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Will Black spoil the rainbow? UPDATE: Yes!
2007-05-23 23:02:00 Two key meetings tonight, both in Llandrindod. The Conservatives' management board are meeting in the 1930s Metropole Hotel - I'm told it's a shoo in. Meanwhile the Lib Dem National Executive is getting together in the Media Resource Centre. This is much more difficult to call. Even though they voted by 9-3 to suspend talks with Labour last week, a number of Lib Dem legends and Peter Black are thought to be against teaming up with Plaid and the Tories. Activists were out in numbers - thought to be at least 12 - to make their opposition known. "What do we want?""Constitutional reform and the introduction of a single transferable voting system in local government," they shouted."When do we want it?""After a majority vote in the national executive, a special conference in an unspecified location and even then not really," they cried.To be updated.UPDATE: The Lib Dems have voted to halt all talks. That means the end of the rainbow.Lib Dem leader (for the moment) Mike German said: "We...
The deal Plaid left behind
2007-05-23 10:49:00 More details are emerging of the deal Plaid turned down to concentrate solely on forming a rainbow coalition. It is thought Labour were offering a referendum on a Scottish-style parliament, a review of the Barnett formula AND a new Welsh Language Act (in some form). I also understand that at the time Plaid voted to sever talks with Labour, Rhodri Morgan's team were perusing the very same document on health reconfiguration which had been submitted to the Lib Dems and the Tories. Even though Labour had earlier rejected the idea of a moratorium on the reconfiguration programme, the four AMs who voted against suspending negotiations clearly thought there was still hope of reaching an agreement on this and other key issues.Nevertheless, the other Plaid AMs decided that talks were not progressing at a sufficient pace. And yet, had this offer been on the table on May 4th, surely they would have snapped it up?
101 ways to prop up a 'failed Labour administration'*
2007-05-05 13:53:00 Peter Black, newly re-elected Lib Dem AM for South Wales West, knows exactly what he is doing.Yesterday's blog post got the ball rolling. 'It is clear that we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think,' he wrote. For 'radical re-think' read 'leadership contest,' I responded. He had opportunities to deny this both on my blog and on Radio Wales. He chose not to do so.And today, he's at it again: 'My instincts are that the Welsh Liberal Democrats do not have to be the deal-makers in this process. We have our own issues to sort out first around where we are going as a party and what sort of image we project to the Welsh public.'It's now acknowledged that the leaders of Lib Dem councils are not keen on a Lab-Lib pact. Their long-term strategy is based on undermining Labour, not propping it up. In addition, one third of the Lib Dem assembly group have now spoken out against a Labour coalition. OK, so that only adds Eleanor Burnham to the mix (so far), but that's the Lib...
Winners and losers
2007-05-04 16:13:00 Bugger. You just knew it was going to happen, didn't you? After all that hype about it being the most closely fought election ever, it was inevitable that the result itself would conspire to be as clear as mud (mixed up with a bit of boot polish for good measure).Lib Dems: The big losers of the night. Sure, they consolidated in certain areas and have a few second-placed platforms to build on for next time. But for this strategy to work, it had to be accompanied by list gains. It wasn't. To win no additional seats has to be seen as a failure. South Wales West AM Peter Black has already written on his blog that "it is clear we now need a fresh approach and a radical re-think as to where we are going and how we sell ourselves, our policies and our philosophy to the Welsh electorate." Sounds to me like the prelude to a leadership contest. In which case, Brecon AM Kirsty Williams would surely be favourite. Crucially, a change of hands at the top would make a Lab-Lib coalition easier to...
Election 2007 in words and numbers
2007-05-04 09:52:00 Scottish people seem to have got terribly confused between numbers and letters. Bless them. That's slowed things down up north.Here in Wales, the picture is much clearer. And it looks something like this:Constiuency gainsLabour:Wrexham, from IndependentPlaid:Aberconwy, from LabourLlanelli, from LabourConservatives:Cardiff North, from LabourClwyd West, from LabourPreseli, from LabourCarmarthen West, from LabourRegional VoteNorth Wales:CON 2 (=), PC 1 (=), LD 1 (=)South Wales East:PC 2 (+1), CON 1 (-1), LD 1 (=)Mid & West Wales: LAB 2 (+2), CON 1 (-2), PC 1 (=)South Wales Central (probable):PC 2 (=), CON 1 (=), LD 1 (=)South Wales West (probable):PC 2 (=), LD 1 (=), CON 1 (=)Total seats:LAB 26 (-3), PC 15 (+2), Con 11 (=), LD 7 (+1), IND 1 (-1)* or PC 14, CON 12 depending on South Wales West regional.Likely coalition:Lab-Lib most likely. But the Lib Dems would have to sell this to their members. They may make demands Labour are unwilling to deliver. One possible outcome is that Jenny...
Glyn, Goodbye and Good Luck
2007-05-04 09:05:00 From inside the BBC's election hub there has been universal cross-party, cross-media sadness that Glyn Davies has been the unfortunate victim of the Conservatives' success in the Mid and West Wales region. It's a sentiment sure to be echoed in Plaid, Labour and Lib Dem HQ. There cannot have been a more respected politician in the Senedd during the last four years.Gaining Preseli was always on the cards for the Conservatives. But Carmarthen West was an outside shot. It should have been Plaid's. It wasn't, and the Tories paid dearly on the list.Glyn's blog and his attitude towards politics in general are a credit to his profession. Indeed, Glyn's honesty and frankness set him apart from his peers. Even on the last day of campaigning he stayed true to his principles and would not speak ill of the Polish immigrants in his constituency in order to earn a few cheap, slimy votes.Glyn, you will be missed. And I sincerely hope you continue to blog. As long as it's not about gardening.
Not a Labour meltdown but a definite thaw
2007-05-04 07:29:00 Good Morning, Bore Da! If you've been following all night, imagine I'm saying that in a Berkshire accent.Top lines: Labour get almost half the seats with less than a third of the vote.There is a Cameron effect. The Tories have picked up an extra four constituencies in Wales and came very close in three others.Plaid have pushed on. This was a professional campaign, with clearly defined goals. With the exception of Carmarthen West, they were achieved. For the Lib Dems this was an election for consolidation. They are now well-placed for 2011.BNP perform worryingly well - scoring over 5% of the vote on the North Wales regional list.But, Plaid elect the first ethnic minority assembly member - Mohammad 'Oscar' Asghar in South Wales East. Good for him. He's a great dancer too.No sensational returns for Dafydd Wigley and Ron Davies.At the time of writing (6.30am) there's a third recount in the Vale of Glamorgan. Labour are apparently ahead by 82 votes.This has been a Labour capitulati...
Lib Dem update: 'we're set for second place'
2007-05-04 03:06:00 After all that fuss about Newport East, Lib Dems are now saying they are set for second in Newport East, Monmouth, Swansea East and West. And despite a huge effort, second in Ceredigion too.We got all excited about the prospect of a Lib Dem constituency gain. Doesn't look like it's going to happen. Still, they're in with a shout for a couple of regionals.
ISLWYN: FIRST RESULT
2007-05-04 03:00:00 Kevin Etheridge (IND) 6,665Irene James (LAB) 8,883Mark McGuire (LD) 1,135Alan Pritchard (PC) 5,084Paul Williams (CON) 1,797Tame start to proceedings. You'll note that we predicted this one a long time ago.BUT. Last time this was a majority of around 8,000. Now it's just over 2,000. That's a drop of 18% (or 27% since the General Election).Unfortunately, I don't think Islwyn is a seat we can realistically take as a microcosm of the way Wales will vote. More to come...
The very latest predictions
2007-05-04 02:26:00 - S4C are apparently calling NEATH the possible surprise story of the night. You won't be surprised to hear that Plaid insiders have been telling me this for ages. They even persuaded Dafydd Wigley to have a walk around in the town centre. Plaid are saying they've probably won the election day vote. But the postal votes should still see Labour through.- Bridgend update. Tories say it's "very close".- ABERCONWY UPDATE: From Tory candidate Dylan Jones-Evans. He says he still has no idea which way it will go. Labour looks to be out of it and the Lib Dems (as expected) are non-existent. Still all to play for then, but I hear Plaid are very optimistic.- Some of you are asking about the Rhondda. Expert analysis from the Beeb's Guto Thomas is that after Burberry only God could beat Leighton. Well, he didn't actually say that. I made it more dramatic. But still, you get the gist.- Bridgend looking dodgy. Who'll be the next leader of the Labour party if Carwyn Jones doesn't make it th...
Berkshire????
2007-05-04 02:12:00 Doesn't Huw Edwards know I hark from the rolling hills of Merthyr?Nuff said.*An email tells me that it may not be clear in the studio that I am simply relaying comments and emails from visitors to my blog. Apparently it seems like I'm accusing Huw Edwards of accent fraud. No way, I think it's lovely.
Five minute first past the post quiz
2007-05-04 01:59:00 Hmm. Quizzes are notoriously difficult to pull off on blogs because you just end up copying each other's answers.So, here's the deal. It's called a five minute first past the post quiz, because you have to wait until five minutes after the post time to publish your answers. Then, it's a free for all and the first commenter with a complete set of answers is the winner. Unless it goes on for ages. In which case I'll penalise you for every five minutes you delay. There, it's simple!Prize: something I can steal from the BBC without them noticing.Remember, you can't post your answers for five minutes or you're disqualified.1. In which constituency will you find the village of Penisarwain?2. What do Felipe Calderon, Benjamin Netanyahu and Rhodri Morgan have in common?3. If Welsh Lib Dem leader Mike German wasn't a politician, what would he be?4. Before this year, how many people popular Welsh surname 'Jenkins' have stood for election to the national assembly?5. Which candidate ...
Labour concede Llanelli!
2007-05-04 01:47:00 Whispers are that Labour knew the writing was on the wall as early as this afternoon. Plaid were reluctant to make capital in case it dissuaded some of their core vote. Vaughan Roderick is reporting that Labour have now conceded it.Start of a meltdown or just one of those we always thought would go?I wouldn't get too carried away. Yet.But if what we are hearing about Newport East, Newport West, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West, Clwyd West, Delyn, Preseli, Aberconwy... if that's all true. Well, then. Squeaky bums.
Campaign killers and May the Fourthcasts
2007-05-04 01:07:00 This campaign has taken the political manifesto to new levels. We've seen manifestos for absolutely everything: old people, young people, North Wales, South Wales, green stuff, sports stuff... you name it. Any excuse for a photo opportunity.The four main manifestos were, in all honesty, boring enough. The 20+ supplementary ones were a complete waste of paper. They said absolutely nothing new.Plaid were churning out manifestos quicker than an East Asian sweatshop churns our Burberry polo shirts. But they were all to blame so I'm not going to take points off any one party in particular.As for the rest of the campaigns, here's my assessment:Labour: Talked a lot about what they've already done and even more about who they don't want in power after the election. They didn't talk much about what they'd still like to do if the good people of Wales were to allow them. Defining moments: 'saving' hospitals only the government could have been in a position to put under threat; implodi...
Rumours, Whispers, Gossip
2007-05-04 00:02:00 Plonk them in the comments or an email and I shall, in turn, plonk them in here...- Another plug from Huw Edwards. Something about blogs being written by incontinent saddos. Definition of incontinent: 'lacking in moderation or self-control, esp. of sexual desire.' Oh dear, good job my mum isn't watching. - Plug from Huw Edwards. He obviously doesn't know what a blog is:) Thanks anyway.- Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East, Newport East!!- Islwyn safe. Upset in 1999, not in 2007.- Lib Dems talking up Newport East. For them to win they'd need a staggering 14.3% swing. Apparently the Tories are predicting this as a Lib Dem gain - unconfirmed at present.- Rhodri Morgan and Sue Essex spotted outside Tesco next to Whitchurch library at 8.40 urging people to vote. Also, I'm told in M&S. Rhodri could be buying some slippers for his retirement. Last minute desperation?- Tories talking up Newport West.- Turnout LOW in Ynys Mon. Plaid jittery?- Labour vote collapsed in...
Predicitions: make them now coz postdicting is cheating
2007-05-03 23:31:00 It's already late. And it's just going to get later. So, I'll keep this concise. Unlike other commentators I'm not going to dilly dally and play it safe. Daran from Positif Politics wanted a mention so here it is: people are paying you for political advice and you still don't have the balls to call Llanelli!:) Humph. I'd rather have egg on my face than no eggs at all. You can't have an election without eggs (blimey, that's bollocks isn't it? Caffeine kicking in...)Marginals:Aberconwy: Plaid gain from Labour (though notionally a hold due to boundary changes). Sorry Dylan.Caerphilly: Labour Hold. Ron Davies has badgered the incumbent Labour AM with all his will. But unless Caerphilly has a collective moment of madness, this seat is safe.Cardiff North: Tory gain from Labour. Cherie and Gordon some Howe fail.Carmarthen West: Plaid gain from Labour. Christine fails to Gwyther the storm.Clwyd West: Tory gain form Labour. Being Christian and a little bit iffy on homosexuality didn...
Blamerbell at the Beeb...
2007-05-03 21:49:00 So, I'm sitting here in the semi-outside with Joe Allen. There's loads of booze opposite me, which is great as it's my birthday. Problem is it's from the Pobl y Cwm set so it's probably fake.Word in the Beeb is that turnout is variable (whoaa, revelation), but probably very high in the hyper-marginals. There were queues this morning at one polling station in Newport East, apparently. Did I say polling station? I meant family planning clinic.Elsewhere, it seems it's a straight race between Plaid and the Tories in Aberconwy and there are whispers that Labour are already lowering the bar about what constitutes a 'defeat' tonight.Guto Thomas has just joined us. Suddenly it smells of chips.Don't go away tonight chaps. Still to come I've got five minute quizzes, predictions and much more anoraky madness.Also, if you've got any gossip from counts or the inside, do get in touch. Email me: blamerbell[at]googlemail.comAdr-ian Masters has just come by to tell us he has a dressing roo...
What have we done?
2007-05-03 15:08:00 This is my life: brief flirtation with football, passionate and elaborate relationship with classical music and academia, audacious attempt to learn Japanese from scratch and then finally, return home to have a bash at being a journalist and as an almost accidental consequence, a Welsh political blogger.With the exception of those formative years with a football (I played for Merthyr schoolboys don't you know), I've only ever been involved in niche pursuits. I have shouted and screamed about their importance. But I've almost always had to concede that the majority of the population will never really understand nor share my enthusiasm.So, when Alwyn ap Huw ponders on his blog if the internet has had an affect on this election, I'd like to think that it has. Because it's not necessarily important that people share your enthusiasm - what's important is that they acknowledge it exists and are sufficiently impressed by it. The best political correspondents seem to be irrepressibly...
What floats your vote? #2
2007-05-03 01:49:00 Ever since I've been interested in politics, I've wondered what it must be like to live in a marginal constituency. Over the years, I got to know my local MP, Ted Rowlands, reasonably well. We met at various music events as his wife gave out the prizes. All I knew was that my Dad didn't like him very much. And time after time I'd watch the election results come in, and it would always be the same. 'What's the point of that?', I thought.But two years ago in Cambridge, it got a bit more interesting. I remember thousands of people queuing in market square just to catch a glimpse of Charles Kennedy. The Guildhall was so full he came out and gave an impromptu speech. It wasn't the best, but he delivered it without falling off his soap box and the crowd gave a huge cheer.It felt like politics mattered and that change was in the air. In the end, the Lib Dems gained the seat in what turned out to be a miserable night for Labour. (I should stress that I have a natural disinclination...
Election night, watch the blogs don't bite
2007-05-02 01:12:00 It'll never work. But let's have a bash anyway.Here's the idea: I'll be sitting somewhere in the BBC with Joe Allen of Wales Elects. I'm told it's going to be semi-outside so I might wear the Doctor Who coat.The two of us will have computers. This is bad news. It's impossible not to look like a techie geek if you're sitting in front of a computer on television. We might even be wearing glasses. We were both probably bullied at school.Anyway, the idea is (I think) that we live blog from within the BBC's election hub in Llandaf. This is, by the way, just about the only kind of hub the Lib Dems haven't promised in their manifesto.But more than that, we'll be monitoring your blogs too and discussing the best of them through the night on the BBC's output in Welsh and English. There is, of course, a very real danger that nobody will have written anything. Welsh politics is quite a small world at the best of times. And at 4 o'clock in the morning it's probably about as active...
'Pre-approved and ready to go!'
2007-05-01 01:03:00 A moment of excitement at the end of ITV's Wales Decides. Never mind the fact that half the audience are from a wind farm pressure group. Rhodri Morgan has let the cat out of the bag: Labour are already working with Peter Hain's Welsh Office on implementing their manifesto pledges for the 2007-11 assembly term. Peter Hain, of course, has to approve all the new assembly measures before they can become law. But right at the end of the show, Rhodri let slip that Labour's proposals are 'pre-approved and ready to go'.That's funny, I was under the impression that political parties needed a mandate from the electorate before they could start the business of government. Can Labour really be so sure of a majority that they can begin their legislative programme before a single vote has even been cast?
Four days to go and...
2007-04-30 11:48:00 Lib Dem leader Mike German is in Aberystwyth again. He might as well buy a second home there. That'll please Elin Jones. Still, he might need somewhere to lie low on election night. Can you really see Plaid making the same mistake twice?Labour say it's all about partnership. Peter Hain and Rhodri Morgan are going to comb each other's hair for the press sometime this afternoon. Activists will be choking on their clear red water.Plaid Cymru have finally persuaded some chap called Eurfyl ap Gwilym to come down from London to take the flak over their finance programme. Expect Labour and the Tories to sling the mud with venom. I fear for poor Eurfyl it's going to be like trying to volley it away with a tennis racket - much of it is going to splatter over the brave little soldier's face. And why do Plaid need to 'call in' an expert anyway? Can't any of their AMs do sums?And the Tories have brought in a notorious vote winner to help them with the final push. Unfortunately, he wasn...
Don't know, don't care
2007-04-28 21:15:00 Perhaps it's just because Cardiff City lost at home again. Or perhaps it's because I haven't been invited to any post-election parties yet... But I'm coming clean: this election is exciting nobody except those politicians and journos whose lives depend on it. There are others who are getting into the spirit, but their interest is the political equivalent of hanging around guiltily to watch a neighbour's house burn down.Fair play to the Western Mail, they've given this election a right old bash. But their front page today - 'Election 2007: What you say'- should really have been followed by the line, 'Couldn't give a shit'.The paper dedicated its first five pages to election coverage, headlining their exclusive poll. But time after time, the most voluminous answer came under 'Don't know/Don't care'.And if we are really, truly and honestly talking about the 'reaction on the doorsteps', it is the same. I've had the privilege of going out with a few canvassers and watch...
For Christ's sake, don't cock it up!
2007-04-27 11:55:00 The Tories are polling badly. But it?s OK. Priority marginals like Clwyd West are going well. Just make sure the candidate doesn?t say anything stupid?. Damn!Up steps Darren 'my evangelicalism won?t effect my campaign' Millar with a couple of gems at a hustings last night.According to the Labour party (so we only have one side of the story so far), the Conservative candidate for Clwyd West said that "creationism should be taught in Welsh science lessons" and "homosexuality is a sin".In the interests of proper journalism, I?ve checked the manifesto. But I can?t seem to find the 'in God?s name we shall purify' section.David Cameron, renowned for taking a hard line on the politically incorrect, will not be best pleased.UPDATE: The Tories say the remarks about homosexuality were not Mr Millar's own and that he merely referred to texts which said that homosexuality was a sin. His comments about creationism being taught in schools were (apparently) in the context of faith schools. My...
Latest poll shows Plaid surge as Tories falter #2
2007-04-27 10:54:00 The Western Mail has now published its poll. And to the delight of Plaid and the dismay of almost everyone else, the results reinforce yesterday's ITV poll. Can we now call this a trend? Even if - given our idiosyncratic electoral system - the science is a bit dodgy, is there not a pattern emerging?UPDATE: William Hill puts the Tories much closer to Plaid than the great Welsh public (or at least a contentiosuly drawn sample of them). Worth a bet?
Latest poll shows Plaid surge as Tories falter
2007-04-26 19:07:00 Could you detect a hint of smugness as the Tories reacted to the first poll of the campaign earlier this month, putting them in second place ahead of Plaid Cymru? 'Corporal Jones tells Plaid: don't panic' scoffed Nick Bourne (via the press officer). Others were slightly more cagey. Not so Glyn Davies, who insisted the poll was "precisely the same as I've been predicting for months. Which is rather good news for the Conservatives."Well, Glyn, I bet you haven't been predicting this:Constituency vote %:Labour 32 (-8)Plaid 26 (+5)Con 19 (-1)Lib Dem 15 (+1)Others 8 (+4)Regional vote %:Labour 34 (-3)Plaid 24 (+4)Con 18 (-2)Lib Dem 15 (+2)Others 9 (-3)Seat prediction:Labour 25 (-4)Plaid 15 (+3)Con 10 (-1)Lib Dem 8 (+2)Independent 2 (=)As before, these results need to be taken with a McDonald's chip servery-sized pinch of salt. Last time, some Tories went large and now look a bit silly. It is, of course, still worth remembering that the way the poll data is gathered and the way the pr...
Wigley or won't he?
2007-04-25 13:15:00 I can't believe I've been writing this blog for six months without asking the question, what the hell is Dafydd Wigley playing at?He is the nearest thing Wales has to a statesman. He was a consummate parliamentarian and continues to be respected across party political boundaries. And yet he is standing for election second on the North Wales regional list.Now, at the moment Plaid have one list member in that region. To get another they'd have to do pretty poorly at constituency level. But in reality, they're in the hunt for two gains in North Wales: Aberconwy and Clwyd West. This would be great news for Plaid, but catastrophic for Dafydd Wigley who would be flung into the political wilderness (possibly accompanied by Janet Ryder).So what's his game?Well, apparently 'Dafydd's done his Maths', the implication being that he's got it all worked out because he is Dafydd Wigley and you absolutely have to trust that big boomy voice. I'm not convinced. Wigley is re-energised, that...
Alan Johnson backs Plaid candidate
2007-04-25 10:30:00 Alan Johnson (or whichever loon does his IT) has sent a letter of support to a Plaid Cymru candidate.Carolyn Edwards, who is fourth on the South Wales West regional list, was shocked when she received an email from the aspiring deputy prime minister entitled 'Good Luck in Neath & Port Talbot':With the elections just around the corner I wanted to email and wish you well. Just like you, I'll be spending a few extra quid on shoe leather over the next week or so and will share with you the unenviable delight of aching feet at the end of each day between now and May 3 rd. But never lose sight of why we do this. We do it because we're the ones with the ideas and policies that make a real difference to the lives of millions of people in this country.As Secretary of State I know that we have successfully driven standards forward in education throughout every region. We could only do that with unprecedented investment and an unfaltering belief that every child should reach their full p...
Deal or no deal?
2007-04-24 20:01:00 Right, that?s the day over. Time to reflect. (For background see HERE)My initial reaction to this story was that we could nit pick our way out of it. What?s the difference between a deal and a coalition, I wondered. Isn't this just a story about semantics? Some blogs and news bulletins evidently wondered this too, because that's also the line they took.But if we go back to Labour?s denial, what they say is that ?this story is rubbish from start to finish?. So, is it? Is it rubbish that senior labour politicians (note that the report calls them politicians and not sources) are understood by the BBC to be ?prepared to make major policy concessions in return for the party's support in votes of confidence and on issues such as the assembly budget??Is it rubbish that ?prominent Labour figures have said they are considering a deal with Plaid?? Is it? Is it? Eh?If it is rubbish, then someone has made it up. Surely Labour aren?t accusing the BBC of that?But let?s imagine it isn?t rubbis...
Kick Labour into touch?
2007-04-24 09:57:00 Plaid Cymru are going to need some new posters.1230 UPDATE: This is fast turning into a game of semantics. Just the sort of thing that will turn ordinary people off as much as it turns us anoraks on.Labour rule out a coalition with Plaid, who in turn rule out 'propping up' Labour. But that doesn't rule out an 'agreement'. Which is just what Labour are accusing Plaid of patching together with the Tories. At least nobody now has the moral high ground on making amorous advances. They're all at it.1245 UPDATE: Have talks, official or otherwise, already taken place?1345 UPDATE: Leighton Andrews insists the source is not a senior figure: "The BBC may have found someone in the Labour Party to say what the BBC is reporting - but they are certainly not anyone with any authority to say anything about Welsh Labour strategy pre- or post-election." But the BBC's Vaughan Roderick claims it is someone 'high up in the party'. It's hardly surprising that Labour's unionist wing are issuing...
Redwood's rottweiler bites again
2007-04-24 01:12:00 Nick Bourne's been having quite an easy time of it as late. Admittedly, Labour piped up last week and accused him of being scared to leave his air-conditioned office, but that's about as heated as it's got.Enter Rod Richards, his predecessor as Tory leader."I regret the fact that these days all politicians from all parties are basically cardboard cut-outs," said Richards, obviously taking this photo (left) a little too seriously."As for the Conservative group leader Nick Bourne I have no regard for him whatsoever."I will not be voting in the assembly elections because nobody standing represents me or my views and I have taken a positive decision to abstain which shows my disdain for the way the assembly is operating. I certainly won't be voting Conservative because they don't deserve it and have no credibility in my view".So the Tories are one vote down already. But it's no surprise that Richards, one of John Redwood's former enforcers, isn't a big fan of Nick Bourne. After ...
BNP TV
2007-04-23 01:02:00 Tonight, the BNP will get a chunk of airtime for their party political broadcast. And there's a concerted campaign going on to stop it. (So far supported by the National Union of Journalists, the Broadcasting Entertainment Cinematograph and Theatre Union, Unite Against Fascism and Respect).You can read all about the legislation and guidelines relating to the party political broadcasts HERE.Needless to say, there are those who are asking broadcasters to censor. I suppose it's simply a question of whether that is necessary, or whether the public can decide for themselves.
Honest John: Wood fires off final answers
2007-04-21 17:17:00 Here it is, the last Honest John post. Jonathan Morgan, Mick Bates and Huw Lewis have been and gone. After this I'll have to start writing this blog myself again, which frankly sounds a lot more trouble than getting you lot to ask the questions and persuading some gullible politicians to answer them.Last up is Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru AM for South Wales Central. Leanne has hit the headlines for her role in the anti-Trident protests in Faslane Naval base, in which she was arrested. She is one of those politicians whom we lazily tend to prefix 'outspoken'. Let's see if it's justified...Are alcoholism and drug dependency offences that should be punishable orillnesses that should be cured? (Sion Gwilym)Before I was elected I worked as a probation officer. I take the view that substance dependency is an illness, often triggered by traumatic events - undealt with childhood abuse and bereavement being commontriggers. It depends on the offence and the circumstances - a drug dependent ...
Only in my backyard
2007-04-20 17:39:00 I blogged recently on the fact that for the first time in well over decade, Plaid Cymru currently have no policy on nuclear energy.But there are two things we know for certain. One is that Plaid's leader Ieuan Wyn Jones backs a new nuclear power station in his own backyard, the other is that Plaid's pre-manifesto (released in March this year) categorically states: "Plaid Cymru does not support nuclear power."There's an obvious tension between these two positions. You can't be for and against something at the same time. The solution? Pretend you were never against it.At a local level, at least, Ieuan Wyn Jones now appears to be using the absence of a policy on nuclear energy in Plaid's manifesto to justify his support for the replacement of the Wylfa plant in Ynys Mon.The Bangor & Anglesey Mail reports that during a recent hustings on the island, Conservative candidate James Roach accused Plaid Cymru of double standards. He said: "It's interesting that within their manifest...
Honest John: Huw Lewis defends his corner
2007-04-19 18:15:00 Huw Lewis is Labour's assembly member for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. He has a hefty majority and ambition to match. As a politician loyal to the Blair agenda, he'll be monitoring developments in the Labour party closely as Rhodri Morgan's tenure as leader comes to an end. I'll keep the introduction short because the questions and answers are plentiful...Would you be prepared to PUBLICLY have your fingerprints and DNA taken for your new ID Card, before the election? (ianp)It would be a pretty boring thing to do PUBLICLY. I remain to be convinced about the need for ID cards, and would want some firmer guarantees about cost before committing one way or the other. But if your implication is that I have a criminal past, I have no fears there!Where in your opinion does the clear red water lie within your manifesto and London Labour's? (Marcus Warner)I don't think we should get too hung about the idea of "clear, red water", we should never look to do things differently for the sake ...
Honest John: Bates passes clear yellow water
2007-04-18 16:08:00 The second politician to rise to Blamerbell's Honest John challenge is the Lib Dems' Mick Bates. The bar has been set relatively high after the performance of the Conservatives' Jonathan Morgan.'Chwarae teg (Fair play) to JM for a pretty clear set of answers' said Aran, while Plaid-supporting Sanddef said he'd even consider voting for him under the right conditions. Valleys Mam was less impressed, arguing that people would always remember the way the Tories treated the miners.Today's victim politician has been assembly member for Montgomeryshire since 1999, but in the 2003 election his majority was halved by the outspoken Conservative contender Glyn Davies. Funnily enough, if the swings of four years ago were to be repeated on May 3rd Mick would lose his seat and so, in all probability, would the man who narrowed the gap last time around, confined as he is to the vagaries of the regional list.But Mick is evidently campaigning hard to hang on. That's the only explanation I ca...
I want Socialist Equality for Wales!
2007-04-18 09:19:00 When the list of candidates for May 3rd was finalised last week, the inclusion of the Socialist Equality Party on the South Wales Central list turned a few heads.Actually, that's not true. It didn't turn any heads. They might as well be the the People's Front of Judea as far as most people are concerned. But it did turn my head ever so slightly - a fraction of a movement, like the sort you'd make if you happened to be balancing a pint of battery acid on the tip of your nose.I've always reserved a degree of admiration for the plucky underdog parties, contesting elections against the odds. But I've also wondered why they bother, especially when it comes to standing in Wales. Resources may be thin, finances steep, supporters virtually non-existent, but if you're going to stand in the Welsh Assembly election surely you should be, well, just a little bit Welsh?Not so the Socialist Equality Party, it seems, who are so committed to equality they've given Scotland and Wales the same...
Top 5 campaign car crashes
2007-04-17 01:02:00 It's election time, so politicians everywhere are creeping out of their hovels and stepping into dodgy tracksuits, bin bags, go-karts... anything to get a picture in the local rag. But some moments have just been plain bizarre, and there's still over two weeks to go!1. Rhodri Morgan's 'ironic' train journey on the day South Wales' trains ground to a halt. Cue headlines: First Minister running out of steam etc.2. Rhodri on yet another mode of transport. This time it's a boat. He's donned his life jacket and is off out on a little jolly with Tony Blair. Cue headlines: Labour's sinking ship, Labour in need of a lifeline etc. Worse still, Rhodders and Tony get off the boat and embark on a steep uphill struggle back to base. They might as well just write their own scripts.3. Dafydd Wigley squeezes into a shellsuit for the first time since 1983. This is to make old people feel better about exercising. But it just makes them feel better about not exercising in the same place as Da...
Minister's 'snub' to the Welsh Language
2007-04-16 14:47:00 Staying with the Welsh language theme today, it's interesting to note which Labour candidates have submitted English-only registrations for the forthcoming national assembly elections.There's plenty of talk in Cardiff Bay of a nationalist/unionist split in the Labour party. And this may become all the more pronounced after the election as the end of Rhodri Morgan's tenure as leader grows ever closer. While Carwyn Jones, perhaps unbeknownst to himself, heads up the nationalist wing, the two AMs widely considered the stalwarts of the unionist camp are Leighton Andrews and Andrew Davies.So it's intriguing to discover that Enterprise Minister Andrew Davies has not submitted a bilingual registration for the May 3rd ballot, unlike most of his colleagues up and down the country who will stand on a 'Labour Party/Y Blaid Lafur' ticket.Unfortunately, the Rhondda Electoral Office does not publish its list of candidates online, so at the time of writing it's not possible to tell if Leigh...
Why won't Labour make Welsh an official language?
2007-04-16 09:27:00 The Conservatives, Plaid and the Lib Dems all agree: Welsh should be an official language. It's there in black and white in each manifesto.As it stands, Welsh is already a 'Language of Government' in Wales, but it does not have official language status (even though Jane Davidson seems to think that it does).This matters because Welsh, at present, doesn't really exist. Despite being spoken by a now sizable proportion of the nation, Welsh lags way behind other minority languages in Europe. Irish is an official European language, while Basque, Catalan and Galician are 'approved' European languages. This means that EU correspondence and speeches can be translated into these languages if notice is given.Meanwhile, Welsh has no such recognition. It is possible for MEPs to make speeches in Welsh in the European parliament, but they won't be translated so what's the point? It may amuse the Italians to see the remnants of Glenys Kinnock's lunch spat out in a mouthful of complex cons...
It's between Labour and the Lib Dems here
2007-04-15 20:50:00 Haven't you heard? The whole of Cardiff is a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems. At least that's what they will tell you.Laughing in the face of the actual statistics, the Lib Dems argue with some gall that 'everyone knows the Conservatives and Plaid can't win here'. Well, it's news to me, and news to Tory candidate Jonathan Morgan too I'm sure; he'll be devastated to learn he has no chance in Cardiff North despite being 6,400 votes closer to Labour than his Lib Dem counterpart.So, how do they do it? Surely it's not an outright lie? No, even for politicians that would be going too far. Instead, the Lib Dems cheekily use council election results to calculate their graphs, making it look as if they are in second place, whereas they are actually in third. But where they genuinely lead, as in Cardiff Central, suddenly the council election results are an irrelevance and assembly election history is of primary importance.The most staggering thing about this ploy is th...
Alun Davies is a radical socialist
2007-04-14 01:02:00 Perched comfortably on top of the list for Labour in Mid & West Wales is a chap called Alun Davies. He's never been an elected assembly member but he has stood in elections before.The only way to describe this man is hard left. He is a fierce opponent of privatisation and is keen to remind people that the prime minister has led the country to an illegal war in Iraq. He detests market forces and is demanding complete withdrawal from what he calls "the capitalist European Union".He is, of course, standing for the Socialist Labour Party and should not be confused with the other Alun Davies, top of the list for Welsh Labour in the same region:)Elsewhere, Glyn Davies has undergone another extreme political transformation. Not content with stealing the Welsh nationalists' clothes, Glyn is now donning the garb of the Trotskyites and standing first on the list for the Communists in North Wales.Yes, you can have a lot of fun with the full official list of candidates for the forthcoming el... |
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