Algorithm BettingAlgorithm BettingI write algorithms which bet on the Barclays Premier League using sports betting exchanges such as Betfair and WBX. This site follows the progress of the algorithm model in turning 100 real cash into 1million in 5 years betting only on the Barclays Articles
Betting tips 12 March 08
2008-03-12 20:41:00 More Premier League action. I do like these midweek games to break up the week even with European action. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Aston Villa V Middlesbrough. Boro have come off the boil recently and Villa are holding firm. ... More About: Tips , March , Featured
Fed?s $200bn of liquidity creates financial ?fog of war?
2008-03-12 12:57:00 The Fed’s move yesterday to lend Treasury securities to primary dealers in exchange for mortgage-backed securities as collateral was the latest attempt to prevent the financial crisis deepening. Whilst it has given liquidity to the inter-bank market, it does nothing fundamental to restore wealth. The Fed has simply created a financial “fog of war”; intentional ... More About: Economics , Financial
Betting results 9 March 08
2008-03-10 21:37:00 Whilst the F.A. Cup seemed to spring one surprise after another the Premiership games were more as expected. Arsenal dropped 2 points at Wigan, it was Spurs’ turn to be West Ham 4-0 and Everton duly beat Sunderland. Good progress this week. Whilst not stellar returns the algorithm seems to be working out in ... More About: Results , March , Featured , Premier league
Betting tips 9 March 08
2008-03-09 15:47:00 Yesterday was a good day as all 3 match bets came in for all 3 funds. No surprises in the matches, though it could be argued Fulham did well to get their draw at Blackburn. Another 3 games today due to the magic of the F.A. Cup. How great to see Portsmouth now installed ... More About: Tips , March , Featured
Betting tips 8 March 08
2008-03-08 15:54:00 Success on the Liverpool v West Ham game but only a small profit. That’s the way it’s going to be from now on with these new lower risk funds. At the same time we should see the yield rise. 3 games today due to the F.A. Cup. Pompey have just beaten Man U after Man U had ... More About: Tips , March , Featured
Betting tips 5 March 08
2008-03-05 21:01:00 Today’s game is Liverpool v West Ham. Liverpool v West Ham. Liverpool have 3 games in a week and yet more rumours about ownership. West Ham need look no further than tonight for a better chance to turn over the Reds. Whilst Liverpool’s form has steadied and West Ham took a pasting to Chelsea last week their ... More About: Tips , March , Premier league
Betting results 2 March 08
2008-03-05 20:43:00 A fall back from the gains of the previous week. Whilst the 2 new funds (Balanced and Trading) are up since they started last week the Balanced Fund has fallen behind target. Still, it couldn’t be much earlier in the long slog toward the target £1m in 2013. Birmingham did beat Spurs as expected. Other ... More About: Results , March , Premier league
Betting tips 2 March 08
2008-03-02 14:05:00 Not a great day yesterday as even though most of the results went as expected the odds were not showing value and hence we went against a number of favourites including Chelsea and Man U. Birmingham did as expected and beat a triumphant Spurs. It’ll be interesting to watch Spurs over the rest of the ... More About: Tips , March
Betting tips 1 March 08
2008-03-01 15:53:00 A new month begins and we’re really now on the home straight for the Premier League. It should be one of the most exciting finishes for years as Arsenal, Man U and Chelsea have a real chance of taking the title. Sky Sports must be licking their lips at all that “Premiership action coming your ... More About: Tips , March
FSA sees credit repricing
2008-02-27 12:49:00 Today the FSA will tell banks that the current financial crisis will force them to change the way they do business. Hector Sants (FSA Chief Executive), according to the BBC, has said banks will no longer be able to raise money as cheaply again. Banks themselves need to give consideration to how their business models ... More About: Credit , Featured , Sees
Betting results 25 February 08
2008-02-26 15:13:00 A good week for the betting funds with 7 out of 9 winning bets. The 2 losses were both away wins which can sometimes be costly. However, as the new models are more accomodative of losing bets, both of these losing bets cost the funds less than 2%. The Aggressive Fund is going to have to ... More About: Results , February
Betting tips 25 February 08
2008-02-25 20:07:00 One winning and one losing bet yesterday. Selecting Reading at home to Villa did seem a little optimistic. Congratulations to Spurs winning the Carling Cup over Chelsea. I can’t believe it had to go to extra-time (and there was a lot of it!) with Spurs playing so well and Chelsea so badly. Today?s Premier League betting tips ... More About: Tips , February
Betting tips 24 February 08
2008-02-24 13:23:00 All 6 matches yesterday returned a profit. The Trading Fund earned the most, followed by the Aggressive and then Balance Fund. This is the order you would expect when results go the way of the betting. And conversely the reverse will likely be true when the bets don’t come in. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown ... More About: Tips , February
Monoline rescue? And what the banks are afraid of.
2008-02-23 16:33:00 News broke late Friday that Ambac, a U.S. financial insurance company, will be rescued with $2bn-$3bn of capital. How this deal will be structured is still very unclear and no doubt being hotly debated this weekend before any deal is possibly announced next week. But why should the banks even be interested in helping the monolines when ... More About: Banks , Rescue
Yield and pricing the unknown
2008-02-17 16:25:00 How useful is yield as a performance measure? There are many variables to measure the success of a betting system. These range from the simple ’strike rate’ showing the percentage of bets won to ‘yield’ which, by incorporating the potential loss on a bet, includes some measure of risk. It goes without saying that the longer a system ... More About: Unknown , Featured
Betting results 11 February 08
2008-02-12 18:11:00 The Fund took a massive hit due to Man Utd’s shocking defeat at the hands of local rivals Man City. I will post something on this later in the week as I incoporate the result and its significance into the algorithm model. The betting Fund now has a loss to date of -7% since the Fund started on 29 September ... More About: Results , Premier league , February
Betting tips 11 February 08
2008-02-11 18:29:00 A big loss on the Man City game as they turned over Man U at Old Trafford. That result has given some very useful information to use in the algorithm model and on first look I am getting some more sensible odds out of the model now. I will post the results later in the ... More About: Tips , February
Betting tips 10 February 08
2008-02-10 14:03:00 A good day yesterday as the Fund reached a new closing day high of £343.94. There were no great surprises in yesterday’s results and it strikes me that there have been no real upsets so far this season. Statistically this doesn’t make an upset more likely for the rest of the season but it will be ... More About: Tips , Featured , February
Betting tips 9 February 08
2008-02-09 13:40:00 Hoping for better luck this week though as usual there are some scary fixtures. The largest stake at risk and therefore potential loss is a Derby win at home to Tottenham. This alone would cost the Fund over a third of it’s current value. Today?s betting tips are shown and discussed below. To view a history ... More About: Tips , February
Betting results 3 February 08
2008-02-05 19:15:00 A loss this week of 7.42% as 3 teams which the algorithm layed won (Bolton, Wigan and Fulham). Whilst a losing week is never pleasant it’s all within the expected performance of the algorithm over time. However, this has not stopped me revisiting the algorithm model to add futher enhancements and try and squeeze out ... More About: Results , Featured , Premier league , February
Betting tips 3 February 08
2008-02-03 14:18:00 A slight loss on yesterday’s tips which means the results of today’s betting tips will give us a profit or loss on the week. Fulham v Aston Villa. Looking here for a draw or Villa win. Fulham given little chance of a home win. More About: Tips , February
Betting tips 2 February 08
2008-02-02 13:43:00 Today’s Premier League betting tips include a few bets that have me worried today. The major standout is Sunderland visiting an out of form Liverpool. Algorithm model and market odds plus calculated value and stakes are shown at the bottom of this post. A negative stake represents a stake taken in a lay bet. Matches are ... More About: Tips , Premier league , February
Betting results 30 January 08
2008-01-31 18:08:00 Another winning week for the betting Fund with gains to date of 231% since the Fund started on 29 September 07. The Fund is now 113 days ahead of its target balance at this stage in the bid for £1million after 5 years - see progress here. More About: Results , January
Betting tips 30 January 08
2008-01-30 19:56:00 A good day yesterday as all 4 tips were winning bets. Today’s betting tips are shown and discussed below. To view a history of all bets and the Fund results in detail go here. To see a summary of the Fund’s progress against the target £1million go here. Chelsea v Reading. Only 8% value in laying Chelsea so ... More About: Tips , January
Guest post: A ?Betting Exchange? Case Study ? 20% better profit?
2008-01-30 19:37:00 Betting exchanges claim that you will get 20% better prices in horse betting. Better prices to the horse player, simply means making more money from winners! Great, everyone would want that?if the claim is true. I decided to put the claim to the test! I created a scenario of betting the horses?at the track, online with ... More About: Study , Post , Profit , Exchange , Case
Betting tips 29 January 08
2008-01-29 19:58:00 I’ve been tinkering with the algorithm model over the past week or so. The result is lower risk and higher yield - the perfect combination. This is of course based on the results output from the new algorithm. In some way this goes without saying but I think it’s always good to remember this point. If ... More About: Tips , January , Featured
Betting tips 26 January 08
2008-01-26 15:30:00 Just one betting tip in the Premier League today as the F.A. Cup 4th round takes place. Aston Villa v Blackburn. Algorithm odds are very close to the WBX betting exchange odds with both sides offering value. We therefore back both teams and look for a result either way. HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake Aston Villa 1.90 1.98 4% £4.49 Blackburn 4.23 5.00 18% £1.50 More About: Tips , January , Featured
Interest rates are no solution
2008-01-23 02:38:00 Throughout the years governments have practised both Keynsian and monetarist economics. Neither have defeated the business cycle as the latest global economic crisis shows. Now, Bush and Bernanke have teamed up to attack America’s impending gloom with a two pronged attack of both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Bush’s $145bn fiscal injection combined with the Fed’s 75 basis ... More About: Interest Rates , Interest , Rates , Solution
Understand value, not price
2008-01-23 01:19:00 Just as confusion between value and price affords us an opportunity to profit from betting (see my earlier post) so it does the same in the property market. The price of property (and land) above it’s long term average has continued to widen since the beginning of the decade. The divergence is shocking however when you note how far prices ... More About: Price , Understand
Betting results 21 January 08
More articles from this author:2008-01-22 19:01:00 Here is the weekly performance of the betting fund after the betting tips for the football last weekend, 19-21 January 08. To see the detailed betting results for each game see the Fund page. With a gain in the betting fund of 12% over the weekend the fund is now 102 days ahead of target. ... More About: Results 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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