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Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-04-13 00:42:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings--look for a fresh set of rankings next week. AlabamaThe latest polling continues to show Republican Senator Jeff Session (pictured) with a commanding lead in his bid for a third term. Sessions leads state Senator Vivian Figures 57%-36%. Three-fourths of the electorate hold a favorable view of the incumbent, while only 39% view Figures favorably. Figures, who isn't well known outside of her own district, doesn't appear to pose a serious threat to Sessions.AlaskaNew numbers out of Alaska confirm that Republican Senator Ted Stevens, in office since 1970, is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. Elected by landslide margins in every election since he assumed office, Stevens (pictured) holds a narrow 46%-45% lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In trouble largely because of a federal corruption investigation, Stevens earns support from just 71% ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-03-19 05:27:00 Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race befor...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-05 06:41:00 ColoradoSlowly, but surely Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) is increasing his financial advantage over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. Udall raised $1.1 million to end 2007, bringing his cash on hand total to $3.6 million. Schaffer raised $673,000 in the final quarter of the year, with $1.5 million available for the race. A $2 million deficit is not good news for Schaffer, who will likely appeal to national Republicans for support. With several endangered Republicans throughout the country, however, it's unclear how the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will respond. The group was out raised by its counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), by nearly $25 million last year.IdahoRepublican Lt. Governor Jim Risch (pictured), the favorite for the Republican nomination in a large field, raised $236,000 in the fourth quarter, with $171,000 available. Risch's total bests the $166,000 brought in by Democrat Larry LaRocco, ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-01-22 22:15:00 Our rankings are supersized this month, with blurbs about all 35 races across the country. Our top ten remains largely unchanged, with the open seat race in Mississippi joining the list for the first time. Mitch McConnell's race in Kentucky fell from the top ten after Democrats failed to get a top tier recruit to face the minority leader.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner (pictured) continues to have smooth sailing on his way to the Senate. His likely opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, has drawn a challenge from Bob Marshall, that further complicates his chances. Gilmore should survive in a party convention, but Warner has shown no signs of slowing. Most polling gives him a lead of 15-20 points, but the Old Dominion is very much a swing state, so Warner shouldn't get too comfortable. VERDICT: Likely Democratic takeover2. New Mexico (Open-R) [3]: While Representatives Steve Pearce (pictured) and Heather Wilson duke it out in the Republican pr...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-12-04 17:57:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. Though Democrats were disappointed by Republican Thad Cochran's decision to seek re-election in Mississippi, it has turned out that they'll get a shot at an open seat there after all. Trent Lott's decision to resign before the end of his term means another seat for Republicans to defend. Tom Udall's decision to run in New Mexico also provided a boost for Democrats this month. As things stand today, Democrats seem almost certain to gain at least two seats, a number that could easily swell to half a dozen depending on how the cards fall.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Democrat Mark Warner (pictured) lost his first Senate try more than a decade ago--a surprisingly strong effort against now-retiring Republican John Warner. Since that time, however, Warner was elected governor, left office with high approval ratings that helped Democrats keep the seat in 2005, his party toppled Republican George Allen in 2006 and won...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-13 01:57:00 Polls, polls, and more polls--nearly every competitive 2008 Senate race was polled at least once last week, so today we will focus on those numbers and what they mean going forward.ColoradoPolling gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a 48%-41% lead over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer in the battle to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard. The poll also shows that Udall is better known by Colorado voters, with just over half familiar with Schaffer. These numbers should allow Colorado Democrats to breathe a little easier after an earlier poll showed the race neck and neck.KentuckyAnother poll shows that Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will face a serious re-election test in 2008. He leads potential rivals Greg Stumbo 48%-41% and Crit Luallen 49%-39%. McConnell has seen his approval rating fall as he has become the target of several Democratic groups tying him with President Bush and the Iraq War. Kentucky Democrats also had an impressive showin...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-02 21:18:00 AlaskaAnchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father served in the House of Representatives, was in Washington, DC this week. Begich, widely seen as a potential challenger to Republican Senator Ted Stevens, was heavily courted by Senate Democrats, including Senators Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer. Begich has yet to commit to the race and appears to be in no hurry to do so. Alaska, typically one of the most Republican states in the country, could elect Democrats to two of its three Congressional seats next year. Stevens and Congressman Don Young, both under federal investigation, appear vulnerable. A recent poll shows Young, who took over the House seat after the death of Begich's father in 1972, trailing Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz.MaineRepublican Senator Susan Collins out-raised Democratic Congressman Tom Allen during the third quarter, with Collins bringing in more than $1 million to Allen's $660,000. Collins also has a cash on hand advantage, holding $3.1 million in t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-11-01 20:14:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. The seat's previous ranking is listed in brackets. Democrats have had an up and down month, missing out on major opportunities in Nebraska and North Carolina, while picking up new prospects in New Mexico and Kentucky.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: The Virginia seat remains atop our rankings this month, even as Republicans avoided a potential bitter and divisive battle for their nomination. Congressman Tom Davis announced he would not seek the seat, though he had been seen for years as John Warner's preferred successor. Davis' decision, precluded by the party's choice to hold a convention over a primary, essentially gives the Republican nomination to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Though Gilmore has won statewide before, his more conservative views make him perhaps a less potent general election candidate to oppose Democrat...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-10-23 20:52:00 Maine? A new poll shows Republican incumbent Susan Collins begins her re-election battle with an impressive lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen. Collins leads Allen, 56%-33%. It has been clear for months that Allen would be Collins' likely opponent, so it should be a little disheartening for Maine Democrats to see him trailing so badly. Allen is hoping to make the race about Iraq and President Bush, while tying Collins to national Republicans. Collins, however, has built a moderate reputation and appears to be controlling the race's message thus far. Things have been fairly quiet in Maine thus far, but look for Allen to step up his attacks soon.Nebraska? The Nebraska race has also been fairly quiet, as Republicans prepare for a primary battle and Democrats wait on former Senator Bob Kerrey's decision. Kerrey suggested a decision would be announced "soon," but weeks have passed and little has been reported. Kerrey was in the news this week after noting that he would ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-10-01 23:51:00 Welcome to our first rankings of the 2008 Senate contests around the country. These rankings will appear at the beginning of each month through November 2008. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. As you will notice, the landscape sets up rather nicely for Democrats looking to increase their small majority. Republicans have more seats to defend and (at least right now) fewer resources to help defend them. Democratic recruiting efforts have yielded strong results, while the jury is still out for Republicans. The bottom line is that Democrats have far more opportunities in 2008 and, while they won't pick up every seat they target, a gain of at least a few seems likely at this point.1. Virginia (Open-R): The retirement of John Warner dealt a devastating blow to Republicans. The seat that would have been easily defended had he opted for re-election has now become the Democrats' best pickup opportunity. Popular former Governo...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Recruitment Troubles
2007-08-22 21:37:00 In a recent column over at The Fix, Chris Cillizza wrote:Recruiting is the main task of both parties in the year before an election. It's an arduous process that involves not only trying to find the best candidate and convince him or her to run, but also navigating tricky local political waters to make sure not too many toes are stepped on. A good recruiting program, it should go without saying, is crucial to making gains (or preventing losses) at the ballot box. Without a competent challenger who can make a strong case for change, even the weakest of incumbents has a fighting chance to be reelected.At this still-early point in the '08 cycle, it's hard to overlook the dearth of top-tier Republican candidates in potentially competitive Senate races. The best recruit on the board for Republicans at the moment is Bob Schaffer, a former congressman who is running for the Colorado Senate seat being vacated next year by Wayne Allard. The GOP cupboard is all-but-bare elsewhere. No serio...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: 1st Tier Races
2007-07-30 23:47:00 After picking up six seats in 2006, Democrats seized control of the Senate with a razor-thin majority. With Senator Joe Lieberman declaring himself an "Independent Democrat" and Senator Tim Johnson remains absent while recovering from brain surgery, Democrats have found it difficult to move their agenda forward. The 2008 Senate races have become all the more significant for Democrats, seeking to build a more workable majority, and for Republicans, hoping to take back control.In 2008, 34 seats will be up for grabs--22 Republican-held seats and 12 Democrat-held will face voters. Those numbers along with the current political environment--low approval for President Bush and increasing dissatisfaction over Iraq--create a landscape that will be challenging for Republicans. Democrats were able to defeat six Republican incumbents in 2006 and it seems likely that they could increase their majority in 2008.We have ranked the following contests as 1st tier races--meaning that we believe t...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-07-18 20:07:00 Alabama? Republican Jeff Sessions appears to be on a smooth path to re-election. Sessions raised more than $1.5 million during the past three months and has around $3 million available. He has yet to receive an official challenger.Arkansas? Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor raised over $1 million in the second quarter and has brought in nearly $4 million this year for his re-election effort. Pryor defeated incumbent Republican Tim Hutchinson in 2002--a race in which the men combined to raise $9 million. Pryor's impressive fundraising this early in the cycle could deter possible challengers from entering the race.Colorado? Colorado Congressman Mark Udall raised more than $1 million in the second quarter and has nearly $2.5 million in the bank. Udall appears to have a clear path to the Democratic nomination for Senate.? Bob Schaffer, Udall's likely opponent, apparently has some Colorado Republicans worried that he may not be able to keep up with Udall's strong fundraising. Such sugge...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Maine
2007-05-14 18:09:00 The field appears set for the 2008 Senate race in Maine that is likely to be one of the closer races in the country and a prime Democratic pickup opportunity. Congressman Tom Allen, the presumptive Democratic nominee, announced his candidacy on his campaign website last week. Susan Collins has already announced her intentions to seek a third term after previously stating that she would serve only two terms. Though Republicans currently hold both of the state's Senate seats, the Democrats control the two House districts, the governor's office, and the state legislature.As a Republican senator in a reliably blue state, Susan Collins is an obvious target for Democrats this cycle. After successfully ousting a number of Republican incumbents in swing or Democratic-leaning districts in 2006, the Democrats are looking to continue that momentum in 2008. Because the national political landscape still tilts in favor of the Democrats, Collins' re-election is far from certain. Allen, a six-t...
By: Political Realm
2008 Senate Primer
2007-02-05 22:34:00 Is it 2008 yet?Assuming a relatively neutral or slightly Democratic favorable political climate, Republicans could again be looking at another tough year in 2008 as far as the Senate is concerned for a variety of reasons. The most obvious being that the math is against them simply because of the number of Republicans seeking re-election. Republicans are defending 21 seats to the Democrats 12 in 2008. Also remember that the last time this group was up it was 2002--a year dominated by Republicans thanks in part to the events of September 11, 2001.Democrat Incumbents1. Max Baucus of Montana2. Joe Biden of Delaware3. Dick Durbin of Illinois4. Tom Harkin of Iowa5. Tim Johnson of South Dakota6. John Kerry of Massachusetts7. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana8. Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey9. Carl Levin of Michigan10. Mark Pryor of Arkansas11. Jack Reed of Rhode Island12. Jay Rockefeller of West VirginiaRepublican Incumbents1. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee2. Wayne Allard of Colorado3. Saxby Chambl...
By: Political Realm
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