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Tempering Your Enthusiasm For Minor Leaguers
2007-06-08 19:35:00
I am sure that many fantasy players are now curious about how or when they can acquire the recently drafted players, dreaming of getting next year's Tim Lincecum or Chad Cordero. I once played in a league that allowed you to pick up any player at any time as long as they were under contract. That means that in that league you could pick up David Price as soon as he signed even though he never threw a pitch. In fact what happened was that the owners would snatch up these guys as soon as they were able. Occasionally this strategy worked, but more often it blew up in their face. Even outside that league, many players put undue emphasis on picking up minor leaguers.On his BaseballHQ site, Ron Shandler wrote an excellent piece on Thursday. He made the observation, that those in mixed leagues have no reason to be following minor leaguers. This is advice that I have long followed myself and intended to write today regarding the draft until he stole my thunder.In one of my leagues this yea...
More About: Thus , Enthusiasm , Peri , Minor , Erin

Part III--Josh Beckett
2007-06-08 02:39:00
Continuing my analysis of some big name players that I believe will continue on their current pace, thereby thwarting the wisdom of the "buy low, sell high" cliche, lets take a look at Josh Beckett .Of course, we first must consider the blister/avulsion, a recurring theme with Beckett. If your risk tolerance is low then by all means avoid him. But let's take a look at what can be expected if he stays healthy.His hit rate is 29% and his strand rate is 71% both about what would be expected. He has 8.3 K/9IP, 2.3 K/9IP representing excellent core skills. This data indicates that his performance is not generated by luck, except for possibly his Wins total; which in most cases is largely a factor beyond any pitcher's control.His historical record is interesting; 2006 clearly is an outlier, in terms of skills:2003: 9.6 K/9IP 2.7 BB/9IP2004: 8.8 K/9IP 2.8 BB/9IP2005: 8.4 K/9IP 2.9 BB/9IP2006: 6.9 K/9IP 2.1 BB/9IP2007: 8.3 K/9IP 2.3 BB/9IPSo what do we have?? We have a pitcher who had impr...
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Baserunning strategy, and "Infield in" redux
2007-06-07 22:52:00
Last night's Mets-Phils game was extremely painful to watch, and even more painful for Endy Chavez. For those of you who don't know, the Mets squandered 6 innings of shutout ball when Heilman gave up a 3 run job on a 1-2 count in the top of the 7th. The Mets rallied in the next inning, getting runners on second and third, with none out, down by one.From 30 years of data, compiled and presented by wallkoffbalk: http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/ searchhome teams have won at a 71.1% rate (59/83) when faced with that situation. The Mets pinch hit Julio Franco in the pitcher's slot. The Marlins did not play the infield in, even at the corners.Allowing the run to score while getting the out at first is a fairly win neutral play, with home teams winning at a 69% rate (306/442) with a runner at third, one out, in a tie game.If the runner at third is does not attempt to score, and the batter is out at first base, then with runners on second and third, one out, the win expectancy dr...
More About: Strategy , Redu , Field , Rate , Base

Roto and Babies - What to Do?
2007-06-07 21:14:00
First of all, I would like to thank Pat for the invite to contribute to this site. After many years of head-to-head combat in Roto it is nice to be on the same side for once. It's like Sylar and Peter Petrelli teaming up for a smackdown. And yes, that will be first of many pop culture references that I hope you get. If not...well, perhaps you should rotate an Entertainment Weekly in there with Baseball America every once in a while. Just a thought.My first topic is one close to my heart as it is a dilemma that I am facing for the first time in Roto. How can you be a competitive Roto player when you have an active one-year-old at home? More to the point - what do you do when your schedule cuts into your research time? Fantasy Baseball is a time consuming pastime - as any reader here knows, it is rivaled in online searches only with the never-ending search for naked Scarlett Johanssen pictures. And both can be quite satisfying and awfully frustrating at the same time. While you can r...
More About: Babies , To Do , Babi

Collective Action and The First Overall Pick in the Draft
2007-06-07 14:54:00
You will see this type of analysis often over the next few days, but I wanted to comment on it from the strategical side. To sum up: here is a list of the pitchers taken first overall in the draft with their win totals in the majors:Luke Hochevar (2006) zero--he is underperforming in the minors to date with an ERA over 4.Bryan Bullington (2002) zero.Matt Anderson (1997) 15 winsKris Benson (1996) 68 winsPaul Wilson (1994) 40 winsBrien Taylor (1991) zero winsBen McDonald (1989) 78 winsTim Belcher (1983) 146 winsMike Moore (1981) 161 wins(who incidentally was one of my favorite players and led me to one of my early championships in rotisserie baseball)Floyd Bannister (1976) 134 winsThere are some interesting items. Note that though McDonald and Wilson have relatively meager win totals, these win totals are far better than would be expected for any other draft position. Also, the performance of the first three guys on the list would clearly be worth a first overall pick if you somehow "...
More About: Action , Draft , Pick , Overall , The D