Algorithm BettingAlgorithm BettingI write algorithms which bet on the Barclays Premier League using sports betting exchanges such as Betfair and WBX. This site follows the progress of the algorithm model in turning 100 real cash into 1million in 5 years betting only on the Barclays Articles
Betting tips 21 January 08
2008-01-21 19:28:00 No surprise with today’s betting tip as the algorithm rates Liverpool in the number 1 position of all Premier League teams. Liverpool are backed and Aston Villa layed with 26% and 37% value respectively. I just hope the back office rumblings at Anfield don’t get in the way of the players earning their first Premier ... More About: Tips , January
Betting tips 20 January 08
2008-01-20 14:14:00 Below are today’s betting tips. A good day yesterday, the results of which I will post once all this weekend’s games are finished. Man City v West Ham. The algorithm still has Man City rated way below their form though they did lose last week. West Ham are priced much shorter than the market due to the low ... More About: Tips , January
Betting tips 19 January 08
2008-01-19 15:36:00 The midweek Premier league news suggests this is going to be a really interesting weekend for the algorithm. Harry stays at Pompey minus 4 first team players, Newcastle get Keegan and the Dubai Government is trying to buy Liverpool. None of which the algorithm takes into account as the effect cannot be reliably quantified. I cannot see the Liverpool news influencing play but certainly ... More About: Tips , January , Featured
Betting tips 19 January 08
2008-01-19 15:36:00 The midweek Premier league news suggests this is going to be a really interesting weekend for the algorithm. Harry stays at Pompey minus 4 first team players, Newcastle get Keegan and the Dubai Government is trying to buy Liverpool. None of which the algorithm takes into account as the effect cannot be reliably quantified. I cannot see the Liverpool news influencing play but certainly ... More About: Tips , January
Lucky apples
2008-01-18 01:49:00 A story about how a winning streak can fool and lead to a mispricing of risk. Rare as apples When I was a young lad I remember holding an apple and wondering, in one of my more philosophical moments, how remote the chances were that I should be holding this particular apple. It was a French apple and ... More About: Apples , Featured , Lucky , Luck
Lucky apples
2008-01-18 01:49:00 A story about how a winning streak can fool and lead to a mispricing of risk. Rare as apples When I was a young lad I remember holding an apple and wondering, in one of my more philosophical moments, how remote the chances were that I should be holding this particular apple. It was a French apple and ... More About: Apples , Featured , Lucky , Luck
I love economics
2008-01-17 20:35:00 Since I first began studying this subject i’ve always been stimulated by it. Now, has never been such an interesting time to follow this subject. Explosion of debt and living beyond our means The developed world, mostly the U.S. and U.K., since the 1980’s have been spending beyond their means. We’ve done it by using debt with ... More About: Economics , Love
I love economics
2008-01-17 20:35:00 Since I first began studying this subject i’ve always been stimulated by it. Now, has never been such an interesting time to follow this subject. Explosion of debt and living beyond our means The developed world, mostly the U.S. and U.K., since the 1980’s have been spending beyond their means. We’ve done it by using debt with ... More About: Economics , Love
Premier League team ratings update
2008-01-14 22:15:00 There are no changes in the top 9 ranking teams this week with Liverpool remaining top and Derby bottom. The most significant move is Newcastle falling to 19th place after their 6-0 loss to Man U. This may seem overdone but while they are without a manager they are there for the opposition to knock ... More About: Team , Update , League , Ratings , Premier league
Premier League team ratings update
2008-01-14 22:15:00 There are no changes in the top 9 ranking teams this week with Liverpool remaining top and Derby bottom. The most significant move is Newcastle falling to 19th place after their 6-0 loss to Man U. This may seem overdone but while they are without a manager they are there for the opposition to knock ... More About: Team , Update , League , Ratings , Premier league
Betting results 13 January 08
2008-01-13 18:58:00 Very disappointing performance from Portsmouth who just didn’t look like they were there to compete. I hope they haven’t written January off already due to the loss of 4 players to the Africa Cup. The model takes no account of losing players as it only tracks performance. There is an argument for manual adjustment of ... More About: Results
Betting tips 13 January 08
2008-01-13 13:35:00 Quick post for today’s games. Quite a difference on the home teams odds v the market but I’m content with the odds thrown up. HOME   AB Odds   Ex Odds   Value   Stake   AWAY   AB Odds   Ex Odds   Value   Stake Bolton   6.75   2.84   -58%   -£5.83    Blackburn   2.20   2.80   27%   £2.33 Sunderland   7.11   3.00   -58%   -£6.04    Portsmouth   2.18  ... More About: Tips , January
Big gains!
2008-01-12 19:58:00 With no shock results going against the model, today saw a healthy return for the fund. The betting fund is now 93 days ahead of target. It would have been higher had Derby held out against Wigan but an away win was no surprise there. The model was just on the wrong ...
Betting tips 12 January 08
2008-01-12 14:18:00 And finally after the Christmas games we’re back to normal again with the Premier League fixtures. The model’s betting fund is currently 60 days ahead of target. Though as I only bet on the Premier League with this model it needs to be ahead by the end of the season as there will be no games in the off-season ... More About: Tips , January
Bookmakers and betting exchanges - a price comparison
2008-01-11 01:43:00 There’s never been a wider choice of where or how to bet. You can place bets online with traditional bookmakers such as Ladbrokes or William Hill or at one of the many betting exchanges such as Betfair or WBX. However, although the product is the same, consider the cost before you place your bets. And if you still use ... More About: Price , Comparison , Bookmakers
Betting exchanges - A new world in betting
2008-01-07 11:05:00 This post covers how the emergence of betting exchanges has allowed the public to keep a greater share of betting turnover and allowed a knowledge of sports betting markets to be rewarded. It also covers the concept of value betting and probabilities. Chance and probabilty All us punters have one thing in common. We are all trying ... More About: World , New World , Featured
Half-time in Premier League
2008-01-05 21:38:00 With the season half over I have taken a look at how the model’s ranking of teams compares with their Premier league position. As can be seen in the table below most teams’ league position is similar to their algorithm ranking. A ranking above the league position suggests all flare and no substance or plain bad ... More About: Time , League , Half
Alpha Fund dropped
2008-01-03 21:47:00 The Alpha Fund used level stakes and was a pre-cursor to the percentage stakes Beta Fund. Results over the past month have shown the Beta Fund to be superior and continuing to monitor the Alpha Fund serves little purpose. I am therefore going to drop coverage of the Alpha Fund and the Beta will just be ...
Going home
2008-01-02 17:32:00 Just over half way through the season now and the betting fund is ahead of target - see here. Today’s 4 games are the last fixtures in the Premier League until 12 January. The home teams are favoured by the model today which would suggest more winning bets than losses. However if Sunderland, Wigan or Man City win it will hit the ... More About: Home , Premier league
How to write your own algorithm
2008-01-02 01:28:00 When I tell people about how I bet on the Premier League the question I am most often asked is, “Er, what’s an algorithm?”. Well, it’s nothing more than a series of calculations. They don’t have to be complex, they just follow one after the other. The output from one calculation is used for the ... More About: Write
Happy 2008 fixtures
2008-01-01 13:07:00 The odds produced by the model for today’s Premier league game all appear reasonable. However, betting against Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham does not give me too much hope of a profitable day. It’ll be interesting today to see how the away teams get on as I cannot imagine there are too many players happy to ... More About: Happy , Fixtures , 2008
Another profitable month
2007-12-30 21:19:00 With all 61 Premier league games in December finally over the results for the month are in. Whilst a gain of +3.1% on the month is not going to change the world it does ensure the fund continues a 100% record of positive returns for each month since going live in September. You can see the ... More About: Profitable , Month , Mont
Beta Fund survives shock Man U loss - again!
2007-12-30 14:07:00 West Ham were the only team to do the double over Man U and Arsenal in 2006/7. This weekend they once again they dismiss Man U at Upton Park. Unfortunately the fund was again on the losing end of this match and suffered an 11% loss from it. However, just as in November the resulsts ... More About: Shock , Beta , Loss , Fund
December - just another month
2007-12-29 15:44:00 More football today with a further set of fixtures on New Year’s day. Who says they don’t earn their money! Looking back at previous results for the fund does not indicate December , with it’s heavy calender, is an exception to the rule. That is to say just because there are alot of games (and merriment) in ... More About: Premier league , Month , Mont
$14.7 billion dollar model
More articles from this author:2007-12-28 20:39:00 Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Indeed it’s almost up there with seeing into the future. Whilst I do not know what the current algorithm model will do in the future I can see how it performed in the past with the benefit of hindsight. A somewhat fruitless task but fun nonetheless. So using the existing model I use ... More About: Dollar , Model , Featured , Billion 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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