Algorithm BettingAlgorithm BettingI write algorithms which bet on the Barclays Premier League using sports betting exchanges such as Betfair and WBX. This site follows the progress of the algorithm model in turning 100 real cash into 1million in 5 years betting only on the Barclays 
Articles
Current team rankings
2009-01-24 13:03:00 With the second half of the season now well under way and just 5 points separating those in the bottom half of the table, which three teams will eventually face the drop? After a great start to the season, Hull seem to be going backwards. Tottenham on the other hand started badly but ... More About: Current , Team , Featured , Premier league
Dynamic bets
2008-12-20 22:14:00 Since I received an email asking how to adjust the recommended stakes for changes in Betfair odds, i’ve been working on producing more time relevant bets. With the help of Editgrid the site now displays recommended betting tips in an embedded Excel table. The table can be edited within the page to allow you to ... More About: Bets , Dynamic
Goodbye Harry
2008-10-30 23:05:00 With losses showing for all 3 Funds for October i’m already looking forward to November’s games. But before then I guess I should try and reflect on the month gone. It’s not great looking back on a losing month but it may be useful if it can highlight any obvious errors or show it was ... More About: Featured , Goodbye , Harry
Super September
2008-10-04 13:09:00 It’s been a very profitable month for all 3 of the Algorithm Betting Funds. Especially pleasing is the performance of the Championship Fund which had a poor start but has returned to the excellent form it showed in backtesting. The gains in the Fund prices for September are 59% for the Championship, 35% for the Premier ... More About: Super
Bingo Blackpool
2008-09-21 19:43:00 It’s taken 7 weeks of games to come home, but come home it did. Courtesy of Taylor-Fletcher and a 0-1 away win for Blackpool at Birmingham, the Championship Fund was boosted by 35%. The odds were 9.6 and the Fund wagered just over 4% after calculating the odds offered 82% value. Along with other winning ... More About: Bingo , Premier league
Back on track
2008-09-20 14:25:00 After the poor showing in the last week of August I was pleased to see September get off to a great start. The Premier Fund recorded a gain of 16.5%, the Championship fund contributed a gain of just over 6% and the Trading Fund made hay with a gain of just under 24%. A large part ... More About: Back , Track
A shaky start to the season
2008-09-13 00:21:00 It’s been 2 weeks since the last set of games and August was not a great month performance wise. The tips for the Premier League only just scraped a positive return of 2.84%. The Championship and Trading Fund did even worse with -23% and -31% respectively. It wasn’t great timing to double the stakes in the ... More About: Season , Start
Betting tips 30 August 08
2008-08-30 12:20:00 This week i’m putting a bit of thought into the Trading Fund tips. Dangerous I know, but I think there are a couple of opportunities to increase the returns and let the other tips generated by the model ride. The tips for the Premier League Fund stay as they are, it’s only the Trading Fund which is ... More About: Championship , Tips , August
Betting tips 23 August 08
2008-08-23 14:12:00 Hoping for a first win this weekend for the Championship Fund after 2 weeks of losses. That Fund now sits 10% below water. Looking at the tips shows there is one bet which if it comes in could restore the Fund to a profitable position. The bet is Barnsley away at Birmingham which at the time of writing ... More About: Tips , August
Betting results 17 August 08
2008-08-18 23:17:00 Gains for the Premier League Fund and losses for the Championship Fund left a net gain overall for the Trading Fund when the two were put together this weekend. Looking at the historic performance of the Championship Fund shows that a considerable amount of the gains come from a few wins at long odds. This ... More About: Results , August
Championship 9 August 08
2008-08-09 13:39:00 Here we are back for another season. This season i’m including the Championship in my coverage. The tips are now shown on the relevant pages under each Fund, links at the top of this page. I haven’t had time to consider how I will adapt the Trading Fund tips on this first day - sure ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Championship 9 August 08", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/08/ 09/championship-9-august-08/" } );
Championship Preview: Season 08/09
2008-07-25 18:10:00 Following on from the Premier League Fund, I have adapted the algorithm to the Championship . As well as adding profits, the addition of a second Fund should also reduce the overall volatility of total invested funds. This is Markowitz portfolio theory working its statistical magic. Volatility is reduced since the performance of the Premier League and Championship ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Championship Preview : Season 08/09", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 25/championship-preview-season-0809/" } );
Premier League Preview: Season 08/09
2008-07-19 18:42:00 Still a few weeks to go until the start of the Premier League for 08/09 but I thought I would lay out the expectations for the performance of the Funds for next season. After improving the algorithm, the greatest decision i’ve had to make is what level of risk to take. On the one side, increasing ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Premier League Preview : Season 08/09", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 19/premier-league-preview-season-0809/" } ); More About: Featured , Premier league
Monte Carlo forecasting in football betting
2008-07-04 17:47:00 Following the success of last season, my thoughts obviously turned to whether this can be repeated. Or more accurately, what can be expected from the algorithm betting model in future seasons both in terms of return and the variability of those returns. “Monte Carlo ” is the name given to simulations which make use of computer generated random numbers to identify the range ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Monte Carlo forecasting in football betting", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 04/monte-carlo-forecasting-in-football-be tting/" } ); More About: Football , Featured , Forecasting
Betting results 11 May 08
2008-05-14 17:26:00 Well, that’s it; the end of the season. A very profitable one apart from this final week. Whilst there was no financial gain for the Balanced Fund in this last week there was a lot to learn from the divergence in the market’s and model’s odds on the relegation and title games. Quite simply ... More About: Results , Featured , Premier league
Betting tips 11 May 08
2008-05-11 16:00:00 This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table. The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting results 5 May 08
2008-05-05 23:15:00 All funds gained this week with the largest win coming from backing Fulham against Birmingham. The best ROI came from laying Villa at home to Wigan. The Balanced Fund only managed 5 winners from 10 but still gained 4.7%. The Trading and Aggressive Funds gained over 14% and 12% respectively with 8 ... More About: Results , Featured
Betting tips 5 May 08
2008-05-05 17:00:00 Both Newcatle and Chelsea are on a high. Whilst Newcastle are only playing for position they will want to make the most of their current form. I can see an upset if Chelsea don’t get the first goal. I just hope Drogba doesn’t fall over as much. After all he is ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting tips 4 May 08
2008-05-04 14:30:00 Wins yesterday across all funds including a good win on the Fulham game. The Balanced Fund managed a gain of 3.2% on stakes of less than 10% of the Fund; a return on investment of over 30% which pushed the current yield up to 13.2%. This came mostly on the back ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting tips 3 May 08
2008-05-03 13:45:00 So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ... More About: Tips
Betting results 28 April 08
2008-04-30 18:28:00 No strange results in this week’s games after all; worth noting after all the hype that comes at this time of year. Birmingham nearly caused an upset - but didn’t. Although Fulham did win away at Man City, this result in itself is not too surprising given the recent form of both teams. ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 28 April 08
2008-04-28 21:00:00 I have Derby at odds of 12.88 in the Balanced Fund to win this game which means a back bet at the current odds of 13 on the betting exchanges. Given the value of just 1% this leads to a very small bet and is not going to mean a move to Monte Carlo ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 27 April 08
2008-04-27 14:30:00 Excellent fun watching the relegation race and the goals go in one by one yesterday. Birmingham were 2-0 up at home to the mighty Reds, whilst Fulham were down 2-0 away at Man City and Bolton up 0-1 away at Spurs. Then it was musical chairs and all change. Fulham somehow stormed ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 26 April 08
2008-04-26 13:45:00 Quite a lot to think about in today’s games. Aside from the title race potentially being won today there are plenty of matches which have upset written all over them. Theoretically there are 7 teams fighting for the last 2 Premiership places still up for grabs for season 08/09. Each stands a ... More About: April , Tips
Betting results 20 April 08
2008-04-20 20:19:00 A stellar week of results with all Funds gaining strongly. The Trading Fund performs the best again as it races past 100% growth with a yield of over 8%. The Balanced Fund continues a steady and profitable path with a yield now just shy of 11% and strike rate of 70%. Weekly movement ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 20 April 08
2008-04-20 13:18:00 Caught out by the early start of Villa v Birmingham so no time to comment on the games. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. AGGRESSIVE FUND HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake Aston Villa 1.45 1.84 27% £2.22 Birmingham 5.11 5.40 6% £- Man City 1.90 2.58 36% £2.93 Portsmouth 3.01 3.25 8% £- Newcastle 3.05 2.02 -34% -£2.73 Sunderland 1.85 4.60 148% £- BALANCED FUND HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake Aston Villa 1.50 1.84 23% ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 19 April 08
2008-04-19 13:41:00 It’s getting close to the end of the season now and this often means peculiar results. Whilst some teams will be trying 110% to avoid relegation or gain a European place, others will be winding down for the summer break. This can give the lower teams an opportunity to earn points where they never would ... More About: April , Tips
Betting tips 17 April 08
2008-04-17 20:17:00 Everton v Chelsea. Realistically Chelsea need maximum points from here if they are to stand any chance of catching Man United for the Premier League title. Whilst Everton haven’t lost at home in 2008 and are still chasing a Champions League place, Chelsea should ensure Everton don’t take all 3 points. We lay Everton according ... More About: April , Tips
Betting results 14 April 08
2008-04-15 18:48:00 Respectable gains this week across the board as all 3 funds turn a profit. The Balanced Fund continues to impress with low variance in earnings week to week and a yield now standing at 9.49% after 122 bets. It also managed 9 winning match bets out of 10 in this weeks games. As for the targets, ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 14 April 08
More articles from this author:2008-04-14 20:39:00 Final game of this week is Chelsea v Wigan. A foregone conclusion on the face of it. Chelsea v Wigan. This is probably down to how well Wigan can play. Chelsea must win to keep up with Man U so can Wigan really hold out? It’s unlikely but the exchange odds over-price Chelsea ... More About: April , Tips , Featured 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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