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Risk Analysis Finds Nuclear Deterrence Wanting
2008-04-01 06:40:00 From the article, the annualized probability of a Cuban Missile Type Crisis (CMTC) resulting in World War III during the 50 years of the Cold War = Low Estimate: 2 in 10,000 = .02% = .0002 = [3/50][1/3][.1][.1] High Estimate: 5 in 1,000 = .5% = .005 = [3/50][1/3][.5][.5] [annualized probability that an initiating event (such as the Berlin crisis of 1961) would lead to a CMTC (3 chances in the past 50 years, by Hellman’s count)] x [conditional probability that the event becomes a CMTC (one event was the actual Cuban Missile Crisis, so that’s 1 in 3)]x [conditional probability that the CMTC leads to the use of a nuclear weapon]x [conditional probability that the use of a nuclear weapon leads to full-scale nuclear war] Probability of a Major Nuclear War = [3/50][1/3][x][y] x=y=10% to 50% => From Article Here’s the article: Leaving aside the former two scenarios, Hellman came up with a sort of equation for Armageddon: the annualized probability of a Cuban Missile Ty...
By: 1913 Intel
Obesity Increases Cancer Risk, Analysis Of Hundreds Of Studies Shows
2008-02-19 18:38:00 Researchers from the University of Manchester, Christie Hospital and University of Bern in Switzerland have today published findings in the Lancet medical journal which further support the link between obesity and risk of developing cancer.Following on from findings reported by the World Cancer Research fund last year, the study reveals that risk is increased not only in common cancers such as breast, bowel and kidney, but also in less common cancers such as blood cancers (myeloma and leukaemia) and melanoma (a form of skin cancer).Dr Andrew Renehan and colleagues from the University of Manchester and Christie Hospital, did a meta-analysis (a combined analysis of 221 previous studies), looking at over 250,000 cases of cancer, to determine the risk of cancer associated with a 5kg/m2 increase in body mass index (BMI).The researchers found in men, a 5kg/m2 increase in BMI raised the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 52%, thyroid cancer by 33%, and colon and kidney cancers each by ...
International Risk Analysis, China Style
2008-01-28 01:35:00 Brilliant post over at Paul Denlinger's China Vortex blog, entitled, "Risk is in the Eye of the Beholder," on how and why Chinese companies measure risk differently than do Western companies. I have often wondered about this, but without the business background even to know on what I was wondering. One of the things I have noticed and am forever complaining about is how American companies are so often late in going into emerging market countries. (I have intentionally shifted from talking about Western companies to talking about American companies because the overwhelming bulk of my own personal experiences in this area come from working with American companies.) The high margins American companies expect and their high labor costs are no doubt factors, but I also wonder if it is not just plain and simple risk aversion based on an unwillingness to risk jeopardizing that which has already been achieved. All I know is that I have worked with an untold number of companies over ...
By: China Law Blog
Valuation and Risk Analysis
2008-01-06 14:52:00 A Course in Credibility Theory and its Applications by Hans BhlmannDownloadThe Dark Side of Valuationby Aswath Damodaran DownloadMathematical Methods in Risk Theoryby Hans Bhlmann DownloadFundamentals of Risk Analysis and Risk Managementby Vlasta Molak DownloadRisk Analysis in Engineering and Economicsby Bilal M. Ayyub DownloadValuation Measuring and Managing the Value of Companiesby McKinsey & CompanyDownload
Conducting a risk analysis in networking
2007-12-02 08:16:00 A risk analysis should identify the risks to your network, network resources, and data. This doesn’t mean you should identify every possible entry point to the network, nor every possible means of attack. The intent of a risk analysis is to identify portions of your network, assign a threat rating to ...
Market Risk Analysis: Peak Oil and Investment Real Estate
2007-10-29 10:52:00 Synopsis & Recommendation Energy company officials have estimated that global oil production will start to decline in the near to mid term (“peak oil”), if it has not started already. Experts warn that there is a strict correlation between economic growth and oil supply. Properties currently in design and construction will probably be put in service at or near the time when peak oil is expected to occur. Real estate practitioners must incorporate a more thorough assessment of energy availability and pricing within their transaction underwriting as well as think about shifting their development focus to more resilient properties and investment scenarios. The (Latest) Download on Peak Oil Check out Biopact's very instructive report on the connection between peak oil and economic decline. Not only have energy company executives largely agreed upon peak oil occurring around 2010-2012, experts stress that the prolonged, permanent decline in global oil production can trigg...
SWOT and Risk Analysis
2007-03-09 19:05:00 Como profissional de segurança eu me considero um gestor de riscos, assim como qualquer profissional de segurança envolvido em qualquer fase da análise dos riscos e implementação de controles para mitigação. Eu vejo empresas, profissionais e estudantes sempre a busca de uma fórmula perfeita para análise de riscos, isso se deve há um mito que foi criado sobre tal tema. Sim, na minha humilde |
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