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Ad Wars: New Mexico's Udall Launches New Ads
2008-05-22 04:26:00 Check out our entire video library at Political Realm TV.Senate Watch: New MexicoDemocrat Tom Udall, leading Republican House colleagues Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, has launched his first ads of the cycle. "What's Right" is a biographical spot that focuses on his family background and career accomplishments as a congressmen and as the state's attorney general.Udall, noting his father's service in World War II, talks about his support for the new GI Bill in a second new ad, "Same Opportunity."With the Republican primary less than two weeks away, Heather Wilson is hitting rival Steve Pearce in her latest ad, "Wrong For New Mexico." Wilson attacks Pearce for cutting social security benefits and hospital funding. Wilson, the more moderate candidate, also makes an electability claim in closing--"with that record, he can't win in November." Recent polling shows the primary race is a tossup and both sides (and outside groups) have shown a willingness to go negative that should ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News & Notes
2008-04-13 00:42:00 Let's take a look at the latest news from Senate races around the country. Click here for our latest Senate rankings--look for a fresh set of rankings next week. AlabamaThe latest polling continues to show Republican Senator Jeff Session (pictured) with a commanding lead in his bid for a third term. Sessions leads state Senator Vivian Figures 57%-36%. Three-fourths of the electorate hold a favorable view of the incumbent, while only 39% view Figures favorably. Figures, who isn't well known outside of her own district, doesn't appear to pose a serious threat to Sessions.AlaskaNew numbers out of Alaska confirm that Republican Senator Ted Stevens, in office since 1970, is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. Elected by landslide margins in every election since he assumed office, Stevens (pictured) holds a narrow 46%-45% lead over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. In trouble largely because of a federal corruption investigation, Stevens earns support from just 71% ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-03-19 05:27:00 Our latest rankings paint a rosy picture for Democrats, who find only one of their incumbents on our list of the ten seats most likely to flip hands in 2008. After picking up six seats and winning a thin 51-49 majority in 2006, they appear poised to expand their holdings, but fall short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat advantage.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: As a former business executive and governor, Mark Warner (pictured) simply doesn't come across as a legislative branch kind of guy. Widely considered a potential 2008 presidential candidate before he surprisingly put such speculation to rest in October 2006, Warner does little to scuttle the notion that he has ambitions that lie beyond the Senate. A term in the Senate, which seems all but assured at this point, could help fill out the foreign policy portion of his resume for a presidential run in 2012, 2016, or beyond. At this point in 2006, however, another former governor was also prepping for an apparently easy Senate race befor...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-19 00:18:00 ColoradoPolls continue to show an extremely tight open seat race in Colorado between Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) and former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. The latest numbers show Schaffer with a 44%-43% lead--the very narrow margin is a growing trend in this contest. Though the race was initially pegged a likely Democratic pickup by most observers given the recent evidence (Democrats have picked up a House and Senate seat in recent years, adding the governor's office in 2006), we've rated the race a toss-up in our latest Senate rankings. That the race remains so close suggests that neither candidate has succeeded yet in defining his opponent. Schaffer and the Republicans will attempt to portray Udall as too liberal for the state, while Udall and the Democrats are making the opposite case for Schaffer. Though he trails in this most recent poll, Udall has a slight advantage due to his 2-to-1 edge in cash on hand.KansasAlready facing an uphill challenge in...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2008-02-05 06:41:00 ColoradoSlowly, but surely Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (pictured) is increasing his financial advantage over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer. Udall raised $1.1 million to end 2007, bringing his cash on hand total to $3.6 million. Schaffer raised $673,000 in the final quarter of the year, with $1.5 million available for the race. A $2 million deficit is not good news for Schaffer, who will likely appeal to national Republicans for support. With several endangered Republicans throughout the country, however, it's unclear how the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will respond. The group was out raised by its counterpart, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), by nearly $25 million last year.IdahoRepublican Lt. Governor Jim Risch (pictured), the favorite for the Republican nomination in a large field, raised $236,000 in the fourth quarter, with $171,000 available. Risch's total bests the $166,000 brought in by Democrat Larry LaRocco, ...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2008-01-22 22:15:00 Our rankings are supersized this month, with blurbs about all 35 races across the country. Our top ten remains largely unchanged, with the open seat race in Mississippi joining the list for the first time. Mitch McConnell's race in Kentucky fell from the top ten after Democrats failed to get a top tier recruit to face the minority leader.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner (pictured) continues to have smooth sailing on his way to the Senate. His likely opponent, former Governor Jim Gilmore, has drawn a challenge from Bob Marshall, that further complicates his chances. Gilmore should survive in a party convention, but Warner has shown no signs of slowing. Most polling gives him a lead of 15-20 points, but the Old Dominion is very much a swing state, so Warner shouldn't get too comfortable. VERDICT: Likely Democratic takeover2. New Mexico (Open-R) [3]: While Representatives Steve Pearce (pictured) and Heather Wilson duke it out in the Republican pr...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-12-11 18:51:00 AlaskaA new poll suggests that Republican Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, would be defeated by potential Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Stevens trails 41%-47%. Begich, Anchorage mayor, has been recruited by national Democrats to challenge Stevens, who is facing the most difficult re-election effort of his career. Stevens (pictured) typically would garner little attention in this heavily Republican state, but an ongoing ethics investigation has left him vulnerable.ColoradoA new poll puts the Colorado Senate race in a virtual tie, with Republican Bob Schaffer edging Democrat Mark Udall (pictured) 42-41%. Several polls have confirmed that the race remains tight in this traditionally Republican state. Democrats have made inroads of late, however, picking up the governor's office and the other Senate seat during the past two cycles. The strategy here is clear: paint the other guy as too extreme (to the left or right) for Colorado. The candidate tha...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-12-04 17:57:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. Though Democrats were disappointed by Republican Thad Cochran's decision to seek re-election in Mississippi, it has turned out that they'll get a shot at an open seat there after all. Trent Lott's decision to resign before the end of his term means another seat for Republicans to defend. Tom Udall's decision to run in New Mexico also provided a boost for Democrats this month. As things stand today, Democrats seem almost certain to gain at least two seats, a number that could easily swell to half a dozen depending on how the cards fall.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: Democrat Mark Warner (pictured) lost his first Senate try more than a decade ago--a surprisingly strong effort against now-retiring Republican John Warner. Since that time, however, Warner was elected governor, left office with high approval ratings that helped Democrats keep the seat in 2005, his party toppled Republican George Allen in 2006 and won...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-20 18:30:00 AlabamaRepublican Jeff Sessions has a decisive lead over state Senator Vivian Figures, 62%-30%. The conservative Sessions appears well on his way to a third term.KentuckyMichael Cassaro, a Louisville-area doctor, became the first Democrat to officially challenge Republican Senator Mitch McConnell (pictured) this week. It's unlikely, however, that national Democrats will be satisfied with Cassaro, a political newcomer, as their candidate. Polling has showed McConnell is vulnerable and Democrats are pursuing state Auditor Crit Luallen and Attorney General Greg Stumbo among others. Stumbo, who has formed an exploratory committee, said he will make an official decision by mid-December. Stumbo even took at shot at potential rival Luallen, saying, ""I don't think you can take the oath of office for a four-year term one week and turn around and file for another office the next." Luallen was recently re-elected with 59% of the vote, while Stumbo did not pursue another term after bei...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: News And Notes
2007-11-13 01:57:00 Polls, polls, and more polls--nearly every competitive 2008 Senate race was polled at least once last week, so today we will focus on those numbers and what they mean going forward.ColoradoPolling gives Democratic Congressman Mark Udall a 48%-41% lead over former Republican Congressman Bob Schaffer in the battle to replace retiring Republican Senator Wayne Allard. The poll also shows that Udall is better known by Colorado voters, with just over half familiar with Schaffer. These numbers should allow Colorado Democrats to breathe a little easier after an earlier poll showed the race neck and neck.KentuckyAnother poll shows that Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will face a serious re-election test in 2008. He leads potential rivals Greg Stumbo 48%-41% and Crit Luallen 49%-39%. McConnell has seen his approval rating fall as he has become the target of several Democratic groups tying him with President Bush and the Iraq War. Kentucky Democrats also had an impressive showin...
By: Political Realm
Senate Watch: Rankings
2007-11-01 20:14:00 It's once again time to review our rankings of the 2008 Senate races. The top ranked seat is the one we believe most likely to flip control to the other party. The seat's previous ranking is listed in brackets. Democrats have had an up and down month, missing out on major opportunities in Nebraska and North Carolina, while picking up new prospects in New Mexico and Kentucky.1. Virginia (Open-R) [1]: The Virginia seat remains atop our rankings this month, even as Republicans avoided a potential bitter and divisive battle for their nomination. Congressman Tom Davis announced he would not seek the seat, though he had been seen for years as John Warner's preferred successor. Davis' decision, precluded by the party's choice to hold a convention over a primary, essentially gives the Republican nomination to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Though Gilmore has won statewide before, his more conservative views make him perhaps a less potent general election candidate to oppose Democrat...
By: Political Realm
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