Mental HandicapMental HandicapNFL Analysis and Best Bets - Intuition Vs. The Football Black Box Articles
Week 19 - Matty Lives!
2008-01-10 10:24:00 Whew!Matty boy! I thought you might have hit a snow bank or something, I haven't heard from you since before the holidays....Anyway, I am most definitely pissed I didn't actually post my bets for the wild card weekend, I intended to spend my last $10 all in on a 4-team parlay which went 3-0-1 and would have paid off $60. Sadly I remain with only $10, and figure I should repeat the process this week. The spreads are huge so it's a tough call. But right now I like all the dogs to cover, possibly with the exception of GB and NE, who will probably destroy SEA and JAX, respectively. It's been an awesome year 1 for us here at Mental Handicap, and this post-season and offseason should be fun. My goal is to research my win % on the various styles of betting, perfect the Wave Theory and determine the optimum betting system and stick with it in year 2. In addition, Matty and I will have to figure out a way to rank the teams in the offseason to get the 2008 season ready to go in Wee... More About: Week , Lives
End of Season Review
2008-01-09 09:07:00 So it's been a while, and after placing some ludicrous but fun bets on Week 17 (and getting my ass handed to me in the process), I've abstained from all post season betting. Why? Because a.) I have zero historical data on which to base my guesses, and b.) anything can happen. I can pretty much guess that the Box would pick almost every underdog, too, but I still have no way to no. I have created no postseason module. That may be something to start for next season.Overall, I would have to say it was a successful trial year. I lost a marginal amount of cash in what amounted to an oddly disproportionate favorite-covering year, so assuming over time things revert to the mean (where underdogs have a very slight advantage), I feel like I'm on the right track. The Box is now able to pick based on "cost per bet", a feature added very late in the season and perfected in Week 15 or 16, so my expectations will be high next year for some serious cash flow.I will post results here in t... More About: Review , Season
Week 18 - Playoffs Change the Gambling Game
2008-01-03 18:01:00 Well I'm back, the holidays took week 17 away from me, but it's just in time for playoffs...So what to make of this?There are only 4 games per week in the wild card and divisional rounds, then 2 games in the conference finals, and finally the superbowl... All season long we've been picking our favorite games, but now our choices dwindle from 16 games down to 4, and in theory, these games should be harder to call. Let's take a look at the wild card round:jax -2 at PITSEA -4 vs wasTB -2.5 vs nygSD -9 vs tenPIT is a home 'dog playing a team that kicked their butts already this year before PIT lost Willie Parker. I agre with Vegas here, and think JAX wins this game. Same goes for SD vs TEN, but in this game the spread is a whopping 9 points. Will TEN get beat that badly?The SEA and TB games are more toss-ups, with the 'dogs in both games playing their best football recently, while the favorites are home and kind of eased into the playoffs. My gut says WAS finally hits the wa... More About: Change , Playoffs , Game , Gambling , Week
Week 17 - The Gambling Power Rankings
2007-12-28 23:33:00 These rankings match a team's performance to their statistically expected performance. They weight Sharpe and Alpha to come up with these power rankings: The Gamblers' Power Rankings 1 NE 2 IND 3 DAL 4 SD 5 PIT 6 NO ▲1 7 SEA ▲1 8 CHI ▼2 9 JAC 10 NYG 11 GB ▲2 12 PHI 13 CIN ▼2 14 DEN 15 TEN 16 ARI ▲3 17 MIN 18 DET ▲2 19 WAS ▼3 20 TB ▲4 21 HOU ▲2 22 CAR ▼4 23 STL ▼1 24 BAL ▼3 25 CLE 26 SF 27 BUF ▲1 28 OAK ▼1 29 NYJ 30 KC 31 ATL 32 MIA Here is the financial breakdown: Sharpe Alpha Beta Team Rank Rank Rank ARI 16 14 9 ATL 31 27 20 BAL 24 21 7 ... More About: Gambling , Week
Week 17 - Moneyline Seems to Be Money
2007-12-27 20:22:00 I bet some uncharacteristic moneyline bets last week - only teams that paid out positive dollars. Did it work? Well, my $5 bet on Chicago to upset Green Bay paid me a solid $15 or so, negating any other moneyline losses I took. Worth it?I'm not sure.This week, the picks are in, and I may do some of the same maneuvering: THE PICKS * considers lay in pick order 1. CHI +130 v. NO @Home 2. TB +145 v. CAR @Home 3. SEA +145 v. ATL Away 4. CIN -145 v. MIA @Home 5. IND +280 v. TEN @Home 6. DEN +190 v. MIN @Home 7. PIT -200 v. BAL @Home 8. GB -210 v. DET Away 9. JAC +280 v. HOU Away 10. NYJ -270 v. KC Away 11. SD -370 v. OAK @Home 12. PHI -340 v. BUF Away 13. DAL +430 v. WAS Away 14. ARI -260 v. STL Away My top 3 picks are all in the money picks. I like betting the upset, but this week is pretty unpredictable. I'm not sure what I'm doing yet, but I do know I'm not risking b... More About: Money , Week
Week 17 - Wacky Week 17 Best Bets
2007-12-27 18:17:00 Vegas has gone nuts. Abso-frikkin-nuts. Indy +6.5 at home against Tennessee? Just because the Titans need the win? Really? I think Tom Moore could suit up and receive passes from Sorgi and they could STILL beat the Titans this week. Don't forget, while the marquee players only play for a quarter or two, the real money players on the front lines almost never sit. That means even when they run with Kenton Keith, Indy will be running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, no matter what Albert Haynesworth is doing.Jacksonville +6? Seattle +2.5? And, on the flip side, Cleveland -9???? Giving nine points? Since Week 8, all but one of their games have been settled by less than 9. The one "blowout" win? They beat Houston by 10 in week 12. How likely is it that they win by 9 at this point? I would say pretty freaking unlikely. And so would the box.Here are the early picks: THE PICKS Over / * considers lay in pick order Under 1. TB +2.5... More About: Bets
Week 16 - Box's Results
2007-12-27 18:09:00 Here are the results for Week 16. I'm rushing through the week to get on to this week which appears to be a crazy week to me. Results for Week 16 Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 wins $0.00 Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 wins $0.00 Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 wins $20.50 Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 wins $37.39 Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 wins $0.00 Results for Week 16 Bet Totals: $40.00 Potential Winnings: $62.89 Payouts: $57.89 Actual Profit: $17.89 %s: Week 16 44.73% I would say, all in all, I can't complain with my results. It was an odd betting week, but I still did pretty well. Had I stuck to my odds method, I would have been closer to a 62.79% win week (Box suggested I double the SF bet, and place some different parlays) winning $154.58 on bets of $94.96. I'll give up the 20...
Week 16 - Box's Final Bets
2007-12-27 18:06:00 I have a LOT of catching up to do. The holidays are pure craziness, so bear with me, some of these posts are coming very late. Here are the final bets I placed for Week 16 - it could have been a better week had I bet my one-two as the box suggested, but as it's late in the season, I'm happy just to get by at this point. Here are the bets: Bets for Week 16 Moneyline: BUF (120) v. NYG - $5.00 to win $6.00 Moneyline: KC (180) v. DET - $5.00 to win $9.00 Moneyline: CHI (310) v. GB - $5.00 to win $15.50 Spread: SF +6 (-115) v. TB - $20.00 to win $17.39 Parlay: STL +13.5 (-110) v. PIT, SF +12 (-115) v. TB, CIN +9 (-125) v. CLE, DEN +14.5 (-110) v. SD - $5.00 to win $15.00 I love playing these positive moneylines on what clearly look like mismatches. Buffalo is the superior team (though, sadly, it doesn't pay out), and KC and Chicago are nice longshot bets. The single spread bet felt like a longshot to me, but the Box says and I do. ... More About: Final
Week 16 - Basket of Eggs - Capper's Final Picks
2007-12-22 08:34:00 I am leaning heavily on TB and MIN this week. In fact, I doubled my wager amount this week 2, so basically if they go down, my season is over. Only one week left, though, so might as well, right?3-team Parlay: [CLE -3 v CIN -- TB -6 v SF -- BUF +3 v NYG]4-team Teaser: 2. [TB 0 v SF -- TN -2.5 v NYJ -- GB -2.5 v CHI -- MIN -0.5 v WAS] 3. [TB 0 v SF -- CLE +3 v CIN -- SD -2.5 vs DEN -- MIN -0.5 v WAS]Single-Game: 4. TB -6 v SF 5. MIN -6.5 v WASSo there you have it.... TB x 4 bets and MIN x 3 bets. Both against the box. I hope this is one of my weeks.TMC More About: Eggs , Basket , Final , Week
Week 16 - True Win Percentages, Sighs Abound
2007-12-20 18:31:00 So as I mentioned in my last post, I found a major flaw in my programming. A major flaw. What was it you ask? Let me tell you and rant about my moron-acy.On a weekly basis, I enter the scores into the Box to update my performance. I went to enter the scores from Week 15 and update my performance when I noticed something odd happened -- my picks changed. Magic? I think not. So I deleted the scores and checked my picks, and they were back to the picks I posted here. "Hmmm..." I thought. That's odd. So I went back through my math, picking around, thinking maybe I just entered something wrong. Lo and behold, my stupidocity went far beyond a wrong entry.Part of my pick algorithm figures in historical pick win percentages. For instance, if my number 6 pick historically is winning 60% and my number 5 pick is winning 50%, the Box is trained to say, "that's weird, we should switch them". As more data comes in, the Box should get more accurate as the best picks float to the top... More About: True , Sighs , Ages
Week 16 - DELTA FORCE 2007 - Vegas vs. the Capper
2007-12-20 02:51:00 Brutal Week 15, reminds me of week 5. Maybe I avoid weeks ending in 5 next season? Anyway, here's the breakdown for Week 16:VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF. PIT (-7.5) at STL.....PIT(-7) ..................... 0.5DAL (-11)at CAR...... DAL(-14) .................... 3.0CLE(-3.0) at CIN..... CLE (-6) .................... 3.0GB(-9.0) at CHI...... GB(-14) ..................... 5.0HOU (+7.0) at IND.... HOU (+6)..................... 1.0KC (+5.0) at DET..... KC (+6)...................... 1.0NYG(-3) at BUF....... NYG (+2)..................... 5.0OAK (+13) at JAX..... JAX (-9)..................... 4.0PHI (+3) at NO....... PHI (+3)..................... 0.0ATL (-10) at ARI..... ATL (+9)..................... 1.0TB (-7) at SF........ TB(-11)...................... 4.0MIA (+22) at NE...... MIA (+12).................... 10.0BAL (+8) at SEA...... BAL (+6)..................... 2.0NYJ (+8.5) at TEN.... NYJ (+7)..................... 1.5WAS (+6.5) at MIN.... WAS(+5)............... More About: Force , Delta , Vegas
Week 16 - The Rankings - Big Jumps, Small Brains
2007-12-19 23:01:00 So the rankings are in for Week 16 (overall, beta, alpha, Sharpe). The story? Small minds are making big jumps. Here are the overall rankings: The Gamblers' Power Rankings 1 NE 2 IND 3 DAL 4 GB 5 PIT 6 SD ▲4 7 SEA ▼1 8 JAC ▲1 9 MIN ▼2 10 CLE ▲1 11 TB ▲4 12 HOU ▲2 13 NYG ▼5 14 PHI ▲2 15 NO ▲2 16 CIN ▼3 17 DET ▼5 18 WAS ▲2 19 ARI ▼1 20 OAK ▼1 21 TEN ▲2 22 CAR ▼1 23 DEN ▼1 24 NYJ 25 BUF ▲1 26 CHI ▼1 27 STL 28 SF ▲2 29 BAL ▼1 30 KC ▼1 31 MIA ▲1 32 ATL ▼1 The movement outside of the top 5 is ridiculous. The San Diego Chargers have finally made a leap up the ranks, since they've started ... More About: Brains
Week 16 - Box's Broken But Still Beautiful
2007-12-19 08:44:00 Here are this week's picks, I'll have commentary in the next day or so: THE PICKS Over / * considers lay in pick order Under 1. SF +7 v. TB @Home - Bet Soon 40.0 2. CIN +3 v. CLE @Home - Bet Soon 42.5 3. BAL +8 v. SEA Away 41.5 4. HOU +7 v. IND Away x2! - Bet Soon 42.5 5. CAR +11 v. DAL @Home 40.0 6. DEN +8 v. SD Away 43.5 7. STL +7.5 v. PIT @Home 40.0 8. BUF +3 v. NYG @Home - Bet Soon 42.0 9. OAK +13 v. JAC Away - Bet Soon 42.0 10. MIA +22 v. NE Away - Bet Soon 41.0 11. CHI +9 v. GB @Home - Bet Soon 43.5 12. WAS +6.5 v. MIN Away 42.0 13. KC +5 v. DET Away 38.5 14. ATL +10 v. ARI Away - Bet Soon 37.5 15. PHI +3 v. NO Away - Bet Soon 43.0 16. NYJ +8.5 v. TEN Away 40.5 It's an ALL DOG week, which could easily blow up in my f... More About: Beautiful , Week , Broken
Week 15 - Box's Results
2007-12-19 08:40:00 I am WAY behind on my posts this week. In part because of travel. But more importantly, I discovered what could amount to a major glitch in the Box's programming. Suffice to say, I have been running ragged looking for a way to fix it. My confidence is fairly low right now, but the picks still haven't let me down, so something is going right. Just not as right as I hoped.Here are the results from last week: Results for Week 15 Spread: HOU +1 (-110) v. DEN - $20.19 wins $38.54 Spread: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB - $23.42 wins $0.00 Spread: JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT - $16.75 wins $31.98 Spread: OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND - $17.14 wins $32.72 Parlay: ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN - $20.00 wins $0.00 Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v. TEN, WAS +4.5 (-110) v. NYG, JAC +3.5 (-110) v. PIT, ATL +13.5 (-110) v. TB, OAK +10.5 (-110) v. IND, HOU +1.5 (-110) v. DEN, CHI +10 (-110) v. MIN - $7.50 wins $0.00 Parlay: KC +4 (-115) v....
Week 15 - Bad feelings justified - Weekly Roundup
2007-12-17 17:57:00 This is one of those weeks I just shouldn't have bet. I had no confidence in my picks going in, and it turns out for good reason. One thing I should know by now, is that parlays are hard to win anyways, let alone when you don't trust the teams you've included. Note to self: On iffy weeks, stick to single-game bets.Onto the analysis...The Good:1. JAX +3 vs PIT- Well, well. JAX actually went into PIT and won. I had a good feeling about this game initially, but then faltered until I saw the box agreed with me. Glad I stuck with it, unfortuantely they were in parlays with crap. Moving forward I love this team to keep winning. Who's left on their schedule?2. NO -3.5 vs ARI- This game scared the crap out of me, but NO pulled it out. Seems like they have rediscovered their 2006 form, and should be a good bet the last couple of weeks. ARI continues to disappoint, and should be a good team to bet against the rest of the way.3. GB - 8.5 vs STL- GB has been such a good bet this ... More About: Roundup , Week , Weekly , Feelings , Justified
Week 15 - Parlays for All My Men (Final Picks)!
2007-12-14 19:51:00 So it's a parlay kind of week. Kudos to Matty for throwing caution to the wind and betting your entire chip stack. Takes some extra large underwear to do that. Also, congrats on being one for one, I saw HOU kicked butt last night.This week I'm doing 3 parlays and a teaser, none of them big. I have little conviction this week in the picks, so it's not the week for long-shots.3-team parlay, pays 6 to 1:[SEA -7.5 vs CAR -- NO -4 vs ARI -- IND -10 vs OAK];[BAL -3 vs MIA -- ATL -13.5 vs TB -- MIN -10 vs CHI];[JAX +3 vs PIT -- GB -8.5 vs STL -- SEA -7.5 vs CAR];4-team teaser, pays 3 to 1:[GB -2.5 vs STL -- SEA -4 vs CAR -- MIN -4 vs CHI -- ATL -19.5 vs TB]I'm putting a lot of faith in my #1 pick, SEA and the Box's #1 pick, ATL. More About: Final , Week
Week 15 - The "Who Cares" Moneyline Best Bets
2007-12-14 00:00:00 Just FYI, here are the top moneyline picks this week. Not that I'll bet them, but here they are: THE PICKS * considers lay in pick order 1. NO -190 v. ARI Away 2. TEN -200 v. KC @Home 3. JAC +190 v. PIT Away 4. CLE -245 v. BUF Away 5. BAL -180 v. MIA @Home 6. NYG -210 v. WAS Away 7. MIN -550 v. CHI Away 8. GB -460 v. STL @Home 9. SEA -330 v. CAR @Home 10. SD -460 v. DET Away 11. CIN -400 v. SF @Home 12. DAL -500 v. PHI Away 13. IND -600 v. OAK @Home Great chance to make some bucks on the Jacksonville game - the Box predicts the rare underdog win. Almost double your money! More About: Week , Bets
Week 15 - Box's Final Bets - Bet Your House
2007-12-13 20:02:00 So this week, I'm taking some risks. Some big risks. Calculated, but big. I'm betting almost 100% of my bankroll. My bets total $110 of my $136 bankroll.My reasoning is based on the following statistics: cost per bet (which I fixed), and win percentage. While these are inexorably linked mathematically, I'm risk averse, so I don't quite trust my own winnings. I wanted to give myself a weekly shot at the big ticket win without risking much percentage-wise.My theoretically best bet combination, which I'm sure will change as I get more data points, looks like this (with "asset allocations"):1.) 4 Individual Spread Bets - 70.5%2.) "Top 2" Team Parlay (with "Wacky Friday" vig if I can get it) - 18%3.) "Top 7" Team Parlay - 7%4.) "Top 9" Team Parlay - 4.5%I'm well diversified, though there is a lot of duplication in the parlays. I've given some serious thought to switching out the 7 team parlay with a 7 team 6 point teaser (you'll see why in the win percentages below), but t... More About: House , Final , Week
Week 15 - What's that uncomfortable feeeling? Oh, it's my bets
2007-12-13 17:45:00 Well Excelius, another week where we are staring each other down from opposite sides of the fence. A chain link fence, really. 'Cause if it were one of those wooden ones we couldn't see through it and would mostly be staring down lumber instead of each other... but I digress.Yes... Staring each other down. I've got 9 games I'm interested in, first the ones we agree on:1. ATL +13.5 vs TB - Earlier in the week I would have bet the other way, but then the coach quit, players were on the airwaves pissed as all get-out (which is a lot, i'm told), the spread shifted 3.5 points and The Box predicted an ATL cover. I'm on board, my friend.This one could work straight up, or in a teaser, pushing the spread to +19.5. I wouldn't put them in a parlay since the risk of this team simply falling apart is too high to link them with other games.2. JAX +3.5 vs PIT- This game is making me more and more nervous. NE beat PIT using the spread offense, and completely avoiding running into PIT... More About: Week , Bets
Week 15 - Atlanta's crazy spread shift - Petrino Screws TB
2007-12-13 03:22:00 Mattyboy, you must not have heard.... ATL's head coach up and quit yesterday, and joined up with U of Arkansas. This caused everyone to bet big on TB, but I think your pick is correct. ATL's players are not sad, they are pissed. REALLY pissed. I haven't checked any data on this, but I feel like teams play well in game 1 of an interim coach's tenure, too. I think ATL plays out of it's mind and keeps this game close. I'm gonna wait until tomorrow and hope the line keeps jumping.TMC More About: Crazy , Week , Shift , Spread
Week 15 - Best Bets
2007-12-13 00:21:00 This week, the lines have been all over the place. And I do mean EVERYWHERE. I think one fell out of my grundle this morning. Atlanta/TB opened at TB -10, and bounced to -14 by today. Injury? Probably. 4 points? Ridiculous.Here are this week's top picks: THE PICKS Over / * considers lay in pick order Under 1. ATL +13.5 v. TB Away 40.0 2. HOU +1 v. DEN @Home 40.0 3. OAK +10.5 v. IND @Home 41.5 4. JAC +3.5 v. PIT Away 43.5 5. KC +4 v. TEN @Home 39.0 6. WAS +4.5 v. NYG Away 41.0 7. CHI +10 v. MIN Away - Bet Soon 42.0 8. NO -3.5 v. ARI @Home 41.0 9. BUF +5.5 v. CLE Away 43.5 10. DET +10 v. SD Away - Bet Soon 42.5 11. SF +8.5 v. CIN @Home 38.5 12. CAR +7 v. SEA @Home - Bet Soon 39.5 13. MIA +3.5 v. BAL @Home 37.0 14. STL +9.5 v. GB @Home 41.0 15. PHI +10 v. ... More About: Week , Bets
Week 15 - Travelling for Work Blows, Gambling Power Ranks Do Not
2007-12-12 18:16:00 So it's been a hard week to get posts and work done on the road, so I'll be brief. Here are the overall Gambler's Power Rankings (based on financial algorithms), followed by the Sharpe, Alpha, and Beta ranks for the week. The Gamblers' Power Rankings 1 NE 2 IND ▲1 3 DAL ▼1 4 GB ▲1 5 PIT ▼1 6 SEA 7 NYG 8 MIN ▲1 9 JAC ▲3 10 SD ▼2 11 CLE 12 DET ▲1 13 CIN ▲4 14 HOU ▲4 15 TB ▼5 16 PHI 17 NO ▲2 18 ARI ▼4 19 OAK ▼4 20 WAS ▲1 21 CAR ▼1 22 TEN 23 DEN ▲3 24 NYJ 25 CHI ▼2 26 BUF ▼1 27 STL 28 BAL 29 KC 30 SF 31 ATL 32 MIA And the individual financial ranks: Sharpe Alpha Beta ... More About: Travelling , Work , Gambling , Week
Week 15 - DELTA FORCE 2007 - Bullies run the School! (Vegas vs The Mad Capp
2007-12-12 17:30:00 It's Delta Force time again... where are the biggest differences between my predictions and Vegas ' spreads? Here we go...VEGAS ................THE MAD CAPPER............... DIFF. DEN (+1.5) at HOU.....DEN (-1) .................... 2.5CIN (-8.5)at SF...... CIN (-6) .................... 2.5*ARI (+3.5) at NO..... NO (-5) ..................... 1.5*ATL (+11.5) at TB.... TB (-12) .................... 0.5BAL (-4) at MIA...... BAL (-7)..................... 3.0*BUF (+5.5) at CLE.... CLE (-2.5)................... 3.0GB (-9) at STL....... GB (-11)..................... 2.0*JAX (+4) at PIT...... JAX (-3)..................... 7.0NYJ (+24) at NE...... NE (-30)..................... 6.0SEA (-7) at CAR...... SEA (-12).................... 5.0*TEN (-4) at KC....... TEN (-5)..................... 1.0IND (-10.5) at OAK... IND (-14).................... 4.0*DET(+10) at SD....... DET (+3)..................... 7.0PHI (+10.5) at DAL... DAL (-5)..................... 5.5WAS (+4.5) at NYG.... NYG (-1)........... More About: School , Week
Week 15 - MadCapping & Pregame Analysis
2007-12-11 17:17:00 This is the anti-Week 14. I am uncomfortable with most of these games, but here's my breakdown anyway.....1. DEN vs HOU: I regularly tout HOU as one of my favorite underdogs, and I'm going to add that Sage Rosenfels is a really good backup. He steps in and does almost as well as Shaub. DEN is a team that can't decide if it's really good or really bad, but I think their ability to run the ball and HOU's lack of similar ability gives them the slightest of edges. DEN -1.2. CIN at SF: I love picking against SF, and I see no reason for CIN not to go into SF and go bombs away. Where is the SF running game this year, anyways? CIN -6.3. ARI at NO: Arizona, Schmarizona... These guys kill me every week. They beat Detroit one week, lose to SF the next week and then can't cover a spread to save themselves. I guess this means I like NO. NO -5.4. ATL at TB: Continuing the theme of picking against ATL, I give you Tampa! TB -12.5. BAL at MIA: BAL is going to think they are playi... More About: Analysis , Anal
Week 14 - Teasers Pay Off Again - Weekly Roundup
2007-12-11 07:26:00 I seem to have found my niche. The teasers have paid off big-time the past month, and I see no reason to stop going forward with them. This was actually an overall good week for me, I would have had a sweep had DAL performed up to par.The good:CLE -3.5 - my only single game bet, and once again CLE continued to be a solid bet. This was my favorite game, as they were hardly favored against a terrible NYJ team. Turns out a garbage time field goal nearly cost me this one, but CLE put one of their own up at closing to cover. I had them in a teaser +2.5 (love to flip favorites to dogs) C'mon Vegas, keep underestimating the Brownies!IND -3 - I don't know why this game's spread actually moved down as the week went on, but it didn't matter. As I figured, Baltimore was exhausted after their tough loss to NE and just couldn't keep up. I may take a similar strategy with PIT next week, as they have a tough game vs. JAX and just got smacked around by the Patsies.MIN -3 - aaah... Thi... More About: Teasers , Roundup , Week , Weekly |
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