The Fantasy Baseball GeneralsThe Fantasy Baseball GeneralsA blog devoted to the underlying theory and strategic principles of Fantasy Baseball Articles
Not a Sleeper: Adam Wainwright
2008-02-13 22:07:00 An analysis of popular sleeper Adam Wainwright . My 2nd choice in my Not a Sleeper series might surprise some people. Unlike Micah Owings, who I profiled first, I have seen Wainwright's name on many a sleeper list. It's easy to see why- to start, he was a former top prospect with the Braves and was the centerpiece of the Cardinals end of the trade involving J.D. Drew. He then dominated as a
Roster Construction and Flexibility
2008-02-13 16:58:00 What are the issues that arise when analyzing roster construction? There is one characteristic that trumps all others. My next RotoTimes article is on roster construction, and is still in their premium section. But here are the main points that I raised and wanted to mention here: The “goal” of roster construction should be to have no goal! It should be to maximize flexibility and potential More About: Construction , Flexibility , Roster
Some Key Notes on Information Sources
2008-02-12 22:31:00 From our friends at Brock for Broglio More About: Information , Notes , Sources
Compensation Deals from a Commissioner's Perspective
2008-02-12 22:21:00 After a long sojourn, Jeremy returns with his first post of the year. Hello Friends in the baseball blogosphere! Sorry it has been so long – I am sure my tens of fans out there…ok, 10 fans…fine, friends and family have been anxiously awaiting my return. It has been crazy managing the day job, the evening job, the family and the house hunting with the three strat-o-matic leagues, two roto More About: Compensation , Perspective
Mock Draft and Radio Show Update
2008-02-12 14:40:00 This Sunday, 2/17, I will be doing a mock draft. You can follow along if you are interested at Fantasy Baseball Search. It will be hosted by our friends at Mock Draft Central. The draft will start at 5:30 EST. Immediately following, we will have our first radio show, featuring myself, Todd Farino of Fantasy Baseball Search and RC from Junkyard Jake. This will be my first ever radio show, so More About: Radio , Show , Update
Some Offensive "Collapse" Candidates
2008-02-12 04:13:00 Some more fun with PECOTA. In my prior article on PECOTA, I addressed offensive breakout candidates. Now, here are some players that are slated for "collapse," per PECOTA: Cristian Guzman-This should come as no surprise since he was, roughly speaking, the worst regular in baseball history during his career. Last year I wrote about the amazing fact that he wasn't completely worthless, and I More About: Collapse , Candidates
Fantasy Baseball and the Stock Market: The Parallels Abound
2008-02-11 21:07:00 A look at the similarities between fantasy baseball and the stock market. As an equity research analyst by day, and fantasy baseball fanatic by umm....always, it has occurred to me that two of my biggest interests are strikingly similar. The easiest way to see the parallels is by starting with the auction draft. Final auction prices for players are determined by supply and demand, just as stock More About: Baseball , Stock Market , Market , Fantasy , Fantasy Baseball
Expert League Draft
2008-02-11 15:40:00 I have gotten a few requests for a date and time. I don't have an official date yet, but I will post it here once it is confirmed. I also will be discussing it on the radio show, which starts 2/24. More About: League , Draft , Expert
Not a Sleeper: Micah Owings
2008-02-09 23:27:00 An analysis of popular deeper-league sleeper Micah Owings . In a departure from my previous 2 strategy articles relating to straight drafts, it's time to get back to what I've been itching to do: write about more individual players! This article will be the first in a series looking at pitchers I've seen mentioned as a sleeper in various league types in which I disagree. I have decided to devote More About: Sleeper
Some Theory on Projections
2008-02-08 04:39:00 Looking at some of the issues that arise with projections. My columns at Rototimes (sadly) are for subscribers only. My first column is on the theory of projections. It is my contention that slavish adherence to projections is not only flawed when dealing with the better players, but that the entire concept of "value" is meaningless. Here are the main points from the article: There are More About: Theory
Are We Really That Bad??
2008-02-07 17:49:00 From an article on the 20 geekiest hobbies. We are number three! 3. Fantasy sports leagues That scene in Knocked Up says it all: A woman who suspects her husband of infidelity instead finds him shacked up with a bunch of pot-bellied dudes in jerseys and caps, deep into a mock draft. In the moment, she’s so horrified by what she’s witnessing that she thinks it’s worse than him cheating on her.
Looking to Join a League?
2008-02-07 15:31:00 Two guys I know are looking for owners for two high stakes leagues. If anyone is interested email me and I will put you in contact with the commissioners. More About: Join , League , A-League
Latest Hardball Times Column
2007-10-23 20:52:00 Here is a link to my latest column. The Bust of the Year More About: Column , Times
Carlos Lee-Should He Be Kept?
2007-10-22 14:38:00 A reader request on Carlo s Lee. A reader asked about Carlos Lee and whether he should be kept. Carlos had an excellent season of course: 32 HR 119 RBI .303/.357/.528 Personally I would like to see that OBP a bit higher, but other that that his season is fully supported by his underlying skills: 90% contact rate 30% hit rate 0.84 BB/K ratio .290 xBA In fact looking at Lee historically he is
Reader Requests on Certain Players--First Up: Joe Mauer
2007-10-18 15:26:00 Taking a look at some selected players at reader requests. I have received a few requests from readers on certain players, so I will be addressing them over the next couple of weeks. I wanted to start with is Joe Mauer . The first issue is the injury picture. Aside from his strained quad he also apparently has a hernia condition. Some quick research showed that he had a hernia condition in the More About: Players , Reader , Requests , Cert
Links to Latest Hardball Times Posts
2007-10-16 16:38:00 Here are the latest Links Who Should I Keep? Which $1 Player Do You Prefer? More About: Times , Posts
Updating My Discussion of Possible "Z" Players--Illuminating a Key Principl
2007-10-15 15:22:00 Some more discussion on C.C. Sabathia and a key principle of auction strategy that is usually not considered or even discussed elsewhere. Plus, how could I have forgotten about "Z"-ing Bobby Jenks? Somehow I forgot to include a discussion about Bobby Jenks in my prior post about the "Z" rule. Jenks clearly had a career year. Generally he has had poor control with walk rates of 3.5 and 4.0 in More About: Players , Discussion , Illuminating , Mina , Lumi
Hughes, Gallardo and Bailey
2007-10-15 08:53:00 Of these big three prospects, there is a clear pecking order for 2008. Of these three, there is a wide gap in their rookie performances, and in what can be expected for 2008. I asked Keith Law to provide his scouting take on the three, and will update my analysis once I get the reports. For now, let's look at them in order of worst to first: Homer Bailey As far as I am concerned, I never More About: Gallardo , Hughes , Hugh , Lard
My Ten Trades to Rebuild
2007-10-12 17:43:00 Part two of Jeremy's rebuilding effort. As promised/threatened, here are the trades I made in my rebuilding effort this year: Trade 1 – Garret Anderson, Joey Gathright and Luis Vizcaino for Jason Kubel, Daniel Cabrera and Trot Nixon. I saw this as fairly simple – Anderson is getting older and Nixon fills the same role for a rebuilding team – at bats and value elsewhere. Kubel had a better
The Art of Rebuilding – Or is it Science? Whatever, How To Rebuild
2007-10-11 14:43:00 Part one of Jeremy's rebuilding effort in a long-term carryover league. Howdy friends out there on the Internets! Sorry it is has been a while, but life sometimes gets in the way of baseball. Shocking as that may be to many... Anyway, I was asked to talk about rebuilding a franchise and this is because I have done just that in my longtime AL-only carryover league. This is a league that I More About: Science
The Fantasy Bust of the Year
2007-10-10 14:31:00 And the winner is..... There were quite a few candidates for the fantasy bust of the year, and depending on criteria you can have quite a few legitimate winners. However, when it comes to value, age, performance and non "bad luck" explanations for a drop off and the entire package, there is one player who stands out. Note that I am specifically including the "bad luck" criteria since fantasy More About: Fantasy , Bust , Year
How To Use The Powell Doctrine in a Keeper Fantasy League
2007-10-05 18:30:00 Those in keeper leagues need to decide when to go for it and when to build for next year. The Powell Doctrine can help you make that decision. In a keeper fantasy league, the annual question that teams face is whether to go for a championship in the current season or trade for the future. That dilemma is the thing that vaults dynasty leagues to the top of the heap and what makes them so far More About: Fantasy , League , Well , Keeper
The "Z" rule and Who To Keep Next Year Among Three Studs
2007-10-04 14:47:00 Who should get a one year contract: Ortiz, Morneau or Sabathia? Fresh off a wire-to-wire victory in the high stakes league, there is still no time like the present to begin thinking about next year. One rule we have is called the "Z" rule. Essentially it allows you to sign to a one-time, one year contract any player whose contract expired this year. The primary focus is to allow one more year More About: Year , Studs , Rule
At Least Mrs. Yastrzemski Didn't Use It: Sex Product Steals Nickname of Hal
2007-10-03 17:14:00 Language is a living thing and words can have different meanings to different generations. The newest of these words is Yaz. To middle-aged men this means baseball player Carl Yastrzemski but to 20-somethings it is now the name of a birth-control pill. There's an old joke about the woman who marries a Polish man and how she got something long and hard on her wedding night. The punch line, of More About: Product , Steals
Milwaukee Misses Mark in Banning Bernie Brewer's Beer Mug
2007-10-03 04:45:00 Brian's initial column takes on Milwaukee 's ban of Bernie Brewer. If you ask people outside of Wisconsin (and perhaps many Wisconsinites) for an association for Milwaukee, perhaps the most common answer would be beer. After all, Milwaukee is home to many breweries, most famously Miller. That is unless you are a fan of Schlitz, which proclaimed itself, “The beer that made Milwaukee famous.” More About: Beer , Mark , Ernie
Latest Hardball Times Column
2007-10-03 00:21:00 Here is the latest column. Also, sorry the postings have been a bit sparse but my day job is too damn busy! I will hopefully pick up the pace soon at least until the end of the World Series. More About: Column , Times
Down the Stretch They Come...
2007-10-01 15:01:00 Coming down the homestretch in my high stakes league, it all came down to Friday's games. Though the baseball regular season ends tonight (Monday, and how about those Rockies!) for me in my high stakes league it all came down to Friday night. My closest challenger, who is a good pal a tough owner and even posted a guest post here on the blog, had four starters going Friday night. Our website More About: Etch , Stretch
Where did the Dodgers Go Wrong?
2007-09-26 14:47:00 The Dodgers had the second highest expected winning percentage in the NL West and had no chance at the playoffs. What happened? Following up on my prior post about the Postseason Odds Report, I wanted to take a closer look at at where the Dodgers could have made a big difference. I think it comes down to James Loney and Matt Kemp. Loney vs. Garciaparra The first case is Loney versus More About: Wrong
Looking for More Contributors and A Reflection on the Past Year
2007-09-25 15:11:00 Some thanks to those who helped us out this first year. We are hoping to expand next year also, so read on. We had a very surprising first year this year (at least in my mind), and thanks goes to all of our readers. We had over 15,000 visits, and even got linked in the Boston Globe online as well as lots of other baseball and sports related sites. I can honestly say that I never thought we More About: Past , Reflection , Year
Link to Latest Hardball Times Column
More articles from this author:2007-09-25 15:09:00 Here is the link to my latest column. Defense-First Strategies. More About: Link , Column , Times 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 |
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