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Bunting Their Way to the Top
2007-10-24 18:40:00
The White Sox aren't resting on their laurels after a 72-90 season (in which they significantly outperformed their 67-95 Pythagorean W-L). Manager Ozzie Guillen has concocted an ingenious quick fix for all that ails them:Spring training won't be dull if White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has his way. As Guillen talked Tuesday about the additions of third-base coach Jeff Cox and bullpen coach Juan Nieves to his staff, he emphasized the Sox will change their preparation radically in an effort to improve dramatically from their 90-loss season."You're going to see a lot of crazy stuff in spring training, regardless of the baserunning," Guillen said during a conference call. "You're going to see hit-and-run [plays] when it's not a hit-and-run situation. You're going to see people bunting when it's not a bunting situation."Is there a worse way to improve a team that finished last in the AL with a .318 OBP than to give away outs on purpose? I don't think so, but if there is, I'm conf...
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Dubious Reasoning Strikes Again
2007-10-24 03:19:00
Tim Cowlishaw of the The Dallas Morning News thinks that the Rockies are probably going to win the World Series. That's OK. I mean, the evidence suggests otherwise, and as far as I'm concerned, it would be wise to pick the Red Sox , despite all the playoff crapshoot-iness inherent in a series of this nature. But it's not his selection that has me up in arms; it's the rationale, if one can call it that, behind his pick. Observe: It is because of their higher profile, their heavier payroll, their (alleged) home-field advantage and because of the general discrediting of today's National League baseball that the Red Sox are pegged to win their second World Series in four years. I don't see that happening. I'm not saying it's impossible for Boston to beat the Rockies. I just think it's unlikely for any number of good reasons. Here are 10 of them:You said they were good reasons, right? Just making sure, 'cause I'd hate for them to be bad right after y...

Deep Thoughts with Dusty Baker
2007-10-21 23:49:00
Dusty's return has already been a boon to BTL:Ken Griffey Jr. will become the latest of the exclusive 600 home run club to be associated with Baker ."I played with Hank Aaron," Baker said. "I managed Barry (Bonds) and Sammy (Sosa). Now Junior. People ask how they compare. They're all great. Are there degrees of greatness?"Yes? Not even sure what else to say here; the answer is just too obvious.
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Dusty's Back
2007-10-20 02:43:00
The Cincinnati Reds, a struggling organization that hasn't made the playoffs since 1995, have hired as their new manager Dusty Baker, a flailing manager-turned-ESPN-analyst who hasn't been respected since he contributed to the demise of the Prior/Wood combination. This certainly doesn't seem like a good move to me, the casual (but very well-informed) observer. Thus, by the law of zany Joe-Morgan-ness, Joe Morgan must think this is a good move.CLEVELAND ? Joe Morgan has one question for any Reds fan unsettled by Dusty Baker's hiring as the team's new manager. "People are going to criticize anything, but were they happy with what happened before?" the Hall of Famer wondered Tuesday night before broadcasting Game 4 of the American League Championship Series on ESPN Radio.Of course they weren't happy with what came before. As I already pointed out, they haven't made the playoffs in over a decade. Not being happy with the current management, however, is not justification for bring...
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Simply Maddening
2007-10-18 02:23:00
Bill Madden of the NY Daily News can't seem to keep his Joe Torre story straight. On October 12th, he wrote an article entitled:If Yankees drag it out, Joe Torre may stand a chanceThe blurb under this headline on the back page read:The longer Yanks wait to make call, the better Torre's chancesPretty self-explanatory position, right? Yet a mere five days later, Madden has reversed course entirely, penning a column which proclaims:Yankee silence doesn't bode well for Joe TorreIf you're having difficulty following, just try to remember that the longer the Yankees wait to make a decision, the better (or worse) Torre's chances will be.
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More About That Team from the Bronx
2007-10-16 06:02:00
IGN Sports' Dan Phillips has come up with a list of recommendations for the Yankees as they try to "right" the 94-win ship, with the premise that "The Yanks should wave goodbye to sentimentality." I can't argue with two of them, ("Let Joe Torre Walk" and "Sign A-Rod") but the other two represent the opposite of good advice:2) Let Jorge Posada WalkPosada is coming off the best season by an aging catcher in baseball history, which is precisely why the Yankees should let some other team get suckered into paying him the big bucks. Aging catchers inevitably break down into mere shells of their former selves, and what's worse, they do it suddenly and without warning. Do you really want to fork over a three-year, 45 million-dollar contract to Posada on the assumption that he'll defy one of the few universal truths in baseball and produce offensively well into his late thirties? Just ask Red Sox fans how that worked out with Jason Varitek. Just one year after signing their oft-injured s...
More About: Team , Mariano Rivera , The Bronx , Joba Chamberlain

Youth Gets Served
2007-10-16 00:07:00
If you're wondering how the Rockies have managed to extend their dominant performance deep into the NLCS, you might want to check out this out; Dan Bickley of The Arizona Republic treats us to an in-depth analysis of the series, explaining how exactly the Diamondbacks came to find themselves in an 0-3 hole entering Game 4. His conclusion:D-Backs show lack of experienceOh...is that it? Huh.To stay alive, the Diamondbacks will rely on Micah Owings, a guy who hasn't pitched in a major-league game since Sept. 27, against a team that has lost once since the middle of September. The odds are long, to say the least. And if you're wondering what happened to the team that won 90 games and clubbed the Cubs, here's a guess: The Diamondbacks finally are acting their age. Many of the mistakes made this series are blunders that young kids usually get out of their system on their way to the major leagues. They are no longer getting timely hits, and in 29 innings, they have led for only half an...
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Let's Do This One More Time
2007-10-14 10:27:00
I'm really trying not to post about A-Rod, I swear. But they're not making it easy for me. And by "they," I mean Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune.The Yankees need to let Alex Rodriguez walk. If they pony up to give him the extension he wants?even if it's more in the range of a mere five years and $150 million, not 10 years and $300 million?they will be ignoring history, not learning from it. You simply can't buy success in the World Series.You can't buy a World Series victory, no. But you can buy better players, who give you a better chance of winning. It's true that playoff success is largely determined by luck, simply because of the small sample sizes involved. But it's not entirely luck; a bunch of Little Leaguers wouldn't be able to take a Major League team simply because it's October, a time when talent mysteriously no longer applies. Moreover, teams have to make the playoffs before they can compete for the World Series, and adding (or keeping) a player of A-Rod's c...
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Clueless Joel
2007-10-12 03:30:00
The steady stream of Joe Torre -related articles has shown no sign of abating since the Yankees ' early playoff exit, and probably won't until his job status is clarified once and for all. These articles generally stump for Torre's return based solely on past success, or demand Torre's ouster on the basis that it's simply "time for a change." Only a precious few actually take the time and effort to examine Torre's on-the-job performance in an effort to determine his worthiness. The following, written by Joel Sherman of the NY Post just before the Yankees' defeat, is not one of them.Lou Piniella, the man George Steinbrenner wanted last year at this time rather than Joe Torre, just guided his team out of the playoffs, losing three straight games to a Diamondback team that scored fewer runs than it allowed this year.True, but if you think that proves that the Yankees are better off with Torre than Piniella, or anyone else, you're mistaken; it merely serves to illustrate how littl...
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More "Flop"-Related Fallout
2007-10-11 17:46:00
In the wake of the Yankees' 1st-round loss to the Indians, countless articles have been written about Alex Rodriguez 's alleged failure to produce (not to mention the innumerable Torre-related fare; I'll get to that later). So instead of posting about every single one of them which wouldn't be fun for your or me, I'll just let Newsday's Johnette Howard take the full brunt of my wrath:After this Division Series, when does every last holdout in the sport - the scouts who still coo about Rodriguez's picturesque swing, the "Yeah, but ... " seamheads who point to his fat numbers, the historians who are busy plotting he'll likely break Barry Bonds' all-time home run record in 2013 - just give up and agree this is what Rodriguez is: a guy who gets you to the postseason but won't ever win it for you.Never, Johnette. Never. Because not only is he the owner of a picturesque swing and an extraordinary statistical record, he also already has found success in the playoffs. He won't "wi...
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First-Round Flops...and A-Rod
2007-10-11 06:29:00
CNNSI is running a list of the top ten Division Series flops. A-Rod, of course, is prominently featured, despite the fact that there wasn't exactly a whole lot of "flopping" taking place on A-Rod's part. Here's his competition, with AVG/OBP/SLG listed for the hitters, and W-L record, ERA, and WHIP listed for the two pitchers:Derek Jeter: .176/.176/.176Vladimir Guerrero: .200/.333/.200Garret Anderson: .222/.300/.333Chase Utley: .182/.308/.182Aaron Rowand: .083/.083/.333Alfonso Soriano: .143/.200/.143Aramis Ramirez: .000/.077/.000Chien-Ming Wang: 0-2, 19.06, 2.82Ted Lilly: 0-1, 16.20, 3.30And then there's A-Rod:Alex Rodriguez : .267/.353/.467Which one of these things is not like the others? A-Rod's line wasn't exactly typical A-Rod, but it was still that of an above-average major league hitter. Everyone else on the list was flat-out awful. He wasn't even nearly the worst hitter on his own team; in fact, he was probably the 4th-best, after Cano, Damon, and Abreu. And he played be...
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Indians vs. Yankees: Not David vs. Goliath
2007-10-09 09:31:00
Paul Byrd is perpetuating a myth, and he must be stopped."They have Mariano Rivera, throwing 94 [mph] and carving up the strike zone, and we throw our blue-collar closer, Joe Borowski . He doesn't have the best fastball or the best ERA, but that's how we do it. That's how we've been winning all year, playing as a team and working together." --Indians starter Paul ByrdYou also throw your unhittable lefty-righty tandem of middle relievers named Rafael: Perez, and Betancourt. Both of whom had better years than Rivera, and both of whom do plenty of strike-zone carving and 94-mph-fastball throwing. Also, "Blue Collar" Borowski made $4.25 million this year. So give me a break; the world's smallest violin is already engaged elsewhere (Chicago, for example). The Indians weren't plucky underdogs confronting a big, bad, quasi-invincible Yankee machine; they might not have had the name recognition of their New York opponents, but they did have a collection of talent which won more games t...
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Somewhere, Kevin Kernan is Crying
2007-10-08 22:02:00
Ladies and gentlemen, the time which many of us have been awaiting, consciously or subconsciously, has arrived. Derek Jeter 's career postseason stats, as of last night's 0-4 (with a strikeout and 2 GIDP) performance, have fallen below the level of his career regular season stats, at least for today. Time to present the evidence:Career: .318/.388/.462Posteason: .308/.377/.469That's a career .850 regular season OPS, and a career .846 postseason OPS. Mr. Autumn-atic, indeed.
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I Dare You to Read This
2007-10-08 08:59:00
If your mind is still completely intact after finishing it, you're a better person than I. After having read the first 6 paragraphs (which are composed of 7 sentences and 4 sentence fragments, and I'm being generous) I am no longer the man I once was. Peruse it at your own risk.
More About: Read , Woody Paige , Dare

The (Tall) Tale of Two MVP Candidates
2007-10-08 08:12:00
Sam Donnellon of the Philadelphia Daily News believes that Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies should be the MVP of the National League. That, in itself, is not worthy of drawing special notice from BTL's ever-roaming eye. However, Donnellon's rationale, if one can call it that, is entirely deserving of our ocular attention.HE WON the argument in the worst way possible, Jimmy Rollins did. He is the Most Valuable Player of the National League because of what he means to his team, because that contribution was more crucial to his team getting to Game 1 of the National League Division Series than was the contribution of the other candidate across the field, the one who hit the insurance home run in Colorado's 4-2 win.So you're saying that Rollins was more valuable to the Phillies than Holliday was to the Rockies . This might be a valid reason to designate Rollins as MVP-- if it were true. But it probably isn't. Holliday finished 2007 with a WARP-3 (Wins Over Replacement Player, adjusted ...
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ESPN and Rocket
2007-10-08 03:17:00
ESPN.com's caption:"The cynics said the Yankees were paying Roger Clemens $1 million a start. By that math, postseason gigs are free. Good thing. Needing his best, New York didn't even get three innings."Needing his best for what? A win?The score is currently 8-3 Yankees. Hmmm...
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When Achieving the Appropriate Amount Just Won't Do
2007-10-04 08:33:00
Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union-Tribune has a reassuring message for grieving Padres fans: they didn't really deserve to be in that playoff game anyway.The fascinating 2007 Padres were not better than the Rockies. They were not better than the Diamondbacks. They were a baseball team built with guts, trades and clubhouse glue, wrapped tight in waiver wire. They overachieved. Still, they came this close to getting it done.Actually, they didn't overachieve. Their Pythagorean W-L record was 89-74, and their actual W-L record was 89-74. So, they pretty much achieved what they should have achieved, as far as translating runs scored and runs allowed into wins goes. In fact, BP's PECOTA projection system had them at 90-72 back in January. So they didn't exactly shock anyone. Now the Diamondbacks, on the other hand-- that's a team that overachieved.But, along the long way, Towers, general managing like a maniac on the fly, just kept bringing people in, finding a way. Look:Remember no...
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You've Read This Article Many, Many Times Before
2007-10-04 08:08:00
It's October. The Yankees are in the playoffs. Derek Jeter is still manning the shortstop position for New York's AL representative. Uh-oh.Kevin Kernan of the NY Post has penned an article which might very well be entirely copied and pasted from numerous Jeter articles of Octobers past. Waves of deja vu swept over me as I finished reading each sentence. I mean, presumably, good articles about baseball should have something new to say, right? Jeter is 33 years old. He has been in the postseason every year of his career. There's nothing novel about this situation. Did I mention that the title of the article is "Mr. Autumn-atic?"I don't have the heart to go through this thing line by line and express my disgust after each excerpt. So I'm just going to paste some of the highlights. Tell me if you've seen these lines before:The boxscore doesn't tell him he has had a good game. The final score is the judge. Win and it's a good day.Even though Jeter wears No. 2 on his back, he will...
More About: Article , Alex Rodriguez , Read , Times

The "Spoiler" Mentality
2007-10-02 07:59:00
As the end of every regular season nears, each non-contending team seems to regain its sense of purpose. Many of them have already been mathematically eliminated, but that nagging issue doesn't seem to cast a damper on their renewed enthusiasm. This enlivened commitment to victory has nothing to do with an improvement in their own playoff fortunes; in fact, it has everything to do with the opportunity to hurt the chances of others. I've always found this motivation somewhat baffling.It's not just the fact that taking pleasure in the failures of others isn't something which people generally boast about, or even admit. I mean, we've all felt that way at one point or another, so I won't pretend that the "spoiler" teams are any more morally bankrupt than the average person. "Misery loves company" is an old saying, after all. But how many of us go to work each day with the intention to make others miserable?I suppose that much much of the "spoiler" phenomenon stems from the fact th...
More About: Spoiler , Dontrelle Willis , Spoilers , Mets , Ality

Chicks Don't Dig the Strikeout...
2007-09-30 07:01:00
...And neither does Dallas News columnist Evan Grant:Forget the club record. The Rangers are on the way to becoming one of the most frequently whiffed teams in AL history. With their second strikeout this weekend, the Rangers will have the third highest strikeout total in league history, behind Tampa Bay (1,291 this season and still going) and Detroit (1,268 in 1996). Both were 90-loss teams. The moral: fail to make contact, and losses will mount.No. That is not the moral. There is no moral, except for the fact that the 2007 Rangers strike out a lot. As we told you already, high strikeout totals do not a bad offensive team make. The 2004 Red Sox led the AL in strikeouts, and runs scored. The difference between them and the current Rangers team is the fact that the '04 Sox also led the league in OBP, while the Rangers are about to finish 11th in that category. So it's not really the failure to make contact frequently which causes the losses to mount; it's the failure to reach base...
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I Say Matsui, You Say Matsuzaka
2007-09-29 06:30:00
Play-by-play man Gary Thorne, on tonight's Orioles MASN broadcast:In tonight's 5-2 win over Minnesota, Hideki Matsui provided Boston with 8 innings of 2-run, 8-strikeout ball.Hey, they're both Japanese, right? Close enough.
More About: Daisuke Matsuzaka , Uzak

Happy Birthday to Us (and Bobby Shantz, and Brian Shouse)
2007-09-26 22:37:00
Between the Lines turns a year old today. So, without further ado: it all went so fast, we've come so far, pats on backs all around, bright future ahead, etc., etc. But in all seriousness, despite our undeniably ground-breaking work, bad sports writing/commentary does continue to exist, (the nerve!) so we have reason to stick around for another year.I thought it might be amusing to see which baseball players share a birthday with BTL, in order to determine whether September 26th has always been a landmark day in sports history, or whether that has only been the case since last year. I found that the latter is the case; if and when the powers that be decide to open a blogging wing in the Hall, (and induct us into it) we'll become the first HoF'ers born on September 26th (although my initiative doesn't extend to checking the birthdates of HoF umpires, executives, and pioneers, so maybe not). The closest thing to baseball greatness September 26th can claim is Bobby Shantz, who was...
More About: Birthdays , Happy , Birthday , Happy Birthday

We Can Admit When We're Wrong Too (Sort of)
2007-09-26 05:47:00
This is a semi-retraction to my recent post on Tony La Russa's new idea: batting the pitcher eighth. Apparently (as it has been pointed out to me by some readers) some recent studies have shown that this strategy does in fact pay off in the long run, to the tune of approximately 2 or 3 runs per season. This is a very small difference, however, equal to about one extra win every four seasons. So maybe La Russa is on to something, as much as I hate to admit it, but it certainly isn't much, and can't be used to explain any large differences in the Cardinals' play this season.In spite of this retraction, I stand by most of my post. Whether or not the strategy is sound, the analysis in Rick Hummel's article is still insubstantial and full of holes.
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The Proverbial Dead Horse Has Been Beaten to a Pulp
2007-09-25 22:06:00
We've chronicled before just how vital a role "killer instinct" plays in any playoff contender's stretch run. At this point, it's almost laughable to suggest that any team without it might have a chance of playing in October; that's how far we've come. Yet, as much as we've done to counteract old, tired cliches about winning being a result of talent, mixed, perhaps, with a little luck, we grudgingly tip our caps to Newsday's Wallace Matthews, who can truthfully claim to have done more than any other member of the media to advance the notion that success depends entirely on desire. In fact, this idea means so much to Wallace that he's pretty much given up on writing about anything else. Here are the titles of 3 of his 5 most recent columns:Mets ' lack of killer instinct vs. Phils: deadlyLack of killer instinct could hurt MetsThese Mets lack a killer instinctHad enough? If not, keep checking this space for more breaking killer instinct-related news.
More About: Dead , Horse , Been , Prove

The "Mad Genius" Is at it Again
2007-09-25 05:17:00
I'm going to be very blunt about this: Tony La Russa 's new strategy of batting the pitcher in the eighth spot has got to be one of the dumbest, pseudo-intelligent, wanna-be innovative ideas I have ever seen. As I understand it, La Russa thinks it creates more scoring opportunities for the guys at the top of the lineup. The pitcher has to bat somewhere, though, and now there are just fewer scoring opportunities for the guy now batting ninth, as well as more plate appearances for the worst hitter on the team. You can stretch your brain any which way trying to come up with convoluted justifications for this move, but ultimately, it can't possibly help. Rick Hummel is willing to give ol' Tony the benefit of the doubt, however, proclaiming that La Russa's new maneuver is "a hit." It's not, and I'm here to tell you why.But this year, after some initial national (and some local) snickering that La Russa was "overmanaging," the method seems to have gained at least tacit acceptance. T...
More About: Genius , Rick Ankiel

Mark Grace on Causality
2007-09-22 22:45:00
Just when I was thinking, "Hey, Mark Grace , he's one of the four or five worst analysts in baseball..."It's no secret why the Angels are so good in the West. It's because they're so good against the West. They pound their division opponents.So, roll that one around in your brain for a while.
More About: Mark Grace , Causal , Ausa

Global Hysteria
2007-09-22 06:13:00
Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe is feeling just a little bit down about the Red Sox these days. Of course, they haven't been playing so well, but Bob goes a little overboard with the negativity, don't you think? But the truth is, there is no great reason to feel optimistic about the chances of the 2007 Red Sox. Who gets the ball in Game 2 of the AL Division Series? What if the bullpen doesn't snap out of it? What if Manny never Mannys? Will they manufacture at least one run? Does Papi have some late-inning mojo in reserve? Will J.D. do anything? Ever?No reason to feel optimistic, huh? What about the fact that the Red Sox, as I write this, are currently tied with the Angels for the best record in the Majors? Or maybe their fans could derive some solace in these difficult times from their +190 Run Differential, which also leads the Majors. Maybe their league-leading 3.88 ERA, which ranks as 2nd-best in the Majors, behind only the Padres, (with an assist from Petco Park) just isn't Bo...
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All Hail the Captain
2007-09-19 09:37:00
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks Derek Jeter is quite a ballplayer. I agree, but Nick and I differ on the extent of the Yankee shortstop's greatness:What a ballplayer.It has been a dozen years and Joe Torre still shakes his head in appreciation and awe."He took care of it tonight," Torre said of Derek Jeter's three-run homer in the eighth inning that enabled the Yankees to beat the Red Sox, 4-3, at Fenway Park. "I have been here 12 years and he has been here 12 years and when he was really young, I used to marvel at it, but after the first couple of years, it is not a shock anymore."It's only a shock with he doesn't come through.As great a ballplayer as Jeter is, he usually doesn't come through. Even if you count merely reaching base as a success, you still have to admit that he has still failed to do that more than 60% of the time over the course of his career. You shouldn't be shocked when it happens.It was a 2-and-2 count and Jeter was digging into the batter's box ...
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The Average American Household Now Contains .000000000000000001 Angels Pitc
2007-09-17 23:07:00
Keep trying, Kelvim; you'll be a household one of these days. And, ESPN proofreaders: keep up the good work.
More About: Household , Angels , American , Average

The Mysterious Case of the Disappearing 27 Points
2007-09-17 07:22:00
Is David deJesus ' career in jeopardy? Probably not, but according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, there's considerable cause for concern:Even David DeJesus isn?t sure how to evaluate his season.From one perspective, his .268 average represents a 27-point drop from last season and is the result of some atypically extended slumps.The flip side is DeJesus is just two runs shy of becoming the first Royal since Carlos Beltran in 2003 to score 100 runs, leads the club in RBIs despite spending most of the season as the leadoff hitter and sports an on-base percentage that approximates his career mark.Well, the runs and RBI are largely lineup-dependent, so they don't tell us a whole lot about Dejesus' own performance. Let's concentrate on the average and OBP. It's true that his lifetime average is .285, but fluctuations in batting average from year to year are often largely dependent on luck. Let's check out DeJesus' BABIPs (Batting Average[s] on Balls in Play) for the first f...
More About: Mysterious , Case , Points , The D