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I'm moving
2006-12-11 19:35:00
Well, sort of. I'm moving from blogger to wordpress, so the site may be acting funny for a few hours to a couple days...
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Should "Steroid Era" players get into Cooperstown?
2006-12-11 08:45:00
"You get to the Hall of Fame mainly through the voting of baseball writers. I just hope that the writers judge the players on what they did on the field." --Donald FehrIt's easy to dislike Donald Fehr. Many people still place the majority of the blame on him for the infamous 1994 strike. He's the head of the players' union, so of course he's biased. He's only seen when he's arguing on behalf of players, and when collective bargaining rears its ugly head, overshadowing what's happening on the field. Nonetheless, after reading Fehr's comments about Mark McGwire and Hall of Fame voting, I couldn't stop thinking about what he said, and what it meant. Why should people vote in, or more to the point, not vote in a player? Is it fair to consider aspects of that player outside of what they did on the field? That's the question that every writer with a Hall of Fame vote (and many without) is asking themselves. I, of course, have no vote, but I do have an opinion and a theory abo...
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A Modest (trade) Proposal
2006-12-11 03:40:00
I don't usually engage in rumor-mongering like so many others tend to do when the snows of winter suspend the actual playing of baseball and encourage chatter about rosters and trades. I'll make an exception this time, though, for no better reason than that I'm bored, and I think I've found a reasonable target for the A's, and one that's actually being mentioned in legitimate trade talks. With Jay Payton signing with the Orioles for a surprisingly reasonable contract in this off-season of inflation, the A's have a hole to fill. Payton played good defense, was flexible in where he could play, and hit decently well as far as average goes. Payton didn't walk often, or take many pitches, but he could double in a runner with surprising regularity. When Mark Kotsay had to take a rest after back spasms hit him, Payton stepped into the centerfielder's shoes and played excellent defense. So how to replace the versatile and useful Payton? Fill the void with Ryan Church, I propose....
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A's sign Embree, Piazza
2006-12-07 00:21:00
According to the A's official website, Alan Embree is now the designated LOOGY for Oakland. He signed a two year deal, and it's not clear how much he's earning. I like this signing for two reasons. Most directly, he's a reliable leftie who is effective against both righties and lefties, though he has a reputation as just a LOOGY. Since 2002, Embree has had a ERA+ numbers of 204, 111, 118, 58, and 129. The 58 is a one year abberration that he spent with Boston and New York. Last year in San Diego, Embree posted a 3.27 ERA and struck out 53 in 52 1/3 innings, and only walked 15. Secondly, the indirect benefit is that it frees up Joe Kennedy to compete for one of the open spots in the rotation, so the A's don't have to look for a starting pitcher on the wild free agent market. ----- Also being reported is that Mike Piazza has agreed to a one year, $8.5 million deal to be the DH in 2007 for Oakland. Considering the market, and Piazza's age, I'd consider it a good deal in te...
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A new small market peril?
2006-12-06 11:18:00
After a discussion prompted by my roommate Tony, and after writing earlier about the ever-increasing amounts of money being doled out to free agents this year, something occurred to me. This market inflation will serve to hurt small market teams in more ways than being priced out of the top end players-for-hire, as usual. Not only will they not be able to retain their top players once they reach free agency, but arbitration is going to likely become a more popular option for players still under the team's control. With the huge contracts handed out to mediocre-to-above-average players, the comparisons for arbitration eligible players will be very favorable for them. Many teams will find it difficult to work out reasonable contracts with players to take them through the arbitration eligible years. Imagine this scenario, if you will: A 25 year old pitcher, after declining his team's contract offer of $3 million a year through his arbitration eligible years, takes his team to arb...
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Is the market out-of-whack?
2006-12-06 08:46:00
NameYears$ per yearAlfonso Soriano, LF8$17,000,000.00Carlos Lee, LF6$16,666,666.67Aramis Ramirez, 3B5$15,000,000.00J.D. Drew, RF5$14,000,000.00Mike Mussina, SP2$11,500,000.00Vicente Padilla, SP3$11,333,333.33Tom Glavine, SP1$10,500,000.00Greg Maddux, SP1$10,000,000.00Gary Matthews Jr., CF5$10,000,000.00Jim Edmonds, CF2$9,500,000.00Nomar Garciaparra, 1B2$9,250,000.00Frank Thomas, DH2$9,060,000.00Julio Lugo, SS4$9,000,000.00Juan Pierre, CF5$8,800,000.00Moises Alou, RF1$8,500,000.00Adam Eaton, SP3$8,166,666.67Randy Wolf, SP1$8,000,000.00Ray Durham, 2B2$7,000,000.00Danys Baez, RP3$6,333,333.33Woody Williams, SP2$6,250,000.00Dave Roberts, CF3$6,000,000.00Orlando Hernandez, SP2$6,000,000.00Jose Guillen, RF1$5,500,000.00Pedro Feliz, 3B1$5,100,000.00 That's a list of players who got contracts of at least $5 million per year. That's a lot of players getting big money. But are they worth it? As the free agent signings keep rolling in early this winter, I keep shaking my head at the escal...
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Sinins CBE update
2006-12-01 03:51:00
Lee Sinins got back to me, and he's apparently going to mail me a new Cd of his Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. I'm still wondering, though, did anyone else have these errors and problems that I found?
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Errors in Sinins' CBE?
2006-11-30 09:11:00
I've been using Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia (formerly the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia) for the past year or so. It's an invaluable program for anyone doing any kind of research on baseball stats. I ordered the newest edition, and I've had a ton of problems with it. The worst thing that can happen to a database of stats is that it's inaccurate, and that seems to be the case. I don't know whether I've received a bad CD, or if there's something else going on. For example, here's a screenshot of what the result is when I do a pretty basic query, asking it to tell me the top 10 home run totals from 2006: That's not even close to being right... And here's another example of an error: It's duplicating/splitting season data (as you can see for 2006), and it's not right, either. Thomas hit 39, not 26 HR, and his AVG was .270, not .229... I wrote an email to Lee Sinins on the 12th, when I got the CD and noticed the errors, but I didn't get a respon...
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MVP, but not an All-Star?
2006-11-22 12:13:00
So Justin Morneau won the AL MVP. I don't have a huge problem with that. I think Joe Mauer should have probably won it, based on his higher OPS and excellent play at the key defensive position of catcher. As much as I dislike the cult of worship of Derek Jeter, his passable defense and excellent offense this year put him in a position that he would have also made a good MVP. I think I need to go cleanse myself after typing that. Anyway, my friend Tony, a Twins fan, asked an interesting question. He pointed out that Justin Morneau wasn't selected to the All-Star game this year, but he was voted the MVP. He wondered how many times that has happened. As best I can tell, it's only happened ten times since the All-Star game was begun in 1933. I'll see if I can figure out why. Here's the lineup: (and a fairly good one it would be, if assembled as a fantasy team) Justin Morneau 2006 Chipper Jones 1999 Juan Gonzalez 1996 Terry Pendleton 1991 Robin Yount 1989 Kirk Gibson ...
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New Ballpark Pics
2006-11-14 21:27:00
After looking over the following pictures, I've come to a few conclusions: - I really like the look of this ballpark. It's brick instead of concrete. The rounded front of the stadium reminds me of Ebbets Field, or perhaps Shibe Park, the A's old home in Philadelphia. - The double-sided scoreboard is an inspired touch. Fans outside the park can watch the game during sellouts, which will be often due to the 30-35,000 capacity. - There seem to be no bullpens... - It fits in well with the surrounding buildings, and seems to just go there. If you look at the picture from the outdoor park towards the stadium, you can just imagine walking down towards the park, and having to take a breath as it comes into view. Very nice. - Notice the rooftop seats on the right field side of the park. From what I understand, they are on top of a hotel or apartment building. Also, the "ROOF TOP BAR" beyond the left field fence. - I'm not too enthused about all the shops, it reminds me ...
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Mark Ellis, anyone?
2006-11-03 00:26:00
The Gold Glove awards were announced for the American League today, and as expected, Eric Chavez won his sixth consecutive award, tying him for second most all time at Third Base in the AL. Mark Ellis set the Major League record for highest fielding percentage by a second baseman. Let me repeat that. Highest ever for a second baseman. And he didn't get a Gold Glove. Now, nothing against Mark Grudzielanek. He had a fine year in the field. A Gold Glove worthy year, actually. But Ellis was better. I applaud the voters for getting that far, as to give the 2B GG to a deserving candidate, and not just a mediocre fielder in a large market (Derek Jeter...) But if they're going to go that far, why not just give it to the guy who was the best? I'd draw this analogy; If Joe Mauer were to have hit .363 or higher this year, he would have set the record for highest batting average by a catcher (with 502 plate appearances, to qualify). If the Silver Slugger for catcher was then given to...
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Western League statistics
2006-11-02 00:31:00
This is a little out of the ordinary for what's usually written about here, but I'm starting a new project. I'm working on finding and compiling all of the individual statistics from the old Western League minor league from 1900-1937. This is especially interesting to me for a few reasons: - The Western League had teams in Omaha and Lincoln, and was the top minor league in baseball in the first decade of the 20th century. - I get to spend more time in the Historical Society looking over microfilm of newspapers. A good place to be in the winter, when it's cold outside and there's no baseball being played. - The stats seem to have been lost to time, for the most part, and I'd hate to see them disappear completely. By digging through old newspapers, I can save them from vanishing completely. - I hope to contribute to SABR's goal of compiling all minor league stats from all minor league seasons. It's an epic undertaking, but a worthwhile one. Minor league baseball is the b...
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Oakland's Year in Review
2006-10-21 02:23:00
[This is cross-posted here, and on Beyond the Boxscore] --- “I've come loaded with statistics, for I've noticed that a man can't prove anything without statistics. ” -- Mark Twain “There is no safety in numbers, or in anything else.” -- James Thurber --- Before I begin this sort of review of the A's recent season, I'd like to say that I'm as big a believer as you'll find in the ability of statistics to understand baseball. But I'm nevertheless amazed when, against all odds, something else happens. To me, that just means we need to look deeper, and look in a different way. With that said, here's what surprised me about this season. --- In 2006, Oakland scored 771 runs, and allowed 727. Their Pythagorean record was 85-77, second best in the AL West, behind Texas. They actually won 93 games, and lost only 69, an eight game improvement over the expected win-loss record. That was good enough to take the AL West crown. That eight game difference w...
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Another possibiity on statline graphics
2006-10-19 07:30:00
Here's another version of the statline graphic. I've included the BB/SO ratios, and EqA (a great way to measure a hitter, league average is always .260). I think I may be pushing it, and trying to include too much now. Let me know what version you prefer, and any suggestions you'd have.
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Statline graphic update
2006-10-19 07:03:00
OK, here's the newest look for the statline graphic I'm working on: I like how SLG and OBP are both shown as extensions of AVG, since AVG is incorporated into the stats anyway. I think it looks a little cleaner, too. I also eliminated the line for OPS, as it was redundant. It's also a more compact graphic, but it still allows for vertical comparison between players. There's some discussion of this over at AN. I've enlisted the aid of my friends there, and they've already come forward with some great suggestions.
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A better way to visualize hitters' stats.
2006-10-19 03:30:00
As I was poring over 2006 stats for the A's, something hit me. The lines of numbers that I was looking at weren't really giving me an easy visual comparison. I wanted to know how the hitter's numbers stacked up against his teammates, and the league averages. It wasn't easy to just glance at the numbers and see it right away. So I came up with this system. [click to enlarge] (I included all A's with at least 100 at bats, and Antonio Perez, just to show how awful a season he had...) The blue bar represents batting average; the green bar on-base percentage; the red bar slugging, and the brown bar OPS. The tick marks indicate the number of home runs hit. The vertical black bars represent American League average numbers for AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, in that order. So, for instance, you can see that while Nick Swisher had a below average batting average, his OBP was higher than the league median, as were his slugging and OPS. I'm still working on refining it, but I think this has a...
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And so it ends. For this year...
2006-10-15 02:07:00
Dan Haren pitched a good game, the A's got some hits, but Magglio Ordonez decided to finally show up for the Tigers. I'm not as upset as I initially thought I would be, since this has been coming for a couple days now. The A's had a great season, winning the AL West, and sweeping a very good Twins team for Oakland's first playoff series win since 1990. Detroit was simply the better team over these 4 games. Eric Chavez took a lot of heat for saying that, but he was right. They made very few mistakes, and took advantage of the A's miscues. I don't need an email from Tommy Lasorda, but I will still watch the rest of the NLCS and the World Series. I've got to get going on my season-in-review article for Beyond the Boxscore, and then... I can begin looking forward to all of the offseason Hot Stove action, and Spring Training, and then Opening Day.
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It's up to Danny now.
2006-10-14 09:53:00
And it comes down to this. Game Four, down 3 games to none, and it all rests in the splitter of Dan Haren and the dormant bats of the A's. Here's hoping Haren can outpitch Jeremy Bonderman, and the A's can outhit Placido Polanco.
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Mark Kiger Trivia
2006-10-14 08:52:00
Here's an interesting bit of trivia from yesterday's loss. When Mark Kiger entered the game in the bottom of the 8th as a defensive replacement, he made a major league first. He became the first player in major league history to make his big league debut in the postseason. That's pretty amazing. Also as a result of his entry into the game, there seems to have been a spike of google searches on Mark Kiger, and a lot of them seem to be leading people... here. Overnight, this humble blog has become the 6th ranked site when you google him. If you throw out the statistics-only results, autographed card, and AN comment, The Pastime is the top ranked source on Mark Kiger on Google. Here's hoping Kiger doesn't become the only player to have played in only a postseason game, and not a regular season game, and that I can write more about his days as an Oakland A.
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Sigh.
2006-10-14 07:39:00
I'm not giving up yet, but a 0-3 deficit is hard to swallow. I can hear the proverbial fat lady warming up, but I'm hoping the A's can put off her singing for a game or two more. I'd like to see Haren pitch well tomorrow, and the A's offense score at least a few runs. A win would allow Barry Zito one more start wearing the green and gold; a chance to redeem himself and go out on a higher note than Game One. So don't throw in the towel yet, but prepare for a long, hard offseason.
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The Most Important Game of 2006
2006-10-13 22:16:00
This is an incredibly important juncture in the 2006 A's season. If they lose today, it's a forgone conclusion that the Tigers win the series. I'll start writing my season-in-review article for Beyond the Boxscore, and we'll start counting down to pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training. If the A's win, though, they stay alive for another day, and revive hope. 0-2 is a tough thing to come back from, but 1-2 is feasible. They have to just go out there and play it one game at a time, like the old cliche. If Rich Harden has his good stuff today, the A's can take one back in the cold (and possible snow). I want to delay getting the email from Lasorda as long as possible. I haven't given up hope yet for the A's.
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Why Oakland Lost Game Two
2006-10-12 05:24:00
In Game Two, we saw good, we saw bad, and we saw a lot of ugly. The A's are simply playing like they don't want to win. The Good (sort of) - Mark Kotsay, Milton Bradley and Jay Payton are the only ones who are hitting. they're a combined 13-for-25 in the ALCS so far. They've notched 68% of the A's hits so far, and 5 of the 6 runs batted in. The problem is, they are the ONLY ones hitting. The rest of the lineup has been horrendous. Other than Eric Chavez's home run, they've done nothing. - The A's bullpen, when used, has been good. They've allowed just 6 hits over eight and one-third innings, with the only run coming on the solo shot by Granderson off of Huston Street. The Bad - With the exception of Milton Bradley and Mark Kotsay, this team looks uninspired. Up and down the bench, the A's look disengaged, a far cry from their usually upbeat attitide. They look like the Twins bench did last week in Game Two. We know what effect that had on the Twins chances of ...
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Game Two Preview
2006-10-11 08:06:00
Esteban Loaiza takes the hill against Justin Verlander for Game Two. Well, not literally. It's not like we're going to tune in and see some kind of American Gladiator battle on the pitchers mound between Loaiza and Verlander, going at it with foam staffs. Although that would be fun. I'm sure Steve Lyons would have commentary that's just as insightful as what he offered in Game One... Here are the stat lines for Verlander and Loaiza over their last 15 starts of the season. I tend to think the last 15 games are more indicative of how they're going to pitch than their whole season. Wow, I'm surprised. They are very, very alike. The only real differences lie in Loaiza's lower walk rate, and his higher percentage of unearned runs. Plus, he doesn't throw the ball 100, like Verlander does. Both pitchers tend to stay around the strike zone, keeping walks to a minimum. They don't have huge strikeout rates, but they rely on their defenses to take care of balls put in play to ge...
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Well, that was a weak attempt.
2006-10-11 07:45:00
The Tigers took advantage of too many Oakland mistakes tonight to take Game One. I'm not going to dwell on it and go over the things Oakland could have done better, but here are the areas I think the A's need to address to win: - Macha needs to use his deep pen. Zito was done an inning before he was pulled, and the Oakland pen shut out the Tigers for the rest of the game. - Oakland's failure to score with runners in scoring position. They get on base, but then are erased by double plays and untimely hitting. Macha should really get the runners moving a little more often, but with free swingers like Swisher, Jimenez and Payton in the lineup, that may not be a great idea, either. - Mental mistakes need to stop, now. The A's played error-free, perfect baseball against Minnesota. The loss of Ellis really hurts, but even Chavez and Swisher made mistakes, which is unlike them. - Hope Jerry Crawford doesn't get back behind the plate. His strike zone was awful tonight. There's a ...
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Harden is the Game 3 Starter
2006-10-11 00:06:00
I'm not sure how I feel about this news. From AN: "I was just watching Ken Macha's new conference before game 1 and he said that Harden is now officially the game 3 starter. He said that they specifically limited his pitch count yesterday so that he could go again on Friday in Detroit. He said that it was tough to push back Haren who has been great but that Harden was the man for now." Yesterday, I said that Harden could slot into the 3rd and 7th spots if he was healthy and pitched well in his fall league tune-up. He didn't pitch great in his start, but it wasn't terrible, either. "...Rich Harden might not have helped himself with a somewhat shaky outing in an instructional-league game in Phoenix on Monday. Harden allowed six hits and five runs in 3 1/3 innings, with the damage coming in his final inning. He didn't walk a batter, struck out four and hit 94 mph on the radar gun. "He looked like Rich Harden,'' assistant general manager David Forst said of the report he...
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Anibal & the Marlins
2006-09-14 15:36:06
Is there a better story this year than the Marlins ? Or a more under-reported one? They were written off as a terrible team, a AA level club of misfits and youngsters unready to play MLB baseball. At one point, they were 20 games under .500. They had a payroll of less than $15 million. There are 13 players in the majors who earn more than the entire Marlins team. And now they have not only become
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Utley: 35
2006-08-06 18:57:11
He did it again.The Phillies won 8-1, and Utley went 3-6 at the plate, extending his hit streak to 35 games, the longest by a 2B, and the 5th longest overall since DiMaggio set the mark at 56 in 1941.Player Team Streak YearJoe DiMaggio Yankees 56 1941Pete Rose Reds 44 1978Paul Molitor Brewers 39 1987Jimmy Rollins Phillies 38 2005-06Luis Castillo Marlins 35 2002Chase Utley Phillies 35 2006

No More Maple Bats
2006-03-30 22:31:00
One of the impressions that I came back from Spring Training with was that maple bats should be eliminated from Major League Baseball. Why? It's not because I think that players are hitting the ball better with them, and upsetting the competitive balance. It's not because I think maples are in danger of extinction. It's not that they're too expensive, and somehow influence kids to spend money on them. It's that maple bats are dangerous. Someone is going to get killed by one, and soon, if they are not eliminated from the game. In years past, the vast majority of bats were made from ash. Ash has been used to make bows and staffs and other things that need to be light and strong for thousands of years. It's a durable wood with long straight grain. It's nearly ideal for making bats. Maple came onto the scene a long time ago, along with hickory and oak, as alternative, experimental bats. People were looking for a different kind of wood, one that was slightly harder and denser t...
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