants and failing to p...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Clinton Hits Obama On Energy
2008-04-16 16:24:00 Check out our video library at Political Realm TV.Hillary ClintonJust a day after attacking Obama's "bitter" remarks in a Pennsylvania ad, the Clinton campaign is on the offensive again, this time attacking Obama on energy. "Pocket" echoes a radio ad that has been running in the state for a while. The ad challenges an earlier Obama ad in which he claimed not to take money from the oil companies. The ad points out that while he doesn't accept money from the oil companies, that would be against the law, he has accepted thousands from oil employees (something Clinton has done as well). It also attacks Obama for voting in favor of the Bush Administration's energy bill.John McCainFriends of the Earth Action, an environmental group, is running a new ad, "Trillions More," which attacks John McCain. The ad accuses McCain of sending pork barrel money to corporate polluters. Barack ObamaThe Obama campaign has produced a new web ad, "Guide," which looks at the influence of lobbyists in...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-04-13 00:42:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings--look for a fresh set of rankings next week. AlabamaThe latest polling continues to show Republican Senator Jeff Session (pictured) with a commanding lead in his bid for a third term. Sessions leads state Senator Vivian Figures 57%-36%. Three-fourths of the electorate hold a favorable view of the incumbent, while only 39% view Figures favorably. Figures, who isn't well known outside of her own district, doesn't appear to pose a serious threat to Sessions.AlaskaNew numbers out of Alaska confirm that Republican Senator Ted Stevens, in office since 1970, is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. Elected by landslide margins in every election since he assumed office, Stevens (pictured) holds a narrow 46%-45% lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In trouble largely because of a federal corruption investigation, Stevens earns support from just 71% ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-03-29 07:00:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings.AlaskaHow much does Republican Congressman Don Young's political trouble reflect on Ted Stevens' chances for re-election in 2008? Young (pictured), often referred to as the state's third senator because he's been in office since 1973, is in the fight of his political life after becoming embroiled in the same bribery scandal that threatens Stevens. Several polls have shown Young, the state's lone representative, trailing his Democratic challengers and he recently drew a primary challenge from Lt. Governor Sean Parnell. Parnell's candidacy will test the clout of recently elected Republican Governor Sarah Palin, who ousted unpopular Frank Murkowski in a 2006 primary showdown. Republicans have dominated elections in Alaska and the party would probably stand a better chance without Young and Stevens on the ballot in 2008.So far, Stevens has drawn two primary ch...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: It's 3AM In Louisiana
2008-03-19 15:51:00 Check out our video library at Political Realm TV.John McCainThe Democratic Party has released a new ad, "Lockstep," that ties McCain to President Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and the war in Iraq. Barack ObamaObama delivered a speech in Philadelphia yesterday touching on the Jeremiah Wright controversy, but focuses on race in our society.Here is Obama's official statement on the Jeremiah Wright controversy:The Obama campaign has also released two new radio ads in Pennsylvania. The first ad appeals to young voters and urges them to register to participate in the state's primary (voters must register as Democrats by March 24). The second ad appeals more to independent voters and attacks the politics as usual in Washington, while again urging voters to register as Democrats to participate in the Pennsylvania primary.Gubernatorial Watch: North CarolinaLt. Governor Bev Perdue, locked in a tight Democratic primary with Richard Moore, has released this new ad, "Bev's Rhyme," wh...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-03-19 05:27:00 Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race befor...
By: Political Realm
Al Franken vs. Norm Coleman
2008-03-11 02:15:00 Anti-Strib is reporting that Mike Cerisi announced in an email today that he is out of the Minnesota Senate Race. It’s now a race between Al Franken and Norm Coleman. Now since Al Franken is the presumptive nominee, lets go over his key issues. These are his stances listed on his website (The spin has been removed ...
By: Tundra Politics
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-03-01 00:27:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country.AlaskaRepublican Ted Stevens (pictured), the 84 year old veteran lawmaker, officially filed for re-election last week. The move puts to rest any speculation that Stevens would step aside in light of an active FBI investigation into his ties to an oil contractor. Ordinarily elected by landslide margins, Stevens faces danger from Democrats and from within his own party in 2008. Jerry Heikes and David Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in 1996, are already in the race. Should Republicans feel Stevens' presence on the ballot endangers their chances to keep the seat, pressure could be increased for him to retire or more prominent challengers could emerge. In 2006, unpopular Republican Governor Frank Murkowski finished third to now-Governor Sarah Palin in the primary. Of course, Murkowski doesn't have the same clout that Stevens carries within the state--he's been in office since 1968, routinely brings pork spe...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Focus Turns To Ohio, Texas
2008-02-22 06:04:00 Hillary ClintonThe Clinton campaign has released this new ad featuring Henry Cisneros, H.U.D secretary during part of Bill Clinton's administration and a former mayor of San Antonio. The ad isn't flashy, but Cisneros is pushing hard for the Latino vote. This ad is running in both English and Spanish.Clinton supporters have formed a new 527 group, American Leadership Project, to boost her prospects going forward. The group has released its first ad, "Blueprint," in Ohio. The ad takes a shot at Barack Obama, suggesting that speeches aren't enough, focusing largely on Clinton's economic plan.Barack ObamaThe Obama campaign is airing this new Spanish language ad, "Como Padre," in Texas. The ad focuses on domestic policy, touching on health care and education.DSCCThe Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has released this new web video, "Swear," attacking John McCain and tying him to President Bush and the Iraq War. The ad also seeks to tie Bush and the war to several potenti...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-19 00:18:00 ColoradoPolls continue to show an extremely tight open seat race in Colorado between Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) and former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. The latest numbers show Schaffer with a 44%-43% lead--the very narrow margin is a growing trend in this contest. Though the race was initially pegged a likely Democratic pickup by most observers given the recent evidence (Democrats have picked up a House and Senate seat in recent years, adding the governor's office in 2006), we've rated the race a toss-up in our latest Senate rankings. That the race remains so close suggests that neither candidate has succeeded yet in defining his opponent. Schaffer and the Republicans will attempt to portray Udall as too liberal for the state, while Udall and the Democrats are making the opposite case for Schaffer. Though he trails in this most recent poll, Udall has a slight advantage due to his 2-to-1 edge in cash on hand.KansasAlready facing an uphill challenge in...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-05 06:41:00 ColoradoSlowly, but surely Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) is increasing his financial advantage over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. Udall raised $1.1 million to end 2007, bringing his cash on hand total to $3.6 million. Schaffer raised $673,000 in the final quarter of the year, with $1.5 million available for the race. A $2 million deficit is not good news for Schaffer, who will likely appeal to national Republicans for support. With several endangered Republicans throughout the country, however, it's unclear how the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will respond. The group was out raised by its counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), by nearly $25 million last year.IdahoRepublican Lt. Governor Jim Risch (pictured), the favorite for the Republican nomination in a large field, raised $236,000 in the fourth quarter, with $171,000 available. Risch's total bests the $166,000 brought in by Democrat Larry LaRocco, ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-01-22 22:15:00 Our rankings are supersized this month, with blurbs about all 35 races across the country. Our top ten remains largely unchanged, with the open seat race in Mississippi joining the list for the first time. Mitch McConnell's race in Kentucky fell from the top ten after Democrats failed to get a top tier recruit to face the minority leader.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner (pictured) continues to have smooth sailing on his way to the Senate. His likely opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, has drawn a challenge from Bob Marshall, that further complicates his chances. Gilmore should survive in a party convention, but Warner has shown no signs of slowing. Most polling gives him a lead of 15-20 points, but the Old Dominion is very much a swing state, so Warner shouldn't get too comfortable. VERDICT: Likely Democratic takeover2. New Mexico (Open-R) [3]: While Representatives Steve Pearce (pictured) and Heather Wilson duke it out in the Republican pr...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Giuliani And 9/11
2008-01-21 18:44:00 Hillary ClintonThe Clinton campaign has released a new radio ad in South Carolina featuring Magic Johnson. Johnson seemingly equates Barack Obama to an NBA rookie, suggesting Clinton has more experience, making her the better choice to lead.Rudy GiulianiThe Giuliani campaign has produced two new ads to begin airing in Florida. The first, "It Matters," discusses Giuliani's leadership on a variety of issues. The spot even includes images from the September 11 attacks on New York City, with the line, "When the world wavered and history hesitated, he never did. Rudy Giuliani: Leadership when it matters most."The second ad, "Un Plan," targets Spanish speaking voters in Florida and focuses on Giuliani's tax cut plan.Mike HuckabeeLeading up to Saturday's primary, the group Americans for the Preservation of American Culture was running ads in South Carolina favoring Mike Huckabee. The ads focus on the Confederate Flag, attacking Mitt Romney and John McCain for opposing its use in t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-01-17 23:12:00 It's time to check in again on the Senate races that are developing around the country. We will be out with new Senate rankings tomorrow. IdahoFormer Congressman Larry LaRocco (pictured) has released his fundraising figures, bringing in $165,000 during the fourth quarter. The Democrat has $172,000 in the bank. LaRocco will likely face Republican Lt. Governor Jim Risch in the race to succeed scandal-plagued Larry Craig. For his part, Craig is continuing to give Idaho Republicans headaches. Craig recently penned an editorial claiming that he remains an effective senator for the state, despite many of his Senate colleagues avoiding him like the plague. Craig, who initially planned to resign last fall, has decided to remain in the body through the end of his term.KentuckyIraq veteran Andrew Horne will have more company in the Democratic primary this May. Businessman Greg Fischer (pictured) announced his candidacy this week via a video posted on his campaign site. Should he be w...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Giuliani's "Super Bowl"
2008-01-10 21:16:00 Rudy GiulianiThe Giuliani is airing a new ad, "Super Bowl," in Florida. The message of the ad? Ignore the results thus far. Giuliani is trying to convince voters that momentum heading into the Sunshine State doesn't matter. Of course, after Giuliani finished sixth in Iowa and barely edged out Ron Paul for fourth in New Hampshire, forgetting the early results is exactly what he wants everyone to do. Michigan PrimaryHonoring a pledge to campaign only in the original early voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina), Barack Obama and John Edwards will not appear on the ballot in Michigan. Hillary Clinton will be the only major candidate on the ballot for state Democrats, so some have started a campaign urging non-Clinton supporters to vote "uncommitted" in next week's primary. A ruling by the Democratic National Committee has stripped the state of all its delegates, making any victory there essentially useless. Mitt RomneyThe Romney campaign is airing a new ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-01-09 22:28:00 Due to the holiday break and the beginning of the primary season, we haven't touched on Senate campaign news for a while. So it's time to catch up.AlaskaRepublican Ted Stevens (pictured) earned a primary challenge this week in the midst of an ethics scandal that could drive the veteran lawmaker from office. Businessman David Cuddy, who challenged Stevens in 1996 and earned 27% of the vote, announced that he will again seek the Republican nomination. Since his appointment in 1968, Stevens has rarely faced a serious challenge, but this year he could be in trouble. Polling already shows him in a tight race against potential Democratic rival Mark Begich. Democrats, however, are likely hoping Stevens makes it through the primary. The scandal that surrounds him could propel them to a surprising win in this Republican state. KentuckyGreg Stumbo (pictured), once considered a likely challenger for Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell has confirmed that he will instead seek his old se...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-12-04 17:57:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. Though Democrats were disappointed by Republican Thad Cochran's decision to seek re-election in Mississippi, it has turned out that they'll get a shot at an open seat there after all. Trent Lott's decision to resign before the end of his term means another seat for Republicans to defend. Tom Udall's decision to run in New Mexico also provided a boost for Democrats this month. As things stand today, Democrats seem almost certain to gain at least two seats, a number that could easily swell to half a dozen depending on how the cards fall.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Democrat Mark Warner (pictured) lost his first Senate try more than a decade ago--a surprisingly strong effort against now-retiring Republican John Warner. Since that time, however, Warner was elected governor, left office with high approval ratings that helped Democrats keep the seat in 2005, his party toppled Republican George Allen in 2006 and won...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-13 01:57:00 Polls, polls, and more polls--nearly every competitive 2008 Senate race was polled at least once last week, so today we will focus on those numbers and what they mean going forward.ColoradoPolling gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a 48%-41% lead over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer in the battle to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard. The poll also shows that Udall is better known by Colorado voters, with just over half familiar with Schaffer. These numbers should allow Colorado Democrats to breathe a little easier after an earlier poll showed the race neck and neck.KentuckyAnother poll shows that Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will face a serious re-election test in 2008. He leads potential rivals Greg Stumbo 48%-41% and Crit Luallen 49%-39%. McConnell has seen his approval rating fall as he has become the target of several Democratic groups tying him with President Bush and the Iraq War. Kentucky Democrats also had an impressive showin...
By: Political Realm
Weekend Notes
2007-11-03 16:11:00 White House Or BustColorado Republican Tom Tancredo confirmed this week that he will not seek another term in Congress. Tancredo, currently running back in the Republican presidential pack, held off the announcement until after the Colorado Rockies ended their run in baseball's postseason. "It's the fact that I really believe I have done all I can do in the House, especially about the issue about which I care greatly," Tancredo told reporters, referring to his work on the issue of immigration. Tancredo has used the issue to rise to prominence.Colbert Bid HaltedSteven Colbert's presidential bid apparently came to a crashing halt this week when South Carolina Democrats announced they would not place his name on their primary ballot. The state party's executive board voted 13-3 to leave Colbert off the ballot, suggesting he did not meet their criteria for inclusion. Colbert did not pursue a place on the Republican primary ballot due to the high cost.Colbert's reaction to the d...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-11-01 20:14:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. The seat's previous ranking is listed in brackets. Democrats have had an up and down month, missing out on major opportunities in Nebraska and North Carolina, while picking up new prospects in New Mexico and Kentucky.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: The Virginia seat remains atop our rankings this month, even as Republicans avoided a potential bitter and divisive battle for their nomination. Congressman Tom Davis announced he would not seek the seat, though he had been seen for years as John Warner's preferred successor. Davis' decision, precluded by the party's choice to hold a convention over a primary, essentially gives the Republican nomination to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Though Gilmore has won statewide before, his more conservative views make him perhaps a less potent general election candidate to oppose Democrat...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Halloween Politics
2007-11-01 05:13:00 CongressThe Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new web ad that goes after six potentially vulnerable Republican senators. The ad asks supporters which Republican senator facing re-election in 2008 is the scariest--Mitch McConnell, Norm Coleman, Jame Inhofe, John Sununu, Susan Collins, or Gordon Smith?The National Republican Congressional Committee has it's own new web ad attacking the tax plan proposed by Democrat Charlie Rangel in the House. The ad warns of the "mother of all tax hikes."John McCainThe McCain campaign has another new ad in New Hampshire. In "Guts," McCain suggests he is the only candidate, Democrat or Republican, who can limit spending and eliminate corruption.
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-10-09 23:38:00 Colorado? Congressman Mark Udall raised more than $1 million during the last quarter and has more than $3 million available for his Senate bid.? The Colorado seat, being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard, is considered one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2008. A new poll, however, shows that the race is likely to be competitive--both Udall and Republican Bob Schaffer poll in the mid-30s, with over 20% undecided. We hold firm in our belief that Udall is the favorite, though the poll confirms that any suggestions that the race would be a runaway are premature. Idaho? Republican Lt. Governor Jim Risch, the man many believed would be appointed to replace Larry Craig, has announced his intentions to run for the seat in 2008. Despite failing in his attempt to reverse a guilty plea to a sex charge this summer, Craig noted that he will serve out the remainder of his term rather than resign as he had previously suggested.Minnesota? Al Franken narrowly out-raised Republi...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-10-01 23:51:00 Welcome to our first rankings of the 2008 Senate contests around the country. These rankings will appear at the beginning of each month through November 2008. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. As you will notice, the landscape sets up rather nicely for Democrats looking to increase their small majority. Republicans have more seats to defend and (at least right now) fewer resources to help defend them. Democratic recruiting efforts have yielded strong results, while the jury is still out for Republicans. The bottom line is that Democrats have far more opportunities in 2008 and, while they won't pick up every seat they target, a gain of at least a few seems likely at this point.1. Virginia (Open-R): The retirement of John Warner dealt a devastating blow to Republicans. The seat that would have been easily defended had he opted for re-election has now become the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Popular former Governo...
By: Political Realm
Newspaper Refunds Ad Money to Franken
2007-09-27 04:40:00 MoveOn.org has proven to be a headache for newspapers. On Sunday, The New York Times said it erred in giving the liberal anti-war group a $77,508 price break on a full-page advertisement attacking Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq. Now the Star Tribune, a Minneapolis newspaper, is refunding about $12,000 to Al Franken, ...
By: The Hot Joints
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-09-14 18:58:00 Minnesota? Polling shows Republican incumbent Norm Coleman continues to hold a narrow lead over his two Democratic challengers, Al Franken and Mike Ciresi. Coleman leads Franken 46%-41% and his lead over Ciresi is 46%-42%. Coleman's is viewed favorably by 54% of the population, up slightly from last month. Both challengers have made significant gains on Coleman compared to surveys earlier this year that showed Coleman with a comfortable lead. Ciresi has had to overcome low name recognition, while Franken is seeking to prove he is a serious candidate, despite his background in entertainment. Both have seen their favorable numbers rise as well.Nebraska? Chuck Hagel confirmed Monday what had been widely rumored over the weekend--he would not seek a third term in the Senate. Hagel also will not seek the presidency in 2008. Republicans chances to hold the seat remain strong, though it presents a further challenge to Senate Republicans having to defend another seat once thought sa...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-08-24 19:44:00 Louisiana? Republicans are still searching for a candidate to challenge vulnerable Democrat Mary Landrieu. The incumbent has twice won extremely narrow victories, but the demographics in the state continue to trend Republican, perhaps expedited by the population displacement following Hurricane Katrina.? John Kennedy, the current state treasurer and a Democrat, is being recruited to challenge Landrieu. He recently announced that he would seek re-election to his current post in 2007, send mixed signals about his future plans. Kennedy ran as a Democrat for the Senate in 2004, but lost to David Vitter, the first Republican senator from the state since Reconstruction and who was recently involved in a sex scandal. Minnesota? CQ Politics writes that Al Franken is working hard to prove himself as a serious candidate in the race to challenge Republican Senator Norm Coleman. Franken has proven himself a strong fundraiser already and is airing web ads attacking Norm Coleman's associati...
By: Political Realm
Ad Wars: Interest Groups Hit The Airways
2007-08-23 22:02:00 EnvironmentThe League of Conservation Voters is running two new ads challenging presidential candidates on both sides to become the first green president.Al FrankenAl Franken, seeking the Democratic nomination, is running a new web ad attacking Minnesota's Republican Senator Norm Coleman for his association with President Bush and special interest groups. Bush was in Minnesota this week for a closed-door fundraising for Coleman.Health CareThe California Nurses Association is also running ads in Iowa challenging Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama to support a single-payer health care plan.Mitt RomneyThe Romney campaign is running a new radio ad in Iowa discussing immigration and taking an indirect swipe at Rudy Giuliani's immigration stance as mayor of New York City.Senate DemocratsThe DSCC is asking users to provide suggesting for a 2008 bumper sticker slogan.
By: Political Realm
Ad Watch: Biden Hits The Airways
2007-08-20 20:48:00 Sam BrownbackBrownback's campaign has put together a compilation video of his travels across the Hawkeye State.Joe BidenThe Biden campaign is the latest to hit the airways in Iowa. His first spot is something of a biography, while the second discusses his experience in Iraq.Dick Cheney This clip of an interview with Dick Cheney in 1994 has been getting a lot of attention across the web this week. In it, Cheney suggests that invading Iraq would not be worth the trouble for the US, leaving the country in something of a quagmire. Gosh, that scenario sounds familiar. CongressA group defending American action in Iraq, Vets For Freedom, has begun airing ads supporting the Iraq War across the country. The first spot asks Republican Senator John Warner of Virginia not to surrender, while the second video is targeted at Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman. Both face re-election in 2008. Those ads are being produced in response to anti-war ads targeting certain Republicans in...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-08-01 21:46:00 Alaska? Federal agents raided the home of Republican Senator Ted Stevens on Monday. Stevens, the longest serving Republican in Senate history and a candidate for re-election in 2008, is being investigated for his ties to Bill Allen, a wealthy oil contractor. Allen, who's already admitted to bribing Alaskan government officials, oversaw a renovation project on Stevens' home.? Because the Alaska Democratic Party is in such weak state, it's difficult to believe they will be able to take advantage of the situation. Stevens may opt against a re-election bid, but the seat would likely remain in Republican hands.Kentucky? Attorney General Greg Stumbo has filed papers to challenge Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for the Senate. ? McConnell is considered somewhat vulnerable due to the national mood favoring Democrats and the low approval numbers for both President Bush and the Iraq War. Democrats are hoping for a repeat of 2004, when their Senate leader, Tom Daschle, was up...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: 1st Tier Races
2007-07-30 23:47:00 After picking up six seats in 2006, Democrats seized control of the Senate with a razor-thin majority. With Senator Joe Lieberman declaring himself an "Independent Democrat" and Senator Tim Johnson remains absent while recovering from brain surgery, Democrats have found it difficult to move their agenda forward. The 2008 Senate races have become all the more significant for Democrats, seeking to build a more workable majority, and for Republicans, hoping to take back control.In 2008, 34 seats will be up for grabs--22 Republican-held seats and 12 Democrat-held will face voters. Those numbers along with the current political environment--low approval for President Bush and increasing dissatisfaction over Iraq--create a landscape that will be challenging for Republicans. Democrats were able to defeat six Republican incumbents in 2006 and it seems likely that they could increase their majority in 2008.We have ranked the following contests as 1st tier races--meaning that we believe t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-07-10 06:36:00 Michigan? Democratic Senator Carl Levin may find himself facing a familiar opponent in 2008. Republican Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski, the former state representative that Levin easily beat in 2002, is considering another challenge. Minnesota ? Al Franken has reportedly raised $1.9 million in the second quarter, bringing his fundraising total to more than $3 million. Franken has $2 million in the bank. He is set to face Minneapolis lawyer Mike Ciresi, who raised $750,000 with $625,000 in the bank. Ciresi, like Franken, also has a significant amount of personal wealth to rely on for campaign support. Chris Cillizza notes, "The most important thing that Franken's fundraising does for him is that it sends a signal to the activist community that Franken is serious about this race and would be ready for Coleman if he winds up being the party's nominee. And it has the added bonus of reducing doubt in regular voters' minds about Franken's electability."? Republican incumbent Norm Coleman r...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-06-15 06:48:00 ? Bob Olson is the latest Democrat to join the race as a potential challenger to Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman. Olson is a bank owner, lawyer, and alternative energy activist who joins Al Franken and Mike Ciresi seeking the Democratic nomination. Coleman's seat is one of the top targets for Democrats in 2008. ? Coleman may find his path to the nomination not as easy as once thought. Retired Lt. Colonel Joe Repya, an advisor to Coleman's 2002 Senate campaign, is considering a challenge. Repya recently lost his race to become the chair of the Republican Party in Minnesota.? Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning is moving forward, as expected, with his Senate bid. Incumbent Republican Chuck Hagel has yet to announce his future plans, which include a possible presidential run, Senate re-election, or retirement. Bruning has been increasingly critical of his fellow Republican's outspoken nature regarding Iraq.? New Hampshire Senate hopeful Steve Marchand confirmed last week that...
By: Political Realm
Gonzales No Confidence Vote Unsuccessful
2007-06-12 09:32:00 Attorney General Alberto Gonzales leaving after a speech in Miami, Florida on June 11, 2007 at the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism conference. REUTERS/Carlos Barria Democrats in the Senate tried unsuccessfully on Monday June 11, 2007, to end debate on a resolution showing no confidence in Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and they were not able to vote on the resolution. The resolution was one line saying "that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales no longer holds the confidence of the Senate and of the American people." Democrats needed 60 votes to invoke cloture on the resolution so that they could end the Republican filibuster and bring it up for a vote on the floor but it fell 7 votes shy of the 60 they needed. A roll call vote netted 53 in favor of invoking cloture and 38 not in favor of cloture. There were 7 Republicans who broke with the administration and refused to support the attorney general who has been intensely criticized for his de...
Gonzales Avoids No Confidence Vote
2007-06-12 07:04:00 Senate Republicans were able to block an attempt by Democrats to hold a no-confidence vote on embattled Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. Democrats had hoped such a vote would force Gonzales to step down under public pressure, though any measure passed would have been non-binding. Since assuming control of Congress in January, Democrats have actively investigated Gonzales and the Justice Department on issues ranging from hiring practices to wire-tapping and secret prisons.Needing 60 votes to end debate and move forward with the no-confidence vote, the effort fell seven votes short, 53-38. All Democrats voted to move forward, along with seven Republicans--Susan Collins of Maine, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Gordon Smith of Oregon, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Olympia Snowe of Maine, and John Sununu of New Hampshire. Collins, Coleman, Smith, and Sununu all face strong challenges for re-election in 2008. Click here to see the full vote.Several Republicans sugg...
By: Political Realm
The Good And Bad
2007-06-08 22:46:00 How's the political stock market shaping up this week?Good? Mike Huckabee: The former Arkansas Governor has performed well in every GOP debate so far. It hasn't happened yet, but look for at least a slight bump from Huckabee in polling, perhaps up to the 7-9% range. It's a shame he had such a poor first quarter fundraising effort or he could back up his showing with advertisements or other voter outreach to maximize his bounce. In the least, he's definitely upped his vp profile.? Joe Biden: Biden again was strong (almost too much so) in the second Democratic debate. He was the only candidate to vote in favor of the Iraq funding bill and his explanation was forceful, yet reasonable. His Iraq plan seems to be a road the Democrats are willing to travel down, but he'll need to show that he's about more than just Iraq. Like Huckabee, Biden had a disappointing first quarter fundraising haul (probably due to his gaffe about Obama being the first articulate black candidate). His secon...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Minnesota
2007-05-30 06:55:00 The challenges for Norm Coleman's re-election effort are similar to those facing Susan Collins in Maine. Coleman is a Republican in a Democratic state with a strong liberal history--Minnesota has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976 (the longest active blue streak). He is also saddled with an unpopular outgoing president and the situation in Iraq, both of which Coleman has attempted to distance himself from. Minnesota DFLers (the state's version of the Democratic Party) will also make a strong push to reclaim the seat because it was once held by liberal icon Paul Wellstone.Coleman was elected the mayor of St. Paul as a Democrat, but switched to Republican Party in 1996. His bid for governor failed in 1998, with the surprising victory of former wrestler and actor Jesse Ventura. Coleman's 2002 Senate race against Wellstone grew very contentious before Wellstone's tragic death in a plane crash weeks before the election. Coleman had been running neck and neck w...
By: Political Realm
2008 Congressional Election Notes
2007-02-21 17:43:00 SENATE? New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici is reportedly running for a seventh term. The soon to be 75 year old was considered a strong retirement possibility, however, he told the Associated Press, "I'm running."Had Domenici elected to retire, Democrats would have made a very strong push to pick up the seat in an area that is increasingly competitive.Link: CQ Politics? It is now believed that Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) will seek another term after suffering a brain hemorrhage on December 13th. Johnson was reportedly transferred out of the hospital to a private rehabilitation facility. He has increased his workload in recent weeks, asking aides to bring the work to his hospital room.Johnson, who narrowly defeated now Senator John Thune in 2002, could face a strong challenge from Governor Mike Rounds in this red state. Should Johnson opt out of the race, the Democrats could field Rep. Stephanie Herseth, who represents the entire state. It hasn't been mentioned much, but Tom Daschle c...
By: Political Realm
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