Algorithm BettingAlgorithm BettingI write algorithms which bet on the Barclays Premier League using sports betting exchanges such as Betfair and WBX. This site follows the progress of the algorithm model in turning 100 real cash into 1million in 5 years betting only on the Barclays Articles
Championship 9 August 08
2008-08-09 13:39:00 Here we are back for another season. This season i’m including the Championship in my coverage. The tips are now shown on the relevant pages under each Fund, links at the top of this page. I haven’t had time to consider how I will adapt the Trading Fund tips on this first day - sure ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Championship 9 August 08", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/08/ 09/championship-9-august-08/" } );
Championship Preview: Season 08/09
2008-07-25 18:10:00 Following on from the Premier League Fund, I have adapted the algorithm to the Championship . As well as adding profits, the addition of a second Fund should also reduce the overall volatility of total invested funds. This is Markowitz portfolio theory working its statistical magic. Volatility is reduced since the performance of the Premier League and Championship ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Championship Preview : Season 08/09", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 25/championship-preview-season-0809/" } );
Premier League Preview: Season 08/09
2008-07-19 18:42:00 Still a few weeks to go until the start of the Premier League for 08/09 but I thought I would lay out the expectations for the performance of the Funds for next season. After improving the algorithm, the greatest decision i’ve had to make is what level of risk to take. On the one side, increasing ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Premier League Preview : Season 08/09", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 19/premier-league-preview-season-0809/" } ); More About: Featured , Premier league
Monte Carlo forecasting in football betting
2008-07-04 17:47:00 Following the success of last season, my thoughts obviously turned to whether this can be repeated. Or more accurately, what can be expected from the algorithm betting model in future seasons both in terms of return and the variability of those returns. “Monte Carlo ” is the name given to simulations which make use of computer generated random numbers to identify the range ... SHARETHIS.addEntry( { title: "Monte Carlo forecasting in football betting", url: "http://www.algorithmbetting.com/2008/07/ 04/monte-carlo-forecasting-in-football-be tting/" } ); More About: Football , Featured , Forecasting
Betting results 11 May 08
2008-05-14 17:26:00 Well, that’s it; the end of the season. A very profitable one apart from this final week. Whilst there was no financial gain for the Balanced Fund in this last week there was a lot to learn from the divergence in the market’s and model’s odds on the relegation and title games. Quite simply ... More About: Results , Featured , Premier league
Betting tips 11 May 08
2008-05-11 16:00:00 This final week has thrown up some interesting odds on the betting exchanges as teams battle it out for the lucrative prizes at both ends of the table. The odds which stand-out the most for me are not any one team’s odds in isolation but the comparitive odds of the teams playing the potential title winners, Man Utd and Chelsea. Wigan ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting results 5 May 08
2008-05-05 23:15:00 All funds gained this week with the largest win coming from backing Fulham against Birmingham. The best ROI came from laying Villa at home to Wigan. The Balanced Fund only managed 5 winners from 10 but still gained 4.7%. The Trading and Aggressive Funds gained over 14% and 12% respectively with 8 ... More About: Results , Featured
Betting tips 5 May 08
2008-05-05 17:00:00 Both Newcatle and Chelsea are on a high. Whilst Newcastle are only playing for position they will want to make the most of their current form. I can see an upset if Chelsea don’t get the first goal. I just hope Drogba doesn’t fall over as much. After all he is ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting tips 4 May 08
2008-05-04 14:30:00 Wins yesterday across all funds including a good win on the Fulham game. The Balanced Fund managed a gain of 3.2% on stakes of less than 10% of the Fund; a return on investment of over 30% which pushed the current yield up to 13.2%. This came mostly on the back ... More About: Tips , Featured
Betting tips 3 May 08
2008-05-03 13:45:00 So here we are with just 2 games left now in the season and still so much to play for. The greatest value in today’s odds are away bets on Sunderland, Spurs, Pompey and Wigan which all offer greater than 50% value. However, due to a lack of consistency in my model’s ... More About: Tips
Betting results 28 April 08
2008-04-30 18:28:00 No strange results in this week’s games after all; worth noting after all the hype that comes at this time of year. Birmingham nearly caused an upset - but didn’t. Although Fulham did win away at Man City, this result in itself is not too surprising given the recent form of both teams. ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 28 April 08
2008-04-28 21:00:00 I have Derby at odds of 12.88 in the Balanced Fund to win this game which means a back bet at the current odds of 13 on the betting exchanges. Given the value of just 1% this leads to a very small bet and is not going to mean a move to Monte Carlo ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 27 April 08
2008-04-27 14:30:00 Excellent fun watching the relegation race and the goals go in one by one yesterday. Birmingham were 2-0 up at home to the mighty Reds, whilst Fulham were down 2-0 away at Man City and Bolton up 0-1 away at Spurs. Then it was musical chairs and all change. Fulham somehow stormed ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 26 April 08
2008-04-26 13:45:00 Quite a lot to think about in today’s games. Aside from the title race potentially being won today there are plenty of matches which have upset written all over them. Theoretically there are 7 teams fighting for the last 2 Premiership places still up for grabs for season 08/09. Each stands a ... More About: April , Tips
Betting results 20 April 08
2008-04-20 20:19:00 A stellar week of results with all Funds gaining strongly. The Trading Fund performs the best again as it races past 100% growth with a yield of over 8%. The Balanced Fund continues a steady and profitable path with a yield now just shy of 11% and strike rate of 70%. Weekly movement ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 20 April 08
2008-04-20 13:18:00 Caught out by the early start of Villa v Birmingham so no time to comment on the games. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. AGGRESSIVE FUND HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake Aston Villa 1.45 1.84 27% £2.22 Birmingham 5.11 5.40 6% £- Man City 1.90 2.58 36% £2.93 Portsmouth 3.01 3.25 8% £- Newcastle 3.05 2.02 -34% -£2.73 Sunderland 1.85 4.60 148% £- BALANCED FUND HOME AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake AWAY AB Odds Ex Odds Value Stake Aston Villa 1.50 1.84 23% ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 19 April 08
2008-04-19 13:41:00 It’s getting close to the end of the season now and this often means peculiar results. Whilst some teams will be trying 110% to avoid relegation or gain a European place, others will be winding down for the summer break. This can give the lower teams an opportunity to earn points where they never would ... More About: April , Tips
Betting tips 17 April 08
2008-04-17 20:17:00 Everton v Chelsea. Realistically Chelsea need maximum points from here if they are to stand any chance of catching Man United for the Premier League title. Whilst Everton haven’t lost at home in 2008 and are still chasing a Champions League place, Chelsea should ensure Everton don’t take all 3 points. We lay Everton according ... More About: April , Tips
Betting results 14 April 08
2008-04-15 18:48:00 Respectable gains this week across the board as all 3 funds turn a profit. The Balanced Fund continues to impress with low variance in earnings week to week and a yield now standing at 9.49% after 122 bets. It also managed 9 winning match bets out of 10 in this weeks games. As for the targets, ... More About: April , Results , Featured
Betting tips 14 April 08
2008-04-14 20:39:00 Final game of this week is Chelsea v Wigan. A foregone conclusion on the face of it. Chelsea v Wigan. This is probably down to how well Wigan can play. Chelsea must win to keep up with Man U so can Wigan really hold out? It’s unlikely but the exchange odds over-price Chelsea ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 13 April 08
2008-04-13 14:08:00 Good results yesterday. The yield on the Balanced Fund is back above 9% showing the quality of the earnings. A couple of great games today. I can see Liverpool hitting 3 or more past Blackburn. Man U could do the same against Arsenal. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 12 April 08
2008-04-12 15:21:00 No large discrepancies between the betting exchange odds and the algorithm’s odds today. The biggest risk is a lay bet of Middlesbrough at Spurs. A risk not only due to the exchange odds of 6 but also because Spurs can be so indifferent at times. Today?s Premier League betting tips are ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Team ratings update April 08
2008-04-12 14:23:00 It’s been a while since I discussed the Premier League Team ratings on the blog. With recent changes to the algorithm I thought i’d record the current team points which you can see in the table below. The variance versus the teams’ Premier League position is a measure of how well each team is playing ... More About: April , Update , Ratings , Featured
Betting results 8 April 08
2008-04-09 23:30:00 All 3 funds managed an increase this week. Both the Aggressive and Trading Funds showed strong gains and gained more than budget on the target £1million. The Balanced Fund showed a meagre increase and actually lost ground on the budget and now stands just 11 days ahead of it’s target at this stage. ... More About: April , Results
Betting results 8 March 08
2008-04-09 23:30:00 All 3 funds managed an increase this week. Both the Aggressive and Trading Funds showed strong gains and gained more than budget on the target £1million. The Balanced Fund showed a meagre increase and actually lost ground on the budget and now stands just 11 days ahead of it’s target at this stage. Weekly movement ... More About: Results , March , Featured
Betting tips 8 April 08
2008-04-08 17:01:00 Results so far this week have seen the Trading Fund advance the most. A win on today’s game will see all Funds positive for the week. West Ham v Portsmouth. Fresh from their win in the F.A. Cup semi-final versus West Brom, Portsmouth still have the possibility of a European place via the league. ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 6 April 08
2008-04-06 14:08:00 The results from yesterday’s tips split the Funds. Whilst the Trading and Aggressive Funds gained, the Balanced Fund sufferred a small loss. Ideally i’d prefer it the other way around since the Balanced Fund uses the pure algorithm in it’s latest form. Still, it was just a small loss and included 2 ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting tips 5 April 08
2008-04-05 13:47:00 It’s the first outing of the new algorithm today since the changes made during the week. It’s not as risk averse as I originally thought but the Balanced Fund is still the most risk averse of the 3 funds. As I continue to feed in historic prices from Betfair I will hopefully improve ... More About: April , Tips , Featured
Betting results 30 March 08
2008-04-01 18:42:00 The Newcastle fight-back against Spurs cost me this weekend. Looks like Kev’ means business after all. The Aggressive Fund stood by it’s name as it lost almost 12% this week, though it did gain 24% for the month of March . This fund is an incarnation of the algorithm which started in September 07. ... More About: Results , Featured
Betting tips 30 March 08
More articles from this author:2008-03-30 14:31:00 Gains yesterday despite my negative expectations. There are 2 big games today which could move the funds by a large percentage up or down. Today?s Premier League betting tips are shown at the bottom of this post with matches discussed below. Chelsea v Middlesbrough. Chelsea still have Man U to play at home ... More About: Tips , March , Featured 1, 2, 3, 4 |
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